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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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The Euro has been rather persistent on breaking down the Upper Ridge in the longer range. There have been hints from the GFS/UKMET as well and just perhaps some weak tropical mischief to increase rain chances...

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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It is way out there but both the GFS and EURO seem to be hinting at some action in the W Gulf in the 10+ day range. Maybe something for the coastal Texas folks to watch?

I hope. Its suble enough, you can't see it on Euro SLP fields, but it does have a weak low level vort entering the Gulf in 10 days. The more promisng thing for rain may be the weakness in the subtropical ridge around that time allowing more sea breezze and boundary convection.

Not good agreement at 10 days between Euro and GFS, another reason for only cautious optimism this far out.

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Srain

Srain

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^

It's getting mighty serious in areas S of I-10. Water restrictions in some communities started this past week and while visiting with friends from Central TX yesterday, Level 3 restrictions have/will start in Austin/San Antonio areas. Our only hope may well be a couple of tropical systems and folks I've talked with that are longtime Texans are willing to have the wind if we can put a dent in this drought. Some of the trees are really showing the stress of lack of water now. Unless something changes real soon, we can forget those public Fourth of July Fireworks Celebrations we enjoy so much...:(

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Looking at the PSU tropical 4 panel imagery GFS (I keep seeing tropical features at the end, but they keep staying far away so I'm not taking that hook) the 500 mb heights and the 850 to 250 mb mean flow seems to suggest the heart of the ridge will be right over Texas for a chunk of next week.

No mid level moisture of significance until out in LaLa land...

iahgfsb.png

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Portastorm

Portastorm

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^

It's getting mighty serious in areas S of I-10. Water restrictions in some communities started this past week and while visiting with friends from Central TX yesterday, Level 3 restrictions have/will start in Austin/San Antonio areas. Our only hope may well be a couple of tropical systems and folks I've talked with that are longtime Texans are willing to have the wind if we can put a dent in this drought. Some of the trees are really showing the stress of lack of water now. Unless something changes real soon, we can forget those public Fourth of July Fireworks Celebrations we enjoy so much...:(

In fact, the traditional July Fourth fireworks display in downtown Austin on Town Lake has indeed been cancelled this year due to drought concerns and the potential of the display burning down the city with a wildfire. In the 27 years I've lived here, I've never seen this happen.

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Srain

Srain

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While we are searching for any news of any rain chances, there is a bit of good news via the GFS. That model is suggesting a bit of a shift S of the Upper Ridge and the GFS has been hinting for days of some disturbed weather taking shape in the Bay of Campeche in the longer range. One thing of note is the increased deep tropical moisture that most models are depicting building N from the Caribbean in the medium range. Now that we are nearing mid June, just perhaps this is not some model fantasy and we may well be headed into the timeframe later in June when eyes will turn to the tropics for some badly needed moisture to help ease our rainfall deficits. Fingers Crossed.

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After a few showers and thunderstorms early last week, the heat and dryness have returned.

Dangerous fire weather conditions across all areas through the week

Near record heat will return again this week as ridge aloft over Mexico builds northward into TX. Highs yesterday of 97-99 will be about 1-3 degrees warmer today and 1-2 degrees warmer on Tuesday. Expect widespread upper 90’s to low 100’s today through most of the week with little to no chance of rainfall. Models are attempting to develop a few afternoon thunderstorms over our NE zones as a piece of energy rounds the upper ridge on Wednesday…but this is likely more wishful thinking than anything. The threat of lightening induced fires would be a bigger negative than any small amounts of wetting rains. With that said the area will continue to suffer through one of the worst droughts on record.

Fire Weather:

Dry air in the mid levels is mixing down to the surface during the afternoon hours allowing afternoon RH values to fall to below 40% across much of the region. Ground fuels are extremely dry with vegetation health poor. Afternoon winds have been averaging 10-20mph across the region from the S and SE. Dry fuels and wind have resulted in increasingly larger fires over the past week and fires burning close in or in the urban/rural interface. TX Forest Service indicates the risk of a large pine crown fire in the wooded pine areas continues to increase as the tops of the pines are starting to dry and stress. Wildfires over the past week have shown rapid and erratic behavior and are becoming increasing difficult to contain. Residents should use extreme caution when dealing with any kind of fire outdoors…burns bans are in effect for most counties. KBDI values are over 700 across Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Brazoria. KBDI values range from 0 (saturated) to 800 (no soil moisture). Harris County currently has a value around 725.

Plum Grove Fire:

140-acre fire developed yesterday afternoon near the Harris/Montgomery County line and expanded rapidly in gusty winds and dry grasses reaching into some tree tops of dry pine trees. 18 fire departments responded along with TX Forest Service helicopter for water drop support. Fire burned out of control threatening 6 homes until early evening. Dozers were used to cut fire lines and the fire has been contained.

Liberty County:

50-acre fire has been contained near FM 1008 and Simmons Rd. No homes were threatened.

Hardin County:

1409-acre fire north of FM 770 and SH 326. Several homes were threatened. Numerous fire departments along with several dozers and multiple aircraft have been used on this fire.

Drought:

While some areas saw rains last week, those rains did little to relieve the ongoing exceptional drought across the region. In fact based on flash flood guidance it would take at least 5.0 inches of rainfall in rural areas to even generate run-off. Rainfall departures are now approaching 20-25 inches for the period from October 2010 to June 2011. A few interesting facts from this drought:

Hobby Airport has only record rainfall on one day out of the last 86 (

BUSH IAH has had less than 1 inch of rainfall for the past 3 months (this has never happened before)

Since Jan 26th (IAH has recorded 2.05 inches of rainfall and Hobby 1.41 inches)

105 on June 5 and 6 at IAH set new all-time record highs for Houston (old record was 104 set in 2009)

Rainfall Departures from Oct 1, 2010 to June 9, 2011:

Bellville: -20.13

Brenham: -20.01

College Station: -18.99

Columbus: -20.96

Conroe: -21.37

Freeport: -17.78

Hobby Airport: -18.20

BUSH IAH: -19.60

Huntsville: -22.73

Livingston: -23.45

Matagorda: -17.82

Tomball: -24.31

Victoria: -16.72

Water Restrictions:

Numerous cities and jurisdictions have begun water restrictions. Across the state 133 locations have mandatory water restrictions in place. In SE TX the following cities have voluntary water restrictions:

Huntsville

Katy

League City

Seabrook

Conroe

The Woodlands

Pearland

Sugar Land

New Waverly

Galveston

Riverside

Austin: has begun stage 1 water restrictions

San Antonio: has begun stage 2 water restrictions. Edwards Aq has fallen to 642ft or 20.4ft below normal. At 640 ft San Antonio will go to stage 3 mandatory water restrictions with no outside watering at all.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

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Wow! This looks hot, especially considering the all-time state record is 120 I believe. I hope there's some official thermometers down there so it can be observed to see whether that mark gets eclipsed this summer.

=============================================

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 112. South wind around 5 mph becoming east.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. East wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 112. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 81. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 114. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 81.

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 114.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 81.

Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 114.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 82.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 114.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 82.

Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 116.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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It got to 118ºF at MAF the Summer I was there for an internship. Dry heat. Cool, though, dry thunderstorm started a fire that burned all the way to the perimeter road around the MAF airport.

I was just thinking. Since SETX doesn't get a tropical cyclone every year, and dry places like Austin and San Antonio are waiting on the remnants of the TC we may not get, widespread watering bans and completely dead lawns may become the norm, and it'll take an El Nino Winter with a split jet to bring even seasonable rains back. Recharging drained acquifers and abnormally low reservoirs, maybe that will take a TC in 2012.

SST_table.gif

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Flexo

Flexo

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The GFS has a weakness in the ridge beginning to develop by the middle of next week thanks to a west coast trough that finally decides to eat away at the ridge as it pushes eastward. The weakness in the ridging lasts through the end of the month sending consecutive rounds of tropical rains towards Mexico and Texas

but this is all still beyond a week :(

If it means anything at all, tonight's run of the CMC agrees with the pattern breakdown just beyond day 7

Long range 0z GFS looks mighty wet. It would single handledly reverse the drought in Tamaulipas and Deep S TX, and dent it in the mid and upper coast of TX and my backyard.

quite a few runs of the GFS now having quite a wet trend for the end of the month.

It's too bad this is beyond day 7, but I guess it's better than the dry runs we've seen for so long now...

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wxmx

wxmx

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The GFS has a weakness in the ridge beginning to develop by the middle of next week thanks to a west coast trough that finally decides to eat away at the ridge as it pushes eastward. The weakness in the ridging lasts through the end of the month sending consecutive rounds of tropical rains towards Mexico and Texas

but this is all still beyond a week :(

If it means anything at all, tonight's run of the CMC agrees with the pattern breakdown just beyond day 7

quite a few runs of the GFS now having quite a wet trend for the end of the month.

It's too bad this is beyond day 7, but I guess it's better than the dry runs we've seen for so long now...

Yeah, it's still in fantasy land, but the good news is that there's teleconnection support. The Ukie MJO model was alone with bringing a rather strong MJO wave to phase 1, while the GFS and Euro were slower with it, stalling it in weak phase 4, which is not that good. Now, the latter two have been trending toward the Ukie, while this is showing an even stronger wave. The -AO is forecasted to weaken beyond day 8 now, so ridging centered around 30N should weaken a bit, giving credence to a possible ridging break.

bmo.mjo.latest.png

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Srain

Srain

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A bit of hopeful news regarding our rain chances this afternoon. The models are converging on a solution that will break down the Upper Ridge beginning early next week. While it is still days away and we have been down this road too many times only to see that mirage disappear, it does look like deep tropical moisture will begin pooling in the Western Gulf and even a frontal boundary may approach from the N around mid next week.

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Srain

Srain

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The models are in good agreement on a change in the weather pattern now beginning early next week. After a very long period of hot and dry, it appears we are headed toward a more active wetter period as a trough will develop and move slowly E and deep tropical moisture that is currently in the Western Caribbean will begin to stream N and NW into the Gulf and on into TX. Early this morning Austin/San Antonio NWS (Happy Birthday to Portastorm, by the way) has an AFD that looks like a sight for sore eyes for those wishing for some badly needed rain...

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER

TROF DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL

INCREASE IN LOW GULF LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN

RAIN CHANCES AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE DIMINISHES. THE SEA

BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THE DRY LINE OUT WEST

SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY TOWARD THE

MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEXAS ON THE WESTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR MUCH DEEPER

MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN THAT

COULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

Now for the not so good news. It does look like we will get very close to Heat Adivisory criteria this weekend so be very careful out there. Houston/Galveston NWS is still be very cautious, and rightly so after an extended period of little/no rain and are not getting too excited...yet...

HOWEVER WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...THE

MAIN ISSUE THIS FCST PERIOD COULD BE INCREASED HEAT INDICIES WITH

THE INCREASING HUMIDITIES. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SET

RIGHT ATOP OF THE AREA AND THE ELEVATED DWPTS...WILL HAVE TO KEEP

AN EYE ON TEMP TRENDS FRI/SAT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT ADVSY

FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE KEEPING HOPE ALIVE

FOR THE CHANCES OF RAIN/ RELIEF. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL

BE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND (AND BRINGING THE VERY

HOT TEMPS) IS PROGGED TO SHIFT E/NE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT

WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD SEE THE GULF OPENING UP BY DURING

THE MID/END OF NEXT WEEK AND A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL

MOISTURE...MAYBE.

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