Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[TXWXCHX]

Just a disorganzied slug of tropical moisture...

I am glass quarter full optimistic!

YAY I'm thirsty... I'll take it! Man we are DRY here - but even so, had we not had that rainfall earlier this month it would have been much, much worse. Here's hoping a positive ENSO will change this weather pattern by fall...

[Srain]

It's rather interesting to see how moisture from a future Hurricane Beatiz (EPAC) as well as deep tropical moisture flowing N and NW out the Caribbean and a frontal boundary may all come together to provide for our increasing rain chances next week...

[bubba hotep]

Yeah, things are starting to look up for some Texas rain but it looks like W of 35 could miss out on the party. We were lucky up this way and had a relatively wet spring but have been dry the last few weeks. It looks like we should do okay up this was but the real winners could be E Texas and Louisiana.

[Ed Lizard]

HPC isn't on board even down here yet...

MID LEVEL BREAK IN THE EPAC AND WEST ATLC/GULFMEX RIDGING SEEN IN

GUIDANCE AND ENS MEAN LATE PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A NWD

SHIFT IN VORTICITY MAXIMA COMING NWD ALONG THE ERN MEXICAN COAST

INTO TX/LA. THIS HAS BEEN A RECURRING MODEL FEATURE FOR MORE THAN

SEVERAL DAYS AND WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MUCH NEEDED

RAINFALL BUT REMAINS SUSPECT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

ROTH/ROSENSTEIN

[Flexo]

Yeah, it's still in fantasy land, but the good news is that there's teleconnection support. The Ukie MJO model was alone with bringing a rather strong MJO wave to phase 1, while the GFS and Euro were slower with it, stalling it in weak phase 4, which is not that good. Now, the latter two have been trending toward the Ukie, while this is showing an even stronger wave. The -AO is forecasted to weaken beyond day 8 now, so ridging centered around 30N should weaken a bit, giving credence to a possible ridging break.

Any ideas for how long this potential pattern may last?

Three days of rain and then back to dry will make me cry

[Ed Lizard]

I'm going to remain glass quarter full optimistic. Happy 850 mb and 700 mb level relative humidities per latest Euro day 6 and day 7...

[Srain]

Sage advice from Brownsville NWS this afternoon and certainly why forecasters are reluctant to jump fully onboard any rain chances...

WITH THIS SAID SOME OF THE MODELS

HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MUCH DEEPER FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE

WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND POSSIBLY

INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE

EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ COULD GET

PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE

EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL

PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN

INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE FROM THE WESTERN GULF...THE RIO

GRANDE VALLEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.

UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION

FORMATION IN THE FORM OF STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN

SPREADING NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST

ADD SILENT 10 POPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE

WEEKEND. WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THIS LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL

CONTINUE TO LIVE BY THE SAYING WHEN IN DOUBT LEAVE IT OUT. HOWEVER

WE WILL CONTINUE TO POSITIVELY...THINK...RAIN.

[jasons]

I just keep telling myself 'it can't last forever...it can't last forever...'

Getting a little excited now about next week...

[My Weather Today]

Discuss...at the suggestion of Ian, I'll add New Mexico to our discussions as well...

I don't know how everyone else feels, but I would really like to see the state of Lousiana added to these thread discussions as well.

Do you all realize this thread was started back on February 6, 2011? Do you guys know how many 50+ page threads have come and gone on American Weather since 02/06/2011? It just hasn't been a whole heck of a lot to talk about in this region for the first 6 months of this year. I try not to complain about the weather situation too much for things could always be worse with wide-spread flash flooding, high risk tornado outbreaks, and major hurricanes rolling through. Though painfully boring, personally I would rather deal with a major drought with a few rain events spinkled in between as oppose to the former possiblities. But of course at some point, even a major drought can be just as devastaing and catastrophic as those other events, maybe just not quite as dramatic.

[bubba hotep]

I don't know how everyone else feels, but I would really like to see the state of Lousiana added to these thread discussions as well.

Do you all realize this thread was started back on February 6, 2011? Do you guys know how many 50+ page threads have come and gone on American Weather since 02/06/2011? It just hasn't been a whole heck of a lot to talk about in this region for the first 6 months of this year. I try not to complain about the weather situation too much for things could always be worse with wide-spread flash flooding, high risk tornado outbreaks, and major hurricanes rolling through. Though painfully boring, personally I would rather deal with a major drought with a few rain events spinkled in between as oppose to the former possiblities. But of course at some point, even a major drought can be just as devastaing and catastrophic as those other events, maybe just not quite as dramatic.

I made that suggest not long ago and think it would be a good fit. I have never seen a Louisiana post over in the Southeast Sub-forum and when there was an EF-3 tornado in Louisiana the discussion was in the Central / Western. However, I don't think there are many posters at all from Louisiana on the board.

This thread does move along slow but there is only a small group of posters and not a lot of run-to-run model speculation. We had a few really nice events this past winter in the DFW area and there was very little discussion leading up the events and then during the events. A similar type of event would have probably generated multiple 50+ page threads in some of the other sub-forums.

[Srain]

Edited the title to include our neighbors in Louisiana. If they want to join us, they're more than welcome. After all, we are neighbors and share the same weather and most of the State is W of the Mississippi...

[bubba hotep]

Edited the title to include our neighbors in Louisiana. If they want to join us, they're more than welcome. After all, we are neighbors and share the same weather and most of the State is W of the Mississippi...

Excellent! Now there won't be a thread war if a hurricane can't decide between Sabine Pass and Holly Beach! However, I really hope we don't see that. Maybe just a Cat 1?

[Ed Lizard]

GFS has a nice inverted trough, almost trying to close a low in a week.

Bummer no support from other models. Its own ensembles do not seem to be on the crazy train of tropical depression/tropical storm drought? What drought? fun.

[Srain]

Apparently the HPC believes the trough/frontal boundary could be a focal point for rain next week. There is a split in the between the models regarding just how strong/deep that trough will be as well as how fast it will move. Then add to the mix the deep tropical moisture to our S and you can see the cautious nature of the various forecasts.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Drought but some hope‏

Incredible drought conditions continue across the entire region with several cities now starting mandatory and voluntary water restrictions effective today.

Extreme wildfire danger remains in place today through the weekend along with record high temperatures this weekend.

However hope appears on the horizon as the tropics look to come to live over the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Discussion:

It is brutal with the heat and dryness and vegetation, even large trees, are starting to suffer with the lack of rainfall. Upper level ridging over MX will build over TX over the next 24 hours with surface temperatures increasing into the low 100’s during the afternoon hours likely breaking records. Strong winds have returned to the region resulting in warm overnight lows and afternoon dewpoints south of I-10 have not been mixing out much forcing heat index values toward 104-107 or just shy of heat advisory criteria. North of I-10 mixing as allowing afternoon RH to fall to near 35% supporting extreme fire weather concerns with the gusty southerly winds.

Expect very warm conditions over the weekend with highs into the 100’s and lows near 80 with no rainfall. Starting Monday the stubborn upper ridge shifts far to the northeast of the area as a trough plowing across the north plains. The tail end of this trough will break off and create a shear axis or weakness across the state of TX lowering mid level heights and reducing the capping. At the same time the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean Sea will surge NW across the Gulf of Mexico toward this weakness in the height field. PWS of 2.0-2.4 inches will move NW from the Yucatan and toward the TX coast by Tuesday.

Air mass becomes very tropical by late Tuesday as PWS start to exceed the magic 2.0 inch range. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on this surge of deep moisture Tuesday afternoon as the air mass goes uncapped and trigger temperatures fall to the mid 80’s. Wednesday and Thursday look like the wettest days as PWS peak in the 2.2-2.4 inch range supporting the threat of widespread heavy rainfall. GFS attempts to develop a surface low pressure reflection off the NE MX coast around the middle of the week and moves this feature northward into the shear axis over TX and inland around Matagorda Bay. At this time will keep the tropical wave axis as an open wave and not close off a surface low, but it is possible that some weak tropical development could spin up near the coast toward the middle/end of next week.

At this point given the multiple model runs showing this event feel rain chances will start on Tuesday and really ramp up on Wednesday and Thursday. Will go with 50% for Wednesday and Thursday for now as we must not forget how hard rain has been to come by over the past several months however if models continue to show this event then chances will need to be pushed into the 70-80% range by early next week. Finger are crossed.

Drought/Heat:

BUSH IAH has already recorded 4 100+ degree days this June, typically we record 100+ only 3 times in a whole year.

Crockett has reached 100+ 11 times in June and Huntsville 8

As of today June 2011 is the warmest ever record at IAH, Hobby, and Galveston.

Houston has now endured 4 months without an inch of rainfall…this has never happened before.

Hobby Airport has had 1 day of rainfall (.19 of an inch) out of the last 92 days.

The period from Oct 2010 to June 16, 2011 is that driest period ever recorded at IAH and Hobby shattering the previous records

IAH: 12.84 inches of rainfall (old record 15.05 inches in 1917)

Hobby: 16.07 inches of rainfall (old record 16.97 inches in 1956)

College Station: Second driest behind 1925 (1925: 9.15 in, 2011: 9.79 inches, 1917: 13.52 inches)

Based on the rainfall data above this is likely the most severe short term drought ever experienced in the City of Houston weather history.

It is even more astounding when looking at the period from Feb-June 2011. This period has been incredibly dry.

IAH: 2.02 (2011) previous record 5.48 (1996). 2011 for this period has 11.5% of its rainfall.

Hobby: 1.31 (2011) previous record 4.99 (1963). 2011 for this period has 7.3% of its rainfall

Rainfall Deficits since last October:

Bellville: -21.74

Brenham: -21.01

College Station: -19.80

Columbus: -22.02

Conroe: -22.31

Freeport: -18.78

Hobby: -19.64

IAH: -20.74

Huntsville: -23.71

Katy: -19.08

Matagorda: -18.72

New Caney: -19.37

Tomball: -25.24

65% of the state of TX is now in exceptional drought or the worst category on the US Drought Monitor. With 89% in extreme or exceptional at staggering amount of land area. All SE TX counties except Houston County and Jackson County are classified in exceptional drought with Houston and Jackson in extreme drought.

So far for 2011 the drought has resulted in 1.4 billion dollars in crop and cattle losses across TX

Numerous wildfires continue to develop across the region. The KBDI index now exceeds 700 in 11 SE TX counties on the scale of 0-800 (0=saturated and 800=no moisture). Harris County has a value of 734 and Montgomery County 745. Brazoria County has moved to 747. Values of these magnitudes support explosive fire growth and rapid dying of vegetation including grasses, shrubs, and large trees. All 23 counties in SE TX have burn bans in place with 215 across the state out of 254 counties. Vegetation health is beyond poor in un-irrigated locations and numerous trees including Oaks, Pines, and Palms are dying from lack of rainfall.

Water Restrictions:

The City of Galveston and League City enacted stage 3 drought plans yesterday with now mandatory water restrictions in place. Residents watering outside of the determined days and times will be subject to fines.

Conroe enacted stage 2 drought contingency plans last week, no outside water use is allowed during daylight hours.

Voluntary Water Restrictions:

Sugar Land

Pearland

Huntsville

Friendswood

The Woodlands

La Marque

Hitchcock

Bayou Vista

New Waverly

Riverside

[jasons]

I made that suggest not long ago and think it would be a good fit. I have never seen a Louisiana post over in the Southeast Sub-forum and when there was an EF-3 tornado in Louisiana the discussion was in the Central / Western. However, I don't think there are many posters at all from Louisiana on the board.

This thread does move along slow but there is only a small group of posters and not a lot of run-to-run model speculation. We had a few really nice events this past winter in the DFW area and there was very little discussion leading up the events and then during the events. A similar type of event would have probably generated multiple 50+ page threads in some of the other sub-forums.

Dare I say it, but I think it's mainly because there are already some established and active threads for Texas/LA on other sites. Plus, this forum originated mainly to discuss winter storms along the east coast which doesn't engage a whole lot of interest from places like Texas. On the flip side, I bet a majority of the pro mets on this site never wander over to the Texas and Western US threads.

It takes time to grow the audience in the other sub-forums.

[weunice]

I guess as someone from Louisiana I find myself checking this sub-forum the most because the SE forum seems to be focused more on places like Alabama, Georgia etc. I find the same at another forum which is predominantly Alabama centric. Of course it makes sense that there is a large south Texas and Louisiana contingent on a tropical forum elsewhere.

[Ed Lizard]

OK, it is almost certain the GFS trying to develop a TC from an elongated trough right on the Tamaulipas coastline is fantasy, but as an ever optimistic guy, I thought I'd go ahead and post happy pictures anyway.

[msp]

corpus likes your map.

another wind advisory today... 101F yesterday in CLL. haven't had a day at or below average in a month now.

[Srain]

I guess as someone from Louisiana I find myself checking this sub-forum the most because the SE forum seems to be focused more on places like Alabama, Georgia etc. I find the same at another forum which is predominantly Alabama centric. Of course it makes sense that there is a large south Texas and Louisiana contingent on a tropical forum elsewhere.

Welcome. I have a hunch as we move forward, our little sub sub forum community will grow and now with tropical season at hand, the activity will only increase.

[msp]

Welcome. I have a hunch as we move forward, our little sub sub forum community will grow and now with tropical season at hand, the activity will only increase.

in fact, if/when the activity demands it, i suggest a tropical MX/TX/LA chit-chat thread in here as well, similar to the drought one.

[Srain]

in fact, if/when the activity demands it, i suggest a tropical MX/TX/LA chit-chat thread in here as well, similar to the drought one.

That may be closer than we have thought.It is becoming a bit more clear that rain chance will be increasing as we head into next week. The Canadian has joined the GFS in suggesting increased rain chances for multiple days beginning in the late Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. What is interesting is those two models are also suggesting a bit of tropical mischief brewing in the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. Just perhaps a pattern change is ahead and we will wait and see if the Euro trends with the other more reliable models. Fingers crossed!

[Srain]

The 12Z UKMET and Euro have joined in on opening the door for deep tropical moisture to stream N. Both of those models break down the Upper Ridge and that suggests a pattern change may well be ahead. We will see.

[Ed Lizard]

I think 92E becomes Beatriz and spoils the Gulf TC party, but there is plenty o' support for increased moisture and rainfall chances mid/late week.

Euro splits the ridge nicely overhead as the trough travels by well to our North.

[msp]

heat advisories up across much of the state.

saw the heat index at CLL hit 108F today.

[wxmx]

Any ideas for how long this potential pattern may last?

Three days of rain and then back to dry will make me cry

I'm not sure how long the wetter pattern might last, heck my confidence on the wetter pattern is not that high, mostly because of persistence, which has been a b**ch, with all rain events underperforming. But, if it there's a wetter pattern for late June, I think it might lock for at least a week. The op Ukie MJO model is the bulliest with the wetter pattern, in both duration and strength... but has weak support from other models still. As I said before, our best chance comes from the trough catching what would be Beatriz, and bring some of that moisture N.

[bubba hotep]

Rain! Just had a 60 second rouge shower move through.

[msp]

99F and climbing at CLL... two ahead of yesterday's pace (103F was high)

[Srain]

A bit of a change this afternoon regarding what may occur next week. The past couple of days the models have been converging on a solution that suggest the Upper Ridge will break down and be a bit slower to become re established across TX. This has been the main fly in the ointment and why there has been some doubt about a prolonged chance of rain. It does appear that deep tropical moisture will begin surging into the Gulf during the day on Monday and by late Tuesday, showers/storms may begin to increase. Wednesday/Thursday look like a decent chance for everyone to at least have a shot at some scattered rains. Activity may start to diminish as we head into next week, but if the GFS is more correct in the longer range, those rain chances may continue a bit longer. Regarding the disturbance in the Caribbean/Western Gulf. Little or no development appears to be the most sensible solution at this time. That said, that disturbance, along with the EPAC system and a boundary to our N should enhance chances for some badly needed rain.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm a little worried a big sloppy spread out area of low pressure that is unable to become a tropical depression because it is so spread out may favor Louisiana over Texas as far as rainfall totals go, but even an inch or two, considering July 4th weekend and how many folks will ignore firework bans, could really help.