Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[Srain]

Upper Ridge looks to build across all the region over the long Memorial Day Holiday. Temp should soar and rain will be non existent, but there are hints of a upper flow change toward the middle of next week bringing and easterly fetch and sea breeze storm chances as we transition into a summer time pattern. Oh, and it's almost Tropical Season. Do we want to discuss that here in the thread or on the main page? Many of us frequent those threads and I wanted get some input on future discussions within our group as we may not want to clutter up things on the main page. Thoughts?

[Ed Lizard]

Upper Ridge looks to build across all the region over the long Memorial Day Holiday. Temp should soar and rain will be non existent, but there are hints of a upper flow change toward the middle of next week bringing and easterly fetch and sea breeze storm chances as we transition into a summer time pattern. Oh, and it's almost Tropical Season. Do we want to discuss that here in the thread or on the main page? Many of us frequent those threads and I wanted get some input on future discussions within our group as we may not want to clutter up things on the main page. Thoughts?

The Euro Westward migrating low and the weak surface reflection, one, its the Euro, two, it is a weak reflection, it could get invest worthy, mainly because it would be in the Gulf, but I'm mainly interested in the rain.

[Srain]

Pool time...

[msp]

glad i'm not in tx anymore. at least low to mid 90s for the foreseeable future in CLL with nada falling in the rain gauge.

[bubba hotep]

Upper Ridge looks to build across all the region over the long Memorial Day Holiday. Temp should soar and rain will be non existent, but there are hints of a upper flow change toward the middle of next week bringing and easterly fetch and sea breeze storm chances as we transition into a summer time pattern. Oh, and it's almost Tropical Season. Do we want to discuss that here in the thread or on the main page? Many of us frequent those threads and I wanted get some input on future discussions within our group as we may not want to clutter up things on the main page. Thoughts?

I am up for some tropical discussions in this thread. I am sure we can find some Texas / Mexico specific things to talk about that may not be of much interest in the main forum.

[Ed Lizard]

I can see extra discussion from good posters outside the tropical thread if La Pesca to Corpus Christi is in the cone.

[Srain]

I think some would feel more comfortable discussing our regional thoughts here as well, bubba. I do like seeing the trends on the Euro ensembles regarding next week as well for rainfall chances. Perhaps Jorge will even get in on the action. Oh, and topped out at 96F here today.

[wxmx]

I think some would feel more comfortable discussing our regional thoughts here as well, bubba. I do like seeing the trends on the Euro ensembles regarding next week as well for rainfall chances. Perhaps Jorge will even get in on the action. Oh, and topped out at 96F here today.

Looks like some real possibility for real rain in our region Jun 5-12. Cyclogenesis probabilities in the Atlantic will enhance above climo as well.

[Ed Lizard]

Too close to the ridge, even if the center is North of us, for my tastes.

The local pro-met says August for drought relief, and I am concerned he could be serious.

[Srain]

Looks like weak TUTT low could traverse the Gulf next week as an easterly flow becomes established. Any deeper tropical mischief appears to be monsoonal trough related and stays buried in the W Caribbean.

[Ed Lizard]

Looks like weak TUTT low could traverse the Gulf next week as an easterly flow becomes established. Any deepr tropical mischief appears to be monsoonal trough related and stays buried in the W Caribbean.

Despite my incredible natural optimism, I'm not confident at all of anything but isolated sea breeze activity.

[TXWXCHX]

Upper Ridge looks to build across all the region over the long Memorial Day Holiday. Temp should soar and rain will be non existent, but there are hints of a upper flow change toward the middle of next week bringing and easterly fetch and sea breeze storm chances as we transition into a summer time pattern. Oh, and it's almost Tropical Season. Do we want to discuss that here in the thread or on the main page? Many of us frequent those threads and I wanted get some input on future discussions within our group as we may not want to clutter up things on the main page. Thoughts?

I'd feel more comfortable prognosticating here... that way we can be region specific and I won't get weenie tagged as quickly lol

[bubba hotep]

I'd feel more comfortable prognosticating here... that way we can be region specific and I won't get weenie tagged as quickly lol

8

That is the major problem with the Texas/New Mexico/MX group! We don't have any unapologetic weenies. It seems like every other subforum has their share of posters that wildly swing form "Look at the 84hr NAM! OMG! we are going to score!" to "OMG! It is never going to snow/rain/hurricane here again" but this subforum seems to be nothing but steady, logical, and realistic posters. What fun is that!?!

The SPC has MBY only about 100 miles south of the Slight Risk zone and I think we are going to get more low level moisture return than modeled and the CAP is going to break and we going to score some supercells! /weenie

[msp]

Upper Ridge looks to build across all the region over the long Memorial Day Holiday. Temp should soar and rain will be non existent, but there are hints of a upper flow change toward the middle of next week bringing and easterly fetch and sea breeze storm chances as we transition into a summer time pattern. Oh, and it's almost Tropical Season. Do we want to discuss that here in the thread or on the main page? Many of us frequent those threads and I wanted get some input on future discussions within our group as we may not want to clutter up things on the main page. Thoughts?

i do agree with the above posts that tx hurricane chit chat should go in this here thread (or another thread in this forum for tx tropical banter--kinda like the drought thread). with only one general atl disco thread, i figure we should leave that to relatively IMBY-free posts.

[Ed Lizard]

8

That is the major problem with the Texas/New Mexico/MX group! We don't have any unapologetic weenies. It seems like every other subforum has their share of posters that wildly swing form "Look at the 84hr NAM! OMG! we are going to score!" to "OMG! It is never going to snow/rain/hurricane here again" but this subforum seems to be nothing but steady, logical, and realistic posters. What fun is that!?!

The SPC has MBY only about 100 miles south of the Slight Risk zone and I think we are going to get more low level moisture return than modeled and the CAP is going to break and we going to score some supercells! /weenie

Meso cloud touches Wise and Denton Counties!!!!!

[Srain]

Happy Memorial Day Weekend everyone! I'm off to enjoy the pool.

[Srain]

Looks like some real possibility for real rain in our region Jun 5-12. Cyclogenesis probabilities in the Atlantic will enhance above climo as well.

Right on que, the GFS is hinting a disturbance near the 12th in the Gulf.

[Srain]

The 00Z Euro and GFS are suggesting a bit of a breaking down of the Upper Ridge to be replaced by an Upper Trough. Should that happen, rainfall chances would likely increase as a summer time pattern becomes established with an easterly flow.

[Srain]

[Flexo]

We're entering troll season for the CMC!

[Srain]

We're entering troll season for the CMC!

That we are. Rain chances look nill until the TUTT low passes later this week/weekend. Elevated fire dangers run rampant across the Lone Star State as well. Hope everyone has had a safe and happy Memorial Day Weekend.

[Ed Lizard]

Convection in the Mexican states bordering Texas?

[Ed Lizard]

Six days to widely scattered and generally light showers, that will do nothing to minimize the drough conditions, but will provide a psychological boost for SE Texans!!!!!!

[Srain]

Six days to widely scattered and generally light showers, that will do nothing to minimize the drough conditions, but will provide a psychological boost for SE Texans!!!!!!

Fingers crossed...

[Srain]

Both the GFS and the Euro are suggesting increased rain chances over the weekend into early next week. The GFS is showing pw's around 2.0 and seabreeze shower/storms and no capping. Hopefully a summertime pattern will persist beyond a few days.

[Srain]

With an easterly flow to become established, eyes will need to turn to 93L as it may well be a TX issue by Friday.

[Ed Lizard]

Models suggest 93L weakens significantly and heads South of the Border...

I remain 1/256th glass full that the models are wrong and significant rains arrive for the weekend!

[Srain]

[Ed Lizard]

Canadian model still shows the tiniest sliver of a mouse hair of remnant low level vorticity making it to Texas.

[Ed Lizard]

OK, its the NAM, but bedtime approaches.

Sure, 93L doesn't do much and heads for Tamilipaus, but look, another piece of something breaks off from the Westerlies and also quickly rotates back towards Texas. Maybe.

Showers in Louisiana Sunday morning and heading West. Maybe.