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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

CLL POPs tomorrow 40%...

CLIMATE...GOING INTO THIS LAST DAY OF THE MONTH...IAH`S RAINFALL

TOTAL OF 0.11 INCHES WOULD END UP BEING THE DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD

(1ST PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.33 INCHES IN 1937). HOU`S RAINFALL TOTAL

OF A TRACE WOULD END UP BEING THE DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST

PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.06 INCHES IN 1987). GLS`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF

0.12 INCHES WOULD END UP BEING THE 3RD DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST

PLACE IS CURRENTLY 0.00 INCHES IN 1984 AND SECOND PLACE IS

CURRENTLY 0.01 INCHES IN 1887). CLL`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF A TRACE

WOULD END UP BEING THE DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD (1ST PLACE IS

CURRENTLY 0.08 INCHES IN 1984). 42

Morning SPC discusson suggests storms won't initiate South of the surface bounary tomorrow due to capping.

NM drops abouta tenth today locally, it isn't capping so much as tame lower level lapse rates that seem to be preventing more.

post-138-0-52677800-1304184585.gif

post-138-0-76672400-1304184593.gif

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

surprised to see the NAM pop storms over the brazos valley today with a decent round two tomorrow evening. 18z RUC keeps us dry today.

maybe a weak third round of showers monday afternoon? i don't see much in the way of drought-busting, but any rain will do.

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Msalgado

Msalgado

Posted
Posted

Well, why you guys are torching in TX we're just finishing up an incredibly windy April even for NM with a high wind warning tonight. Gusts up to 60 here in Santa Fe. And oh yeah, opening up May with freaking SNOW. Calling for 2-4 inches tomorrow. Last year I remember being shocked at some flurries here in May but 2-4 inches is messed up. I'm used to 90s by this time in south TX.

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Srain

Srain

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Nice to see so much activity on the radar this morning across N TX. Please send some rain further S. Thanks.;)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0830 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 259...260...

VALID 011330Z - 011400Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A

WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED

LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO ROOT SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY

WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE

PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM IN UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/NORTH

OF WIND SHIFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SWRN AR SHORTLY. WW/S

259/260 WILL BE REPLACED TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2011

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

post-32-0-92155100-1304256854.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Just posted in 5/1 severe thread, Parker County cell has some mad rotation as seen on free NWS radar (someday, GR level whatever) and SPC mesoanalysis suggests it crosses the front a county or two East of the Metroplex. I'd expect that to become tornadic quickly if it maintains that long. DFW metro in the 50s, their tornado threat seems near nil.

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

HRRR like Central TX this afternoon. NE TX as well.

We're hopeful here in (south) Central Texas for some decent rains. Don't mind gusty winds and small hail if that comes with it! Keep the rest of it though.

Mid-morning AFD out of New Braunfels says the RUC/NAM strongly target the I-35 corridor north of New Braunfels for severe this afternoon. We shall see.

:guitar:

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

crazy numbers to end april with here too:

warmest and driest apr on record

trace of precip, highs averaging 9.1 deg. above normal

Almost the same here in Austin (Camp Mabry station). Warmest April on record with the average temperature 7.8 degrees above normal and the 6th driest on record.

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Srain

Srain

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Meanwhile SJT has a SWS out for cold weather...:arrowhead:

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING

LIGHT. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM

BOTTOMING OUT BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE

MID TO UPPER 30S AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE

QUESTION THAT A FEW LOW LYING RURAL AREAS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF

FREEZE. THE NORMAL LAST FREEZE TYPICALLY OCCURS IN THE FINAL WEEK

OF MARCH FOR THIS PART OF TEXAS AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE

LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD FOR SAN ANGELO OCCURRED ON APRIL 30...1908.

FOR ABILENE THIS OCCURRED ON APRIL 22...1947. MEASURES SHOULD BE

TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND LIVESTOCK FROM THE COLD

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

If FTW can get storms well behind the front, maybe tomorrow will be better to us in SETX than the models are suggesting.

Or not.

Don't get me started. This is just pitiful. We had a 30-degree temp differential during the heat of the day right before the front passed and still got nada here in Austin. This is a Cap of Death. I'm really wondering if someone cursed us.

:angry:

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Record cold spring here in the north land. Already down into the 30s tonight, and gonna be more 30s the next two nights. We had multiple snow events in April. I would say throw some heat this way, but I'm going to be broiling in Miami within 2 weeks, so maybe I should savor this cold.

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

Thank GOD for the rain! :) It's just amazing to see this big a change in such a short time - especially during this particularly entrenched drought pattern. Temp 49.6 degrees, winds 10mph NNE; humidity 90%!!

We are still just getting light rain out of this event, but it is gratifying to see points west and north get good amounts where they so desperately need it to put out the fires. I'm not ashamed to say that our little community prayed for the rain... wherever it would fall, just to help those who needed it. But we are so grateful to get some too! It is wonderful to see..,

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

I'd like to thank God for the rain ... but we haven't received ANY of it here in Austin. This is about the third or fourth time in the last month where POPs up to 40-50% didn't verify. Watching the Hill Country radar returns move north and away from south central Texas yet again ...

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Srain

Srain

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SJT has a Frost Advisory...

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BRING

A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE

MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE

TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LYING AREAS FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES

INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

SJT has a Frost Advisory...

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BRING

A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE

MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE

TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LYING AREAS FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES

INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

Might kill some plants the dry weather hasn't gotten already (but was already stressed), more ready kindling for the next round of fires.

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

Exciting, isn't it?! :arrowhead:

We received about .08 here in Austin. My sprinkler does better than that in 30 minutes.

I got all excited yesterday because it MISTED rain!! :D When droughts get this bad, I have a high level of happy for ANY moisture...

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