Flexo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 i should leave more often. meh after the "event" today, it looks like another dry streak will be upon us HGX mentioned last night that Hobby has not recieved any measurable rain in 58 days yesterday's 0.09" at IAH was its first measurable rainfall since April 15th's heavy downpour of 0.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Glass half full. If the 0Z NAM is right, we have a flood going on right now. It may be a shade optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Low level winds are pretty tame, but effective inflow is good, and just a little surface heating now will go along way. Radar should get good soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Do you believe in miracles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 We (Austin) are getting some wonderful rains this morning ... torrential rains, actually. The glass here, Ed, is half full and getting fuller by the minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Travis County cell looks mildy suspicious to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Travis County cell looks mildy suspicious to me... My friend, LCRA hydromet data will confirm it. Rainfall amounts so far (with another line approaching from the west) are ranging from 1.21 inches to 1.96 inches. We also received pea sized hail in downtown Austin about 30 minutes ago. I will send it your way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 My friend, LCRA hydromet data will confirm it. Rainfall amounts so far (with another line approaching from the west) are ranging from 1.21 inches to 1.96 inches. We also received pea sized hail in downtown Austin about 30 minutes ago. I will send it your way! Its merging with the line now, but for a while down Bergstrom way it looked like it had an inflow notch and my free NWS radar RV maybe showed a touch of rotation. Couldn't have been too suspicious, seems like EWX is pretty quick on the trigger on tor warns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Yeah, EWX is usually good about that. Haven't heard of any funnel cloud reports. However, lots of hail reports around town. The main squall line rolling through now. High winds downtown, probably 40-50 mph. Rain flying horizontally. Yep, this is a Centex Turd Floater for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...289... VALID 121643Z - 121815Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...289...CONTINUES. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS SERN THROUGH SRN TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXTENSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF SERN AND SRN TX SUPPORTED BY A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER SERN TX TO 2500+ J/KG OVER SRN TX ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. VWP DATA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE SHOW A 40 KT WLY REAR INFLOW JET WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT AND AUGMENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. EXTENT OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG NRN END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN TX REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. ..DIAL.. 05/12/2011 ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 May not be right, but NAM predicting more activity on the weather forums tomorrow during rush hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Little bow on the line. Will my house finally see its first 50 knot wind gust in almost 3 years? Of course, I'm not home, I'll accept nearby LSRs or obs from DWH or IAH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 No severe weather. But we needed the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 Ended up with .6 worth of rain. I'll take it! Heck of a MCS off S TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 looks like CLL got at least 1.17" between today and yesterday... now we just need that every few days for a couple weeks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 looks like CLL got at least 1.17" between today and yesterday... now we just need that every few days for a couple weeks now We got 2.25 inches over the last 48 hrs in our location!! I'm thrilled to pieces! However, we also got surprisingly high winds on the backside of this event... winds in excess of 60+ mph, minor damage to structures. But that's alright, because it RAINED!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Operational 0Z GFS actually has that low still digging as it approaches. Some spread in that time frame on the ensembles predicting 6 hour rains of 0.25 inches or more. A week away from another glorious rain? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 Wow, color me officially FLOORED. It's actually CHILLY here today - 63.2 degrees at NOON in mid-may; it's clear as a bell with the winds breezing out of the NORTH at approximately 10 MPH. I actually had to close the windows, because it's too cool in the house right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 Last few GFS runs seem to be backing down rain for SETX for late week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Wow! This is some awesome weather. I wish we could lock this in for a couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 What a great string of days with the Omega Block. Cool mornings in Mid May has been a treat. We need rain and hopefully as we near the weekend the dryline will fire off some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 What a great string of days with the Omega Block. Cool mornings in Mid May has been a treat. We need rain and hopefully as we near the weekend the dryline will fire off some storms. 0Z and 12Z GFS says no appreciable rains, and the GFS has been perfect on the no-rain calls the last few weeks. But I drove to work w/o AC on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 More storms in N Central TX ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Time to wake this dead thread up. It's goin' to rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Time to wake this dead thread up. It's goin' to rain! You do these HPC and SPC maps, and then it doesn't rain. I don't believe in jinxes or karma, but if I did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 You do these HPC and SPC maps, and then it doesn't rain. I don't believe in jinxes or karma, but if I did... msp was our jinx. Mike has left the State so we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 MSP going back to Minnesota seems to only benefit the immediate CLL/UTS area... New 12Z NAM is wet here, actually, but I've seen this movie too many times. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011 .AVIATION... THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AT THIS HOUR WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER EAST TEXAS. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS STILL WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THE HILL COUNTRY. A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AT KEWX INDICATES THIS LINE WILL NOT REACH KCLL UNTIL AFTER 19Z. THE FEELING HERE WAS THAT THE LINE WILL PROBABLY NOT HOLD TOGETHER. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE VERY DIVERGENT IN TERMS OF THE CEILING AND WIND FORECAST AND THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM AND GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY ERODE THE WARM TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 700 MB...WHILE THE RUC DOES NOT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMBINATION OF THE EXTRAPOLATION AND THE MODEL DATA. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT MENTION PREVAILING TSRA BUT DID INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR KCLL AND KUTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCES GET MORE REMOTE TOWARD THE COAST. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT AND IF THE MODEL DATA BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Right on the 50% line of SREF members seeing 0.25 inches or more 24 hour rainfall on my lawn. 70% line near CLL, DFW > 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 We're getting two 'special soundings' today locally. One by U of H and the other by TAMU in College Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 201708Z - 201815Z WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS /BY 18-19Z/. PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT. AT 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A STRONG STORM ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS MCS...WITH THIS STORM LOCATED IN NRN SAN SABA/WRN MILLS COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY... SUPPORTING SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ AND ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS TEND TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS TX...THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID AND HIGH LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS... INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2011 ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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