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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

SJT AFD mentioned 30ºC 850 mb temps, but looking at the GFS, SETX stays in the lower 20s.

Anyhoo, it looks like maybe the GFS is maybe suggesting a NW flow aloft event in just over ten days, with 4 tenths of an inch of rain late on the 15th. No cap with winds above 800 mb from the Northwest.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Just for grits and shins, the 0Z 4 May 2011 run of the Climate Forecast System from my AccuWeather pro site for June shows less than 2.5 inches of rain in SETX.

All of Texas, except the Panhandle. Upper Midwest and the East Coast, some areas in excess of 5 inches. I don't think I see any 10 inch plus amounts in the US.

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

I see CLL broke another record high today with 97F so far. Currently 93F at IAH and 94F in my back yard.

AUS broke its record yesterday (May 8th) with a 97-degree reading. Today (Monday), AUS (Bergstrom airport) has already broken the record high of 95 as it is sitting 96 right now at 4 p.m. Over at Camp Mabry (ATT), temp is 97 degrees which ties the record set in 2008.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Drought baked land should heat quickly during max insolation season in June and July. I see many a 100ºF day away from the immediate coast.

But at least, I suspect uncomfortable morning dewpoints will mix down nicely with all that dry air off the Mexican deserts overhead. So it might be 105ºF, but the dewpoints might 'only' be in the 60s.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

looks like we got at least 98F here... we'll see if we got a higher intrahour soon

i think i read the all-time high for may in CLL is 100F; scary to get so close and have it only be may 9th

We were just moving down in Summer 1980, I missed the 113ºF days in Dallas, but this could be our chance to relive that most famous of Texas warm spells.

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My Weather Today

My Weather Today

Posted
Posted

We were just moving down in Summer 1980, I missed the 113ºF days in Dallas, but this could be our chance to relive that most famous of Texas warm spells.

How ironic? We moved down to Houston during that dreadful summer of 1980. We drove all the way from Southern Illinios arriving here on July 4th of that summer. I still give my dad a hard time for chosing the hottest summer ever for the US to decide to move us across country.

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

i guarantee it'll rain now that i'm gone. just north of OKC for the night now. hard to say goodbye to texas, especially knowing that in-n-out burger opens tomorrow in dallas. i should be back in late june or july, hopefully in time for some serious triple digit heat.

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Srain

Srain

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I'm almost giddy...almost... E-mail from Jeff:

After months of little to no rainfall across the region, Thursday will provide the next chance of hope for decent widespread soaking rains we desperately need.

Large upper level trough over the western US is slowly shifting eastward this morning with disturbances rotating through the SW flow aloft on the SE side of the main trough. Current disturbance is crossing the Rio Grande and is producing showers/thunderstorms from west of Corpus to south of San Antonio….a very good sign of things to come. This current disturbance will rotate ENE across central Texas this afternoon and given strong heating along the dry line, expect numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along I-35 and show ENE toward SE TX. Strong capping still over the region will likely preclude much of this activity from reaching out area (maybe our western and northern counties will get a glancing blow).

Main event appears to be taking shape for Thursday into early Friday as main trough lifts into the plains and a strong short wave rotates through southern TX. Appears the stubborn cap of late will finally weaken to the point that surface parcels will be able to breach that mid level warm layer. In fact, for the first time in a long time the mid levels actually cool some mainly due to the track (more southerly) of the upper air disturbance. 250mb upper air winds also become increasingly divergent during the day on Thursday yielding increasing lift across the region. Surface dry line will remain stalled roughly along I-35 with moist SE winds feeding into this feature adding surface lift. Air mass will become unstable to very unstable by early to mid afternoon Thursday with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg across the region. From the standpoint of the models and the thermodynamic indications everything looks go for thunderstorms and wetting rains…but that is model world not real world!

While all the above is looking good for decent rain chances across the entire area, we are suffering through one of the most severe droughts on record and the models may be trying to trend toward climatology more so than what is really happening over this region. While the track of the short wave does look favorable to produce rainfall, there is still questions as to how fast and how much the capping weakens over the area. Forecast models have been overdoing the weakening of the cap for the past several events which has left us high and dry.

It looks likely that some of us will indeed see rainfall on Thursday and Thursday night, but is it a widespread event or more scattered to isolated. Models have been trending wetter each day with this system unlike the past systems which they have trended drier as the verification time drew closer. Feel it is best to only go 30-40% across the entire area for Thursday which is lower than both the NAM and GFS guidance of 50-60% for this time period, rain chances may need to be raised significantly early Thursday after a review of what happens today in central TX and what kind of capping we look to have in place early tomorrow.

Rainfall Amounts:

Will follow the 4KM WRF model the closet showing a batch of thunderstorms forming WSW of Victoria late Thursday and pushing ENE all the way to near Beaumont by Friday morning…this brings wetting rains to a good part of the area. GFS shows 1.05 inches for KIAH during this period and HPC has been bouncing around with averages of .25-.75 of an inch. Given the deepening moisture profile and increasingly moist mid and upper levels (another recent change) any convection that develops will produce heavy rainfall. Will go with an average of .50 of an inch across the entire region with isolated amounts of 2-3 inches under the heavier cells.

Severe Threat:

Air mass will be primed for strong to severe thunderstorms. 4KM WRF is showing a fast moving almost bowing type display moving across the region Thursday night. Inflow off the Gulf of Mexico and increasing low level jet after dark Thursday will promote a damaging wind threat especially the later in the evening storms go. Initial storms will likely be more isolated and contain a greater damaging hail threat (this threat will likely be across our western counties or from College Station to Matagorda Bay) with the wind threat increasing east of that line after dark. SPC has the entire area outlooked for a slight chance of severe storms.

All in all it is probably our best shot at widespread rains in a long time…but will it actually happen…we shall know in the next 36 hours!

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