Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[msp]

99F and climbing at CLL... two ahead of yesterday's pace (103F was high)

102F (HI of 105F) at 3pm... record of 103F should fall or be tied.

[Portastorm]

102F (HI of 105F) at 3pm... record of 103F should fall or be tied.

105 here in Austin at 3 p.m., broke the 2008 record of 103.

[msp]

105 here in Austin at 3 p.m., broke the 2008 record of 103.

ouch. CLL up to 104F now, 108F HI. georgetown, temple, new braunfels at 104, waco at 105.

seems crazy to me as a minnesotan that these aren't at heat advisory criteria yet in the hgx and ewx fa's.

[Srain]

Cotulla 108F and San Angelo 107F.

[bubba hotep]

102.5 here and some storms firing to our W along the dryline

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 504

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH

NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 499...WW 500...WW 501...WW 502...WW 503...

[Guru Of Reason]

Laredo, TX is at 111, and reached 113 yesterday.

[bubba hotep]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

TXC353-441-182315- /O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0123.110618T2221Z-110618T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

521 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN NOLAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS... TAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 518 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOLAN...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLACKWELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... QUARTER SIZE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS... A FEW VEHICLE DENTS... MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE... SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED... UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND... SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE... POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HAPPY VALLEY BY 525 PM CDT... LAKE ABILENE BY 600 PM CDT... VIEW BY 610 PM CDT... BUFFALO GAP...DYESS AFB AND TYE BY 615 PM CDT... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 285. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3252 10014 3252 9964 3209 9964 3209 10047 3226 10045 TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 250DEG 20KT 3224 10019 $

[bubba hotep]

107 out in Mineral Wells with a warned cell moving into the area

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

TXC363-182345- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0408.110618T2243Z-110618T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 543 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... GRAFORD AROUND 615 PM... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3293 9858 3296 9852 3295 9843 3301 9843 3300 9806 3285 9806 3258 9858 TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 241DEG 25KT 3286 9849 $ 85/NH

[Srain]

Rain chances are looking better by the day. The Canadian and GFS now appear to be the outliers with moving the frontal trough off the Coast too quickly while the more sensible Euro solution keeps rain chances going at least for Coastal areas into next weekend. Interesting to note that the Euro is also suggesting some tropical mischief in the longer range in the Bay of Campeche. Boundaries draped near the Gulf are worth watching this time of year, IMO.

[Srain]

Sweet....

[Srain]

A wide view of all the tropical activity/moisture, both in the EPAC and NW Caribbean. The 12Z WRF suggests a lot of moisture across Coastal TX/LA and a frontal boundary draped across N Central TX on Wednesday.

[Srain]

Triple digit readings all across TX this afternoon. Fortunately, rain chances are going to increase beginning late Tuesday across the Lone Star State and Louisiana as a tropical wave heads toward the Coast and a frontal boundary sags across N Central TX.

[Ed Lizard]

meh.

[Srain]

SPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk for N Central TX and the approach of a tropical wave will enhance rainfall chances thru Thursday. Fingers crossed we all see some rain to help ease this wildfire threat.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO NCNTRL TX...

WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ACROSS AR AND EVENTUALLY STALL

OVER NCNTRL TX...STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS OK/TX SHOULD EASILY

REMOVE CAPPING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FOR LOW LEVEL PARCELS TO FREELY

CONVECT PROVIDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL

UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTION

THAT EVOLVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE

COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION...THERE MAY BE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE

SCENARIOS BOTH EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD.

[Ed Lizard]

SPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk for N Central TX and the approach of a tropical wave will enhance rainfall chances thru Thursday. Fingers crossed we all see some rain to help ease this wildfire threat.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO NCNTRL TX...

WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ACROSS AR AND EVENTUALLY STALL

OVER NCNTRL TX...STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS OK/TX SHOULD EASILY

REMOVE CAPPING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FOR LOW LEVEL PARCELS TO FREELY

CONVECT PROVIDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL

UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTION

THAT EVOLVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE

COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION...THERE MAY BE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE

SCENARIOS BOTH EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HPC also trimming back their numbers to the 1" ballpark, which I guess will provide a week or two break in the wildfires. Should be dry enough by July 4th that everyone ignoring fireworks bans will really be risking the homes of the near and not so near neighbors.

[bubba hotep]

Just took a real quick look and the 12z NAM and NAMx appear to favor N Texas and Louisiana for rain.

[wxmx]

Let's try to time empty Ed's optimistic glass. I feel like the new Ji of the Central forum

Unfortunately, I'm being half serious. People not getting tropical related rains this season will be in deep, deep (and dry) ****

[bubba hotep]

Nice batch of storms blowing through here over the past hour.

[Srain]

WD88 showing streamer showers typical of a summertime pattern moving across SE TX this morning. The 03Z SREF suggests a couple of decent rounds of showers and storms may be ahead thru Wednesday across the Lone Star State. It's nice to see some rain and hopefully the fire areas will receive enough to slow any future growth.

[bubba hotep]

Nice batch of storms blowing through here over the past hour.

Still getting some rain with lots of lightning in the area.

[Ed Lizard]

A normal Summer day? Streamers at dawn? Not exactly a drought buster, but "woot", and rain in the Trinity and Brazos watersheds up North, 'woot'!

[am19psu]

Looks like a nice battle shaping up between the Euro and the GFS for how much moisture gets into E TX. I prefer the Euro, only because it matches the ensemble forecasted MJO pattern better.

[wxmx]

Looks like a nice battle shaping up between the Euro and the GFS for how much moisture gets into E TX. I prefer the Euro, only because it matches the ensemble forecasted MJO pattern better.

...and after that

How fun is to carry my gloom and doom wherever I go.

[Ed Lizard]

...and after that

How fun is to carry my gloom and doom wherever I go.

Steve is his usually glass 7/8ths full optimistic on the tropical thread, and, in this case, the GFS run he posted is inside the resolution lobotomy. Maybe you're 9 or 10 days from drought relief and a drive down to Tamaulipas.

[Srain]

I just call them as I see them, Ed.

[Ed Lizard]

New MD for NE Texas.

3 day high bandwidth TPW loop CIMSS seems to confirm SPC RUC mesoanalysis... Best moisture just missing my lawn.

[Srain]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

500 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 500

PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF

FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...WW 533...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY IN

COVERAGE/STRENGTH OVER CNTRL AND SW TX LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE AS

HEATING FURTHER ERODES CINH ON NRN FRINGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR MASS

LEFT UN-OVERTURNED BY LAST NIGHTS MCS. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO

PROPAGATE GENERALLY SW FROM EXISTING STORM CLUSTER SW OF SHV.

DEGREE AND DISTRIBUTION OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND MODERATE DEEP

SHEAR WITH SIZABLE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR

SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE

HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE CNTRL AND W

TX STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COUPLE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT

PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SVR THREAT.

[bubba hotep]

We had a really nice round of storms early this morning and might get another round tonight

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0621 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534...

VALID 212321Z - 220015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534 CONTINUES.

AREA ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NE OF WW 534 IS BEING MONITORED

FOR A PROBABLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE INTO PARTS OF WRN AR.

23Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM

NEAR HRO TO GYI TO 20 S MWL. TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED

ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK TO W-CNTRL AR WITHIN A WEAKLY CONVERGENT

ENVIRONMENT...AIDED BY A GRAVITY WAVE THAT EMANATED WWD FROM

SWD-SINKING TSTM CLUSTER OVER NERN/E-CNTRL TX. AIR MASS HAS BECOME

STRONGLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000

J/KG COMMON. 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SAMPLED IN THE HASKELL OK AND

DE QUEEN AR WIND PROFILERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS

AND ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32699810 33739659 35479404 35809315 35769268 35399261

34799301 33729426 32799539 32349628 32209777 32699810

[bubba hotep]

[My Weather Today]

I made that suggest not long ago and think it would be a good fit. I have never seen a Louisiana post over in the Southeast Sub-forum and when there was an EF-3 tornado in Louisiana the discussion was in the Central / Western. However, I don't think there are many posters at all from Louisiana on the board.

This thread does move along slow but there is only a small group of posters and not a lot of run-to-run model speculation. We had a few really nice events this past winter in the DFW area and there was very little discussion leading up the events and then during the events. A similar type of event would have probably generated multiple 50+ page threads in some of the other sub-forums.

I noticed that as well, so that's why I suggested adding them to this discussion. I've actually been kinda wondering if we should add Oklahoma as well. Maybe it's just me but it seems that Texas weather posters always have had good relationship with Oklahoma and Lousiana weather posters on all of the weather forums have visited in the past.