Srain Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 EWX almost a little bullish... MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES ALOFT SWEEP NORTHEAST AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SURFACE...WE`LL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN SEEN HERE IN A LONG TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Now Chipinque in the Sierra has a wildfire. Good thing that better conditions are expected for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 CLL POPs tomorrow 40%... CLIMATE...GOING INTO THIS LAST DAY OF THE MONTH...IAH`S RAINFALLTOTAL OF 0.11 INCHES WOULD END UP BEING THE DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.33 INCHES IN 1937). HOU`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF A TRACE WOULD END UP BEING THE DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.06 INCHES IN 1987). GLS`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.12 INCHES WOULD END UP BEING THE 3RD DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.00 INCHES IN 1984 AND SECOND PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.01 INCHES IN 1887). CLL`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF A TRACE WOULD END UP BEING THE DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.08 INCHES IN 1984). 42 Morning SPC discusson suggests storms won't initiate South of the surface bounary tomorrow due to capping. NM drops abouta tenth today locally, it isn't capping so much as tame lower level lapse rates that seem to be preventing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 surprised to see the NAM pop storms over the brazos valley today with a decent round two tomorrow evening. 18z RUC keeps us dry today. maybe a weak third round of showers monday afternoon? i don't see much in the way of drought-busting, but any rain will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 I see echoes on more distant radars over Harris County, but not on the HGX radar. I assume very high based and virga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Well, why you guys are torching in TX we're just finishing up an incredibly windy April even for NM with a high wind warning tonight. Gusts up to 60 here in Santa Fe. And oh yeah, opening up May with freaking SNOW. Calling for 2-4 inches tomorrow. Last year I remember being shocked at some flurries here in May but 2-4 inches is messed up. I'm used to 90s by this time in south TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Nice to see so much activity on the radar this morning across N TX. Please send some rain further S. Thanks. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0830 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 259...260... VALID 011330Z - 011400Z ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO ROOT SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM IN UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF WIND SHIFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SWRN AR SHORTLY. WW/S 259/260 WILL BE REPLACED TO REFLECT THIS THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/01/2011 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Just posted in 5/1 severe thread, Parker County cell has some mad rotation as seen on free NWS radar (someday, GR level whatever) and SPC mesoanalysis suggests it crosses the front a county or two East of the Metroplex. I'd expect that to become tornadic quickly if it maintains that long. DFW metro in the 50s, their tornado threat seems near nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 HRRR like Central TX this afternoon. NE TX as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 HRRR like Central TX this afternoon. NE TX as well. We're hopeful here in (south) Central Texas for some decent rains. Don't mind gusty winds and small hail if that comes with it! Keep the rest of it though. Mid-morning AFD out of New Braunfels says the RUC/NAM strongly target the I-35 corridor north of New Braunfels for severe this afternoon. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 it's not even sunny outside and we're still baking. 94/65 at 12:53pm... already broken the record high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 crazy numbers to end april with here too: warmest and driest apr on record trace of precip, highs averaging 9.1 deg. above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 crazy numbers to end april with here too: warmest and driest apr on record trace of precip, highs averaging 9.1 deg. above normal Almost the same here in Austin (Camp Mabry station). Warmest April on record with the average temperature 7.8 degrees above normal and the 6th driest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Meanwhile SJT has a SWS out for cold weather... SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOW LYING RURAL AREAS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF FREEZE. THE NORMAL LAST FREEZE TYPICALLY OCCURS IN THE FINAL WEEK OF MARCH FOR THIS PART OF TEXAS AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD FOR SAN ANGELO OCCURRED ON APRIL 30...1908. FOR ABILENE THIS OCCURRED ON APRIL 22...1947. MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND LIVESTOCK FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 If FTW can get storms well behind the front, maybe tomorrow will be better to us in SETX than the models are suggesting. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 The temperature differential is amazing for this time of year across TX…almost 60F difference from Gainesville to Cotulla... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 If FTW can get storms well behind the front, maybe tomorrow will be better to us in SETX than the models are suggesting. Or not. Don't get me started. This is just pitiful. We had a 30-degree temp differential during the heat of the day right before the front passed and still got nada here in Austin. This is a Cap of Death. I'm really wondering if someone cursed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 now there's a CF. 93F to 73F in one hour. i went into mass sweating and came out cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 now there's a CF. 93F to 73F in one hour. i went into mass sweating and came out cold. Oh SNAP that wind feels cold... 15mph and 51.4 degrees down from a high of 85 It feels like winter again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 We just got pounded pretty good with hail. This is the 6th time that we have had hail this spring! (That seems like a lot to me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Record cold spring here in the north land. Already down into the 30s tonight, and gonna be more 30s the next two nights. We had multiple snow events in April. I would say throw some heat this way, but I'm going to be broiling in Miami within 2 weeks, so maybe I should savor this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I think fire season North of I-20 will be taking a few weeks off... And the Kimble County fire looks to get rained on. Only SETX is magically protected from rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Thank GOD for the rain! It's just amazing to see this big a change in such a short time - especially during this particularly entrenched drought pattern. Temp 49.6 degrees, winds 10mph NNE; humidity 90%!! We are still just getting light rain out of this event, but it is gratifying to see points west and north get good amounts where they so desperately need it to put out the fires. I'm not ashamed to say that our little community prayed for the rain... wherever it would fall, just to help those who needed it. But we are so grateful to get some too! It is wonderful to see.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I'd like to thank God for the rain ... but we haven't received ANY of it here in Austin. This is about the third or fourth time in the last month where POPs up to 40-50% didn't verify. Watching the Hill Country radar returns move north and away from south central Texas yet again ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Clear skies here, and I can barely see the line along the coast doing so much for locales South and East of the HOU Metro. Missed the yard by 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 SJT has a Frost Advisory... ...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... .HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LYING AREAS FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 holy cow, it rained. a whopping 0.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 SJT has a Frost Advisory... ...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... .HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LYING AREAS FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. Might kill some plants the dry weather hasn't gotten already (but was already stressed), more ready kindling for the next round of fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 holy cow, it rained. a whopping 0.04" Exciting, isn't it?! We received about .08 here in Austin. My sprinkler does better than that in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Exciting, isn't it?! We received about .08 here in Austin. My sprinkler does better than that in 30 minutes. I got all excited yesterday because it MISTED rain!! When droughts get this bad, I have a high level of happy for ANY moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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