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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

yep, a few good garden variety t-storms tracking across the nw metro. won't amount to much, but that area has been prone to fires this last week and any additional precip can help. looks like the brazos valley is going to remain dry for now, and CLL was back at or above average again.

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Srain

Srain

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HPC morning update re: the Upper Ridge:

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN THE

FORECAST GUIDANCE...MOST DRAMATICALLY WITHIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

STILL...HIGHS BETWEEN 100 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR

PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Currently 103/7 (RH 3%) in El Paso and 106/31 in Amarillo at 3PM CDT. Amarillo may tie or break their all-time record high (108), either today or tomorrow.

Presidio may hit 110-112 today and tomorrow.

5PM CDT:

El Paso 106/4, RH 2% :stun:

Amarillo 108/25...this ties their all-time record high. We'll see if they broke the record between obs.

[lame joke] But it's a dry heat. :frostymelt:

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OHSnow

OHSnow

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All-time record high of 109 today in Amarillo. Breaks the previous all-time record high of 108, set on this date in 1990 and 1953 and set on June 27 and 28 in 1998. Records at Amarillo date to 1892.

In addition, the all-time record high of 109 set today could be tied or broken tomorrow.

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Srain

Srain

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There are some hints that the Ridge will break later in the coming week. Fingers crossed that the models are correct and some rain chances returning for the 4th of July holiday weekend verify.

gfs.gif

post-32-0-71774400-1309093845.gif

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msp

msp

Posted
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up, up, and away. maybe five consecutive 100+ this week at CLL. already an unpleasant 90/72; those 78F lows are brutal.

working on booking airfare down there for the 7th-12th. hopefully a nice weekend in san antonio. if history is any indication, expect rain on the 13th.

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msp

msp

Posted
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The RUC is showing a narrow corridor of 30kt surface winds over western OK later this afternoon. Talk about a blast furnace. That's right in the area where 110 degree readings are expected. Amazing.

childress at 108F with winds gusting above 30mph

lovely

mesa vista also at 108F

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Msalgado

Msalgado

Posted
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331520567.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1309131485&Signature=%2FHREc%2Fpg7TXYNaoAiB%2FRkUI3HNI%3D

Brand new fire in Northern NM today. This one is near Los Alamos and the picture is from Santa Fe. My crappy cell phone camera didn't do the pyrocumulus justice as they were really impressive. Winds have been as high as 40 mph today and the temps are in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the teens. 6% relative humidity is ridiculous. We really really need the monsoon to kick in.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
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All-time record high of 111 at Amarillo today, breaks the old record of 109 set on June 24, 2011. Records for the Amarillo area date to 1892.

All-time record high of 113 at Borger today, breaks the old record of 109 set on June 24, 2011. Records for Borger date to 1949.

All-time record high of 110 at Dalhart today, breaks the old record of 108 set on June 24, 2011. Records for Dalhart Airport date to 1948.

All-time record high of 117 at Childress today, ties the record of 117 set on June 27, 1994. Records for the Childress area date to 1893.

In addition, the high of 112 at Lubbock was the second hottest on record. The current all-time record is 114, set on June 27, 1994. Records for the Lubbock area date to 1911.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

IMBY post.

Glass sixtheenth full optimism, 1.7 inch PW on the CRP sounding, and IAH winds SSW at 9 mph, its wouldn't seem absolutely impossible for isolated sea breeze storms. Lapse rates are unimpressive, but it is almost July.

CRP.gif

Edit to Add- Satellite and surface (IAH 10 mph gust 18), seabreeze looks darned unlikely.

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Msalgado

Msalgado

Posted
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The fire I posted about above has grown to nearly 50,000 acres in under 24 hours. Los Alamos National Labs is severely threatend as fire was just outside of their boundaries earlier today and the town of Los Alamos itself is threatened. The Cerro Grande fire 11 years ago burned some of these areas and destroyed many homes in the town as well as buildings in the lab so this is a sadly familiar situation for residents. Fire conditions today aren't as bad as they were yesterday but they are still pretty bad.

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Srain

Srain

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Perhaps a bit of good news in the medium range as the Ridge shifts a bit N. HPC:

WITH WARM CORE RIDGING STUCK TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE

SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES REMAIN

POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN AND

WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD WORSEN DROUGHT

CONDITIONS. WITH THE RIDGES RETROGRESSION INTO THE WEST EARLY

NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD REACH 120 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE

DESERT. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHEAST

AND FLORIDA AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY

WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHOULD DRAW LITTLE...IF

ANY...GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE

COUNTRY. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN

ROCKIES/THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LEADING TO SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS /A MONSOON-LIKE REGIME/ FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY

NEXT WEEK. THE 17Z COLLABORATION CALL WITH NHC LED TO NO CHANGES

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THREE DAYS. SEE THE

LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR INFORMATION ON THIS ACTIVE

TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EXTREME

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

post-32-0-08240600-1309209294.gif

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