Ed Lizard Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Verbatim, the NAM hates me. Look at the NAM between 57 and 60 hours. Storms to probably Waller County, and poof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 If the trends continue, my fear is we may make a run on 1980 or worse. Oh you HAD to go there. THIS kind of drought plus THAT kind of heat would be... well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 ^ So far that kind of heat is the missing ingredient. Our only hope may well be some form of Tropical Trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 ^ So far that kind of heat is the missing ingredient. Our only hope may well be some form of Tropical Trouble. I just have to believe that when the month (April) is finished, we'll be able to look at the climate maps -- temperature-wise -- for March-April in Texas and compared to "normal" ... it's gonna be way, way above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Congrats MSP for living through a new CLL daily heat record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Congrats MSP for living through a new CLL daily heat record! actually, i'm in southern IN for the weekend. we've had some awful flash flooding up here too. real weird to see rain again. i guarantee it'll rain tomorrow, though, because i have to fly back through DFW to CLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 actually, i'm in southern IN for the weekend. we've had some awful flash flooding up here too. real weird to see rain again. i guarantee it'll rain tomorrow, though, because i have to fly back through DFW to CLL. DFW looks the better chance for delays. I hope Summer Semester is in the plans, 110ºF easy in CLL around Solstice time as dry as the ground is by then, I reckon. Closer to the Gulf, HOU area only around 100 unless we get a dryline through and a West wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Well just got woke about by what looks like the last line of thunderboomers for awhile in Fort Worth. Quite a show, but more importantly once again got the weekly one inch, so that's 3 in the past month. Not everywhere, but some nice long swaths of much needed 2-4 inches and it looks like about 50% of the area will get at least 1/2 inch overnight. Won't break the drought but we're chipping away at it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Congrats to those that got some rain yesterday and the day before. Hopefully those in Central TX can get into the action today. It certainly looks like a rough day for parts of NE TX. Stay safe all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 New NAM basically just misses the house, the forecast CINH is a bit more than can probably be broken this far South away from the action, but it isn't forged steel or anything, and maybe a cold pool can drive a boundary into Harris County. 1.5 inch PW would be happy for my lawn. SREFs not particularly sanguine. The Home Depot generic brand Bermuda, not a thing, but the Scotts Bermuda seed in its own fertilizing soil, and 4 or 5 times a week watering, startiing to come up. Need another can or three to cover all the bare spots, however. I think I heard GLS County is on watering restrictions, many a dead lawn in Harris County if that comes here before that happy season in July and August, not directly tied to tropical season, when little surges of enhanced PW move into Texas from the Gulf and enhance sea breeze activity, those happy days of TCU by lunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 actually, i'm in southern IN for the weekend. we've had some awful flash flooding up here too. real weird to see rain again. i guarantee it'll rain tomorrow, though, because i have to fly back through DFW to CLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 See previous page. NAM CINH over 50, not forged steel, but hard to break. NAM is essentially close, but no cigar, rain metro HOU. 9Z SREFS downright depressing... However, if we did get lucky, while LFC sort of high, low LCLs, good CAPE and nice helicity could provide unexpected excitement. I permaposted images on that page... I'll have a little more faith in the HRRR around the 18Z run, it seems to have been pretty good within a few hours of actual initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Another round passing through with a good bit of marble sized hail. This is the 4th storm to roll through in the past 24 hours and looks like this afternoon/evening might be the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN AR/NORTHWEST LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 251546Z - 251645Z A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK INCLUDING AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF I-35. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN AND HINDER SURFACE HEATING TO A DEGREE...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH WAS ALREADY INDICATIVE OF VERY LITTLE INHIBITION. AIDED BY A PROMINENT SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT ADVANCING COLD FRONT/MODESTLY EASTWARD0ACCELERATING DRYLINE...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE PRE-COLD FRONTAL/DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONSIDERABLE CONCERN AS WELL AS STORMS CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. ..GUYER.. 04/25/2011 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 DFW looks the better chance for delays. I hope Summer Semester is in the plans, 110ºF easy in CLL around Solstice time as dry as the ground is by then, I reckon. Closer to the Gulf, HOU area only around 100 unless we get a dryline through and a West wind. nah, heading home may 10th. may come back in june or july to visit friends, though. maybe i'll time it right to see some hefty triple digit highs. sitting at the indy airport now. plane is supposed to land in DFW around 3:55. not a lot of good weather between here and there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Less than 1" since October last year, after >35" from late June to September. It has been hot but very dry... nothing special, but a couple of 105s and lots of 100s the last 3 weeks. Currently at 104°F with a DP of 12F (4% RH). Wind >25mph should reignite our daily fire threats... urban mountains already have fire scars, and last week helicopters were very busy lifting water from residential pools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Last time that MMMY recorded a trace of precip was March 14th, and before that, measureable precip fell last Jan 15th. That's just way boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Last time that MMMY recorded a trace of precip was March 14th, and before that, measureable precip fell last Jan 15th. That's just way boring. I partly blame heat and drought in the Mexican higher elevations for the strength of our capping, but if every system passes well to our North, usually positively tilted, and we are often under the subsident region of the jet, I can't completely blame the cap. The Gulf is warm enough in normal years low clouds and stratus stuck under the cap that would prevent enough heating to break the cap aren't apparently an issue anymore. I'm trying to remember exactly when the mean ridge gets far enough North that not only are we under deep layer Easterly flow, the ridge subsidence doesn't prevent storms. I think its June. I remember many a 100ºF plus day in Dallas, when even with morning dewpoints near 70ºF that then mixed down during the day, there was enough subsidence for completely cludless skies. If the ridge doesn't get as far North as usual, well, it will be 1980 all over again, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Cleburne in the path of a confirmed damaging tornado, and that cell has a classic hook echo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 And further south, those of us along and to the east of I-35 in south central Texas are under a tornado watch until 10 this evening. Nevermind the tornadoes, I would simply take a heavy thundershower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Less than 1" since October last year, after >35" from late June to September. It has been hot but very dry... nothing special, but a couple of 105s and lots of 100s the last 3 weeks. Currently at 104°F with a DP of 12F (4% RH). Wind >25mph should reignite our daily fire threats... urban mountains already have fire scars, and last week helicopters were very busy lifting water from residential pools. 108/2 and a fire broke out in one of the metro mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I'm thinking our friend msp may not have made it to Dallas. A number of Dallas-bound flights have been diverted to Austin this afternoon. Will be interesting to hear how he fared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 If he can get his bags back, AUS to CLL isn't a long drive, not that someone going to college might be able to spare that kind of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 did make it to DFW, but not by a whole lot. got a routing across STL to KC and then SSW past OKC. landed around 4:30 after being stuck in a holding pattern over oklahoma for a while. scary ride too, as they had us come in from the northwest over arlington and grand prairie and then turn for final approach heading northward. i was sitting on the right side of the plane and got a crazy view of the tor-warned supercell on the south side of the metroplex. we were way too close for comfort. and now just about every flight here is/was delayed or cancelled. still waiting on my 8pm down to CLL, but that leg should be smoother assuming that those two sups are the final things to pass south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Even though every model known to man is bone dry, I remain one one hundred twenty eight full optimistic on rain for my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 well would you look at that. cell pops right over b/cs and we get squat here at A&M. also, helluva ride from DFW to CLL this evening. pilots tried to cut it too close to the storms and we wound up with a roller coaster because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 well would you look at that. cell pops right over b/cs and we get squat here at A&M. also, helluva ride from DFW to CLL this evening. pilots tried to cut it too close to the storms and we wound up with a roller coaster because of it. NAM soundings seem to suggest CINH is too much around Metro Houston, better than -100 J/Kg near peak heating, but AggieLand may get to join in the fun-derstorm action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 well would you look at that. cell pops right over b/cs and we get squat here at A&M. also, helluva ride from DFW to CLL this evening. pilots tried to cut it too close to the storms and we wound up with a roller coaster because of it. The Spotters in Limestone county had a great (and BUSY) night last night... of course, I was caught with no camera but spent the whole time on the radio... But some of the other spotters got some great pics!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 We could challenge the all-time high record today (113F, I don't think we'll break it). Before noon, temp was 104F with a DP of 21F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 man, what does it take to get a watch in the hgx forecast area? anyway, 89/69 here now. nice day with the breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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