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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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:yikes:

EWX:

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MIXED BAG. FORECAST ISSUES WEDNESDAY ARE PCPN

TYPE...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. ATTM THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE

ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE

SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE NORTHEAST

OF OUR REGION SO THE PCPN WILL BE SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT

WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS AFTERNOON TEMPS FALL

BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST

COUNTIES THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE

AND SLEET. WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO END BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN

BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE

POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON

AND EVENING HOURS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR

WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH FALLING

TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

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Srain

Srain

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Even HGX is sticking with a chance of freezing precip in Northern zones (little/no accumulation)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO

PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE

ACROSS NW ZONES LATE MORNING/MID DAY AND REACHING THE COAST LATE

AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RAPIDLY DROP DURING

AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS

INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA

AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS BARELY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES SW

PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT WEDNESDAY AND ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

REST OF REGION AHEAD OF FRONT RUNNING IN THE 40S AND 50S

(DEWPOINTS). SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (WITH GOOD

ISENTROPIC LIFTING) WEDNESDAY. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS

DISCUSSIONS VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX VALUES

REMAINING POSITIVE. WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY

WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SLEET (LITTLE OR NO

ACCUMULATIONS) FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING MID AND

LATE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES

DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWFA WITH

REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE

LOWER 30S.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

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DFW NWS office has expanded the Winter Storm Watch for all of North Texas. Wouldn't be surprised if, at least, the areas already in the Watch (including DFW) this morning, don't get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as early as tomorrow morning, but a majority of North Texas may be placed in the Warning as the event unfolds. Right now accumulations are at the bottom end of criteria, but it is possible some areas could get more than forecasted as the models are trending heavier with QPF and colder overall (exception the NAM).

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Passing the buck! (obviously said in jest / sarcasm)

000

FXUS64 KFWD 080309 AAB

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

909 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

.UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. THUS DO NOT PLAN

TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE THE

WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE

TO FULLY EVALUATE ALL OF THE 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON

ANY WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

58

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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00z NAM vs GFS... 21z SREF kind of splits the difference? The difference b/w the metroplex getting into the higher amounts may only end up being 50 or 75 miles. It looks like the NAM wants to swing out more energy and the GFS wants to wash things out as the energy rotates around. It will be interesting to read the DFW am discussion and look at some of the real time data tomorrow.

Edit: A quick look at the 05z h5 map on the SPC mesoscale page appears to give a slight advantage to the GFS

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

I've just posted my thoughts on my second discussion for the event. You can view it over on TexasStormChasers.com http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/02/07/292011-major-winter-storm-discussion-2/

I wouldn't be surprised to see thundersnow in areas again with this event. Both the NAM and GFS introduced some elevated instability and convective elements that may allow for 'bursts' in some areas that cause locally higher amounts. Still, we're 24+ hours out from the event here and after last week, I'll wait until we're in the range of the high resolution rapid update models before making a specific call. I swear If I end up with 12+ inches of snow like last year :arrowhead:

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Srain

Srain

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Interesting developments over night and the NWS is responding with SPS flying and lowering temps post frontal across the Lone Star State. Yet another potential snow and icing event for much of the area. I'm looking forward to warming up.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

None of the models are handling the low level cold air well at all. I am growing more concerned about more ice over snow in DFW anyway. That is why I think the Winter Storm Warning is very valid downhere. This airmass is very shallow and there will be larger window for sleet and freezing rain than expected.

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Srain

Srain

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We're an hour away from comparing actual frontal position and model fronts at 18Z...

Makes no difference. Amarillo is off by a good 10+ for MAV and MOS. The front and the air mass behind it is stronger than progged. Sometimes you have to toss the guidance and see what's happening in the 'real world'.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Makes no difference. Amarillo is off by a good 10+ for MAV and MOS. The front and the air mass behind it is stronger than progged. Sometimes you have to toss the guidance and see what's happening in the 'real world'.

Yeah, I see the models for DFW, and I think its more than a little bit of sleet between rain and snow. I think it likely a good ice layer under the snow.

A strongly worded WSW will hopefully get schools cancelled tonight, and not have kids riding to school as the roads are icing over.

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Srain

Srain

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HGX issues Winter Weather Advisory for N and W part of SE TX...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM

WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN AND SLEET.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210>212-091200-

/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1600Z-110209T2300Z/

AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-

WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...

BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CROCKETT...

EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...

LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...PRAIRIE VIEW...

SEALY...TRINITY...WEIMAR

312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE

AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE ADVISORY REGION MAY ALSO

EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET. THE THREAT WILL PROGRESS FROM

WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID AND UPPER

LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OFF QUICKLY EARLY WEDNESDAY

EVENING ENDING THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT

WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME COVERED

WITH A THIN LAYER OF PATCHY ICE MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

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Srain

Srain

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:popcorn:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0716 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 090116Z - 090415Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND

MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 05-06Z.

ABOVE A SHALLOW STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING

THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND

NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS

SATURATING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...A ZONE OF

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL IS SPREADING

EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z. AS MID-LEVEL LIFT SATURATES THE MIXED PHASE

LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES

WILL INTENSIFY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT

HIGHER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD

IN NARROW TONGUE TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY NOT IMPACT SNOW

RATES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT....BUT IT APPEARS HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID

WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH

PER HOUR LATE THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/09/2011

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

post-32-0-90476800-1297215364.gif

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Srain

Srain

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From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/09/11 0229Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0215Z JANKOT

.

LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...

LOCATION...KANSAS...NEW MEXICO...

.

ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...

ATTN WFOS...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS SE INTO TX PANHANDLE ENE THROUGH OK INTO SE KS

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW

OVERALL TROF AXIS PROGRESSING EAST WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UL PATTERN OVER

DISCUSSION REGION. IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BAROCLINIC LEAF SATELLITE

SIGNATURE OVER N OK/S KS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS SITUATED. HEAVIEST SNOW IS

ON A WSW TO ENE AXIS FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH N OK INTO EXTREME S KS

UNDER THE SE EDGE OF ENHANCEMENT IN LEAF SATELLITE STRUCTURE. IR IMAGERY

HAS ALSO SHOWN BETTER ENHANCEMENT OVER TX PANHANDLE INTO W OK AND EXPECT

SNOWFALL TO DECREASE OVER S KS AND A GENERAL FOCUS OF BEST BANDING OVER

TX PANHANDLE INTO N OK. HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED IN SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE

WITH OVER 50 DEG F TEMP GRADIENT FROM N TX N TO S KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH

SOUTHERLY WAA AT 85H PER RUC/VWP'S. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR TO

CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0530Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TX PANHANDLE ENE THROUGH

SE KS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH RATES IN THE 1-2"/HR IN

BEST BANDING MORE FOCUSED OVER TX PANHANDLE/OK. WITH AREAS IN KS SEEING

AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES TODAY THE SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED

CLOSELY TO SEE WHERE BEST BANDING

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The fear of the office being closed again had everyone going crazy today but finally escaped! Doesn't look like much changed with the models this afternoon / evening. It looks like the energy is digging a little more into the southwest than modeled. Will that make any difference down the road? Temp is slowly falling here and we are hovering around 50% humidity.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Cold front ahead of schedule - but that was pretty much a given

000

FXUS64 KFWD 090312 AAB

AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

912 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 03Z TAF AMENDMENT

THE COLD FRONT IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE

TIMING UP ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND HAVE ALSO

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN THE METROPLEX...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL

LIKELY CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINTER PRECIP WILL END FASTER IN THE

AFTERNOON...AROUND 19Z. BEST THINKING IS STILL THAT THE PRECIP

WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE METROPLEX AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO

SNOW. FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY AROUND THE WACO AREA

WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

82/JLD

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