Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[My Weather Today]

Edited the title to include our neighbors in Louisiana. If they want to join us, they're more than welcome. After all, we are neighbors and share the same weather and most of the State is W of the Mississippi...

Thanks Srain. Now all of the Lousiana weather geeks have a thread they can call home. It also gives us an oppurtunity to discuss weather events & issues east of the Sabine River that others may overlook.

[bubba hotep]

We are technically sandwiched between the two watches but we have some nice storms to our west. I won't wait up for them but if they hold together then I am sure I will get the wake up call.

[Flexo]

Even though it refuses to rain here with doubts that we'll see anything tomorrow, at least areas of West Texas that have been dealing with so many fires lately have seen some very heavy rainfall today. Radar estimates show up to 8 inches in some spots...

Meanwhile, it keeps raining across that random spot in N Texas that's not even in a drought.

[Ed Lizard]

Glass almost half full optimist, even if they die before morning, the storms crossing I-35 should lay down a boundary or two somewhere near my lawn.

[TXWXCHX]

We are technically sandwiched between the two watches but we have some nice storms to our west. I won't wait up for them but if they hold together then I am sure I will get the wake up call.

An absoutely beautiful bow front has formed out to my west; I'm just giddy with excitement at the prospect of rain... temp 81.1 degrees, pressure 29.80 and falling, with an inflow of 20mph from the East!!

eeeeee

[Flexo]

Glass almost half full optimist, even if they die before morning, the storms crossing I-35 should lay down a boundary or two somewhere near my lawn.

there's no way that makes it here

it's probably not going to rain here again until next year

do yourself a favor and go watch some TV or play some Yahtzee or something...

[Flexo]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1047 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING

RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST CONTINUES

TO RACE THIS WAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND LOWER POPS

SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CARRIED CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TOMORROW.

ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON QPF.

WORD HAS IT THAT A LOT OF SOUTHEAST TEXANS WOULD NOT MIND BEING WOKEN

UP TO RAIN AND THUNDER TONIGHT. HEY MOTHER NATURE - PLEASE DON`T

DISAPPOINT US.

You know what HGX? You're absolutely right

Hell, I'll go outisde and dance around in my banana suit singing Barry Manilow if it actually rains tonight

[Srain]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1047 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING

RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST CONTINUES

TO RACE THIS WAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND LOWER POPS

SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CARRIED CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TOMORROW.

ALSO MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON QPF.

WORD HAS IT THAT A LOT OF SOUTHEAST TEXANS WOULD NOT MIND BEING WOKEN

UP TO RAIN AND THUNDER TONIGHT. HEY MOTHER NATURE - PLEASE DON`T

DISAPPOINT US.

You know what HGX? You're absolutely right

Hell, I'll go outisde and dance around in my banana suit singing Barry Manilow if it actually rains tonight

Hmmm...is that the backup band warming up that I'm hearing....

[Ed Lizard]

there's no way that makes it here

it's probably not going to rain here again until next year

do yourself a favor and go watch some TV or play some Yahtzee or something...

Eternal optimist, me.

[Ed Lizard]

I now hear rain on the roof, what a rare sound.

In a few weeks, I'll go back to complaining about 3 or 4 years straight without any severe weather, but for now, this is good.

[Srain]

Heavy rain with thunder ATM. What a sight!

[Ed Lizard]

My radar indicates a tornado warning down near Lavaca Bay...

Edit to add: I thought Indianola became a ghost town after the second hurricane destroyed it...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

838 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 832 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF INDIANOLA...OR 7 MILES EAST OF SEADRIFT...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

INDIANOLA...

MAGNOLIA BEACH...

[Ed Lizard]

New cells developing than moving across the outflow boundary. That is potentially happy...

[Srain]

E-mail from Jeff:

What a sight to behold on the radar this morning! Many areas will see more rainfall in a few hours today than in the last 100 days across the area. Widespread moderate to heavy rain along a massive MCS over the area stretching from northern Liberty County to the north side of Houston to near Victoria drifting southeast. All major wildfires have seen at least .50-1.0 inch of rain overnight and have likely been extinguished. Leading edge of MCS is moving southeast around 5-10mph as flow has become increasingly parallel to the surface cold pool boundary. Cells are also moving south to north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into this line leading to cell mergers and a quick burst of heavy rainfall. Dry ground is soaking up what falls and after the initial line a widespread soaking moderate to light rain is falling…just what is needed over such a parched area. While this will help with the fire danger it will do little to end the drought with rainfall departures running 20-26 inches over the area we would need days of rainfall. Expect the current activity to gradually weaken as it moves southward toward the coast while additional storms develop over the waters and move inland. Satellite shows widespread cirrus anvil canopy over the state and it will take time for this to burn off today and allowing heating to recover the low level air mass. Air mass should recover by late afternoon and leftover meso scale boundaries from this morning’s activity should start to fire off along with possibly the seabreeze front. Not overly impressive with the potential given the widespread overturning the air mass is undergoing currently, and typically after large MCS’s cross the region it takes about 12 hours to recover the air mass and destabilize again which puts us close to dark and the loss of heating. Tonight should see less activity and what does form should be focused near the coast where a possible coastal trough forms. Activity that develops near the coast will spread inland early Thursday, but moisture already begins to decrease from north to south and rain chances fall, so we will take what we can get today. Friday-next week: Upper ridge rebuilds over the area with the air mass drying and capping returning ending the possibility of additional rains. Seabreeze will not have enough moisture to work with and will not be able to overcome the warm layer aloft. Surface fuels will begin to dry out and winds will increase out of the south so the wildfire danger will be increasing. Given the widespread soaking rains this morning, would expect some of the surface grasses to recover some greenness and hold back the fire threat some next week, but larger trees are dying rapidly especially north of I-10 and this will add greater fuels that will not green due to rainfall. So the fire threat will be returning, but not as severe as this past week.

[Ed Lizard]

On the radio, Harris County is banning fireworks, I imagine all the local counties are (normally fireworks stands set up just outside the Houston city limits). But I'd just bet they'll be idiots who have some in a shed that will shoot them off on July 4th, and that should be far enough away if we don't get any significant rain after today the grass will be drying enough to support some fires.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/22/11 1421Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1345Z JBN

.

LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...

LOCATION...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

ATTN WFOS...EWX...

ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PRODUCING MOD/HVY RAIN

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A

LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NE LA SWWD TO THE CNTRL TX GULF

COAST. THIS LINE HAS SLOWED ITS SEWD PROGRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY THE

PAST FEW HRS AND HAS BEGUN TO GET HUNG UP IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE STRONG

SOUTHERLY INFLOW IS FEEDING INTO THE LINE. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW

SOME COOLING/EXPANDING ALONG THE LINE WITH A FEW CELL MERGERS TAKING PLACE

ALONG THE TX COAST. RAIN RATES IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ARE AVERAGING

1-2"/HR BASED ON SFC OBS FROM ACROSS TX/LA. TO THE NW OF THE LINE A

STEADIER MOD RAIN FOLLOWS THE INITIAL BURTS OF HVY RAIN WITH RATES OF

0.1-0.25"/HR POSSIBLE. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OCCURRING, THIS MAY ALLOW

FOR A QUICK 1-3" OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS LA AND THE TX COAST THE

NEXT 2-3 HRS. WHILE 3 HR FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING 3-4" OR HIGHER,

SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND AN ISOLATED FF THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430Z-1730Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT THE NEXT FEW HRS

ACROSS THE TX COAST UNTIL THE MAIN LINE MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF. THE

HVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LA/MS WHERE THE LINE IS MOVING ONLY

SLOWLY EWD AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP

THE NEXT FEW HRS.

[msp]

2.44" at easterwood this morning!

only like 16, 17 more to go?

[TXWXCHX]

Hell, I'll go outisde and dance around in my banana suit singing Barry Manilow if it actually rains tonight

I do hope you took pictures... 2.25 inches of RAIN in my back yard WOOOOOOOOooo

[jasons]

So the big question is...now what? Does the line offshore evolve into a coastal trough and cut us off from any more development? Does the area to our West and Northwest get enough heating to develop another round and send it this way? Even if that happened, would it even make it or would it fall apart when it reached the cold pool? Will the cold pool still even be around later tonight? Will we recover for another round tomorrow? Lots of options on the table right now.

[msp]

looks done for at least a little while across most of the state, but far south texas is continuing to get whacked.

flood advisories are out and storm total radar estimates are topping 5" in the valley.

[wxmx]

Would this dent the drought?

[Ed Lizard]

Would this dent the drought?

I think most would welcome an 18Z GFS fantasy cane. Better odds than the Powerball, anyway. Thats me, naturally optimistic.

[Srain]

.CLIMATE...THE RAINFALL FROM TODAY HAS FINALLY ENDED THE RECORD-SETTING STREAK

WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA. TODAY

WAS THE BIGGEST RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SINCE JANUARY 24TH.

TODAY`S RAINFALL TOTALS...

COLLEGE STATION 2.45 INCHES

LEAGUE CITY/NWS 2.35 INCHES

CLEAR LAKE/JSC 2.03 INCHES

SUGAR LAND 1.72 INCHES

ANGLETON 1.48 INCHES

BAYTOWN 1.32 INCHES

HUNTSVILLE 1.23 INCHES

HOUSTON/HOBBY 1.08 INCHES

PALACIOS 1.08 INCHES

TOMBALL 0.91 INCH (ESTIMATED)

HOUSTON/IAH 0.80 INCH

GALVESTON 0.73 INCH

PEARLAND 0.49 INCH

DRY STREAK INFORMATION BELOW...

HOUSTON - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LESS THAN 0.50 INCH RAINFALL:

1. 148 DAYS - ENDING 6/21/2011

2. 93 DAYS - ENDING 2/13/2009

3. 84 DAYS - ENDING 11/18/1893

4. 82 DAYS - ENDING 1/26/1952 AND 2/8/1918

5. 81 DAYS - ENDING 5/17/1939

(RECORDS SINCE 1888)

HOUSTON - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCH RAINFALL:

1. 99 DAYS - ENDING 6/21/2011

2. 71 DAYS - ENDING 1/28/1959

3. 67 DAYS - ENDING 10/14/1975

4. 66 DAYS - ENDING 6/03/1937

5. 64 DAYS - ENDING 9/20/1940

(RECORDS SINCE 1888)

HOUSTON/HOBBY - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS LESS THAN 0.25 INCH RAINFALL:

1. 99 DAYS - ENDING 6/21/2011

2. 84 DAYS - ENDING 2/05/1971

3. 68 DAYS - ENDING 8/25/1956

4. 60 DAYS - ENDING 4/24/1960

5. 58 DAYS - ENDING 4/23/1953

(RECORDS SINCE 1931)

GALVESTON - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCH RAINFALL:

1. 108 DAYS - ENDING 6/21/2011

2. 102 DAYS - ENDING 6/20/2008

3. 99 DAYS - ENDING 6/25/1906

4. 89 DAYS - ENDING 4/26/1925 AND 3/31/1916

5. 82 DAYS - ENDING 8/09/1930

(RECORDS SINCE 1871)

[Srain]

The Coastal trough looks to keep any rain chances confined to Coastal areas today before the Upper Ridge builds back in and hot and dry weather returns for the weekend. Eyes will turn toward the Western Caribbean/SW Gulf as the models are converging on a solution that develops some sort of tropical mischief in the Bay Of Campeche by late weekend/early next week. NWS Houston/Galveston snip on the situation in the medium range...

RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE S PLAINS AND

MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE THEN BEGINS

TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE C PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF MUCH

STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE. THE GFS TREND IS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE.

THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ECMWF DOES AS WELL BUT

KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH AND MOVES IT INTO MEXICO. THE CANADIAN AND

GFS BRING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO THE TX COAST. THINK

THE RIDGE WILL BE HARD TO BREAK DOWN JUST YET SO WILL KEEP WITH

THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP

THE FORECAST HOT AND DRY AGAIN.

NWS Dallas/Ft Worth:

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL

SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY

AND EVENTUALLY MOVING IT ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE FAR

SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST

INTENSE WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT AND IS NOTORIOUS FOR RAPIDLY

DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES OUT OF SURFACE WAVES SO ITS SOLUTION

WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. WHAT MAY BE OF MORE

IMPORTANCE TO NORTH TEXAS IS THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF 2.5 INCH PLUS

PWS WHICH WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DIGS A

LARGE TROF INTO THE WESTERN US WHICH ALLOWS THE 700MB RIDGE TO

SLIDE EASTWARD RESULTING IN THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD

INTO TEXAS. WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC...KEEPING THE

BEST MOISTURE WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO...THIS WILL NEED TO BE

MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD MEAN INCREASING

RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

NWS Austin/San Antonio:

THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT

NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER

PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWFA.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY

TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS

TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.

ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.

NWS Lake Charles:

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE

SOUTHERN GULF. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE NOTED THAT FAR OUT...WITH

A LOT DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THIS

TIME...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED...AS IT HAS THE STRONGER

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WHICH HAS BEEN GOOD SO FAR THIS SUMMER) AND A

FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO

CONSENSUS...WHICH WOULD JUST KEEP HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

[Ed Lizard]

Just a moderate shower at my house 1960/Veterans area, but I-45 had high water on the feeder in the usual places.

[Srain]

A left over boundary is draped across SE TX this morning. Perhaps with a bit of daytime heating, more storms can fire off this afternoon before we dry out....

[Ed Lizard]

^^

Radar seems to be hinting a seabreeze boundary may be forming, although I don't see anything mondo impressive looking towards the coast from my window.

Interesting question on the local forum about the offshore blob. GFS does take until well into Saturday to dissipate it, even as its 500 mb support weakens and moves away.

[msp]

back to the 90s today, and the 12z NAM says no rain this afternoon for anyone inland from the coast

[Ed Lizard]

Ground truth (call to my wife)- little cell North of BW8 and West of I-45 is tragically missing the lawn.

NWS CRP on the tropical non-player in our local weather...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TROPICAL ACTIVITY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF

NEXT WEEK. GFS IS STILL A CLEAR NORTHERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE PROCEEDED

ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT MOISTURE POOL AND ANY CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN

WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...INLINE WITH THE NON-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.

[Ed Lizard]

Ground truth (call to my wife)- little cell North of BW8 and West of I-45 is tragically missing the lawn.

NWS CRP on the tropical non-player in our local weather...

The cell developed a new appendage to its Southeast!

About 2 minutes after getting off phone with you, it started.

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