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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Flexo

Flexo

Posted
Posted

i should leave more often.

meh

after the "event" today, it looks like another dry streak will be upon us

HGX mentioned last night that Hobby has not recieved any measurable rain in 58 days

yesterday's 0.09" at IAH was its first measurable rainfall since April 15th's heavy downpour of 0.01"

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

Travis County cell looks mildy suspicious to me...

My friend, LCRA hydromet data will confirm it. Rainfall amounts so far (with another line approaching from the west) are ranging from 1.21 inches to 1.96 inches. We also received pea sized hail in downtown Austin about 30 minutes ago. :thumbsup:

I will send it your way!

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

My friend, LCRA hydromet data will confirm it. Rainfall amounts so far (with another line approaching from the west) are ranging from 1.21 inches to 1.96 inches. We also received pea sized hail in downtown Austin about 30 minutes ago. :thumbsup:

I will send it your way!

Its merging with the line now, but for a while down Bergstrom way it looked like it had an inflow notch and my free NWS radar RV maybe showed a touch of rotation. Couldn't have been too suspicious, seems like EWX is pretty quick on the trigger on tor warns.

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

Yeah, EWX is usually good about that. Haven't heard of any funnel cloud reports. However, lots of hail reports around town. The main squall line rolling through now. High winds downtown, probably 40-50 mph. Rain flying horizontally. Yep, this is a Centex Turd Floater for sure.

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Srain

Srain

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1143 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...289...

VALID 121643Z - 121815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

288...289...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST MAINLY

ACROSS SERN THROUGH SRN TX NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXTENSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH

REMAINDER OF SERN AND SRN TX SUPPORTED BY A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY

LAYER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER

SERN TX TO 2500+ J/KG OVER SRN TX ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. VWP

DATA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE SHOW A 40 KT WLY REAR INFLOW JET

WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT AND AUGMENT

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. EXTENT OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG NRN END

OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN TX REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN.

..DIAL.. 05/12/2011

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...

post-32-0-42683100-1305218890.gif

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

looks like CLL got at least 1.17" between today and yesterday... now we just need that every few days for a couple weeks now

We got 2.25 inches over the last 48 hrs in our location!! I'm thrilled to pieces! However, we also got surprisingly high winds on the backside of this event... winds in excess of 60+ mph, minor damage to structures. But that's alright, because it RAINED!!! :wub:

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

Wow, color me officially FLOORED. It's actually CHILLY here today - 63.2 degrees at NOON in mid-may; it's clear as a bell with the winds breezing out of the NORTH at approximately 10 MPH. I actually had to close the windows, because it's too cool in the house right now! :o

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Srain

Srain

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What a great string of days with the Omega Block. Cool mornings in Mid May has been a treat. We need rain and hopefully as we near the weekend the dryline will fire off some storms.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

What a great string of days with the Omega Block. Cool mornings in Mid May has been a treat. We need rain and hopefully as we near the weekend the dryline will fire off some storms.

0Z and 12Z GFS says no appreciable rains, and the GFS has been perfect on the no-rain calls the last few weeks.

But I drove to work w/o AC on today.

iahgfs.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

MSP going back to Minnesota seems to only benefit the immediate CLL/UTS area...

New 12Z NAM is wet here, actually, but I've seen this movie too many times.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

650 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.AVIATION...

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AT THIS HOUR

WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER EAST TEXAS. THE MAIN LINE OF

THUNDERSTORMS WAS STILL WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THE HILL

COUNTRY. A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AT KEWX

INDICATES THIS LINE WILL NOT REACH KCLL UNTIL AFTER 19Z. THE

FEELING HERE WAS THAT THE LINE WILL PROBABLY NOT HOLD TOGETHER.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE VERY DIVERGENT IN TERMS OF THE CEILING

AND WIND FORECAST AND THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM

AND GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY ERODE THE WARM

TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 700 MB...WHILE THE RUC DOES NOT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMBINATION OF THE EXTRAPOLATION AND THE

MODEL DATA. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT MENTION

PREVAILING TSRA BUT DID INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD GIVEN

ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR KCLL AND

KUTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCES GET MORE REMOTE TOWARD

THE COAST.

UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TRENDS BECOME

MORE APPARENT AND IF THE MODEL DATA BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Posted

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201708Z - 201815Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS /BY 18-19Z/.

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT.

AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A STRONG

STORM ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS MCS...WITH THIS STORM LOCATED IN NRN SAN

SABA/WRN MILLS COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN

THE CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY...

SUPPORTING SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE

/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES

/7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ AND ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STRONG

INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS TEND TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS

TX...THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID AND HIGH LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL

RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...

INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE

PRIMARY THREATS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE

COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH

CENTRAL TX.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2011

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

post-32-0-63401600-1305912570.gif

post-32-0-19470100-1305913497.gif

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