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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Portastorm

Portastorm

Posted
Posted

^

So far that kind of heat is the missing ingredient. Our only hope may well be some form of Tropical Trouble.

I just have to believe that when the month (April) is finished, we'll be able to look at the climate maps -- temperature-wise -- for March-April in Texas and compared to "normal" ... it's gonna be way, way above normal.

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msp

msp

Posted
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Congrats MSP for living through a new CLL daily heat record!

actually, i'm in southern IN for the weekend. we've had some awful flash flooding up here too. real weird to see rain again.

i guarantee it'll rain tomorrow, though, because i have to fly back through DFW to CLL.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
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actually, i'm in southern IN for the weekend. we've had some awful flash flooding up here too. real weird to see rain again.

i guarantee it'll rain tomorrow, though, because i have to fly back through DFW to CLL.

DFW looks the better chance for delays.

I hope Summer Semester is in the plans, 110ºF easy in CLL around Solstice time as dry as the ground is by then, I reckon. Closer to the Gulf, HOU area only around 100 unless we get a dryline through and a West wind.

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Witness Protection Program

Witness Protection Program

Posted
Posted

Well just got woke about by what looks like the last line of thunderboomers for awhile in Fort Worth. Quite a show, but more importantly once again got the weekly one inch, so that's 3 in the past month. Not everywhere, but some nice long swaths of much needed 2-4 inches and it looks like about 50% of the area will get at least 1/2 inch overnight. Won't break the drought but we're chipping away at it up here.

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Srain

Srain

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Congrats to those that got some rain yesterday and the day before. Hopefully those in Central TX can get into the action today. It certainly looks like a rough day for parts of NE TX. Stay safe all.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

New NAM basically just misses the house, the forecast CINH is a bit more than can probably be broken this far South away from the action, but it isn't forged steel or anything, and maybe a cold pool can drive a boundary into Harris County. 1.5 inch PW would be happy for my lawn.

SREFs not particularly sanguine.

The Home Depot generic brand Bermuda, not a thing, but the Scotts Bermuda seed in its own fertilizing soil, and 4 or 5 times a week watering, startiing to come up. Need another can or three to cover all the bare spots, however.

I think I heard GLS County is on watering restrictions, many a dead lawn in Harris County if that comes here before that happy season in July and August, not directly tied to tropical season, when little surges of enhanced PW move into Texas from the Gulf and enhance sea breeze activity, those happy days of TCU by lunch time.

post-138-0-63216100-1303742499.gif

post-138-0-06766300-1303742512.gif

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Srain

Srain

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actually, i'm in southern IN for the weekend. we've had some awful flash flooding up here too. real weird to see rain again.

i guarantee it'll rain tomorrow, though, because i have to fly back through DFW to CLL.

:scooter:

post-32-0-40265900-1303742563.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted

See previous page. NAM CINH over 50, not forged steel, but hard to break. NAM is essentially close, but no cigar, rain metro HOU. 9Z SREFS downright depressing... However, if we did get lucky, while LFC sort of high, low LCLs, good CAPE and nice helicity could provide unexpected excitement.

I permaposted images on that page...

I'll have a little more faith in the HRRR around the 18Z run, it seems to have been pretty good within a few hours of actual initiation.

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Srain

Srain

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:scooter:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1046 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK TO

SOUTHERN AR/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251546Z - 251645Z

A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE INTO

THE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO

SOUTHERN OK INCLUDING AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF I-35. A TORNADO WATCH

WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

WHILE LOW LEVEL COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN AND HINDER SURFACE HEATING

TO A DEGREE...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH WAS

ALREADY INDICATIVE OF VERY LITTLE INHIBITION. AIDED BY A PROMINENT

SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT ADVANCING COLD

FRONT/MODESTLY EASTWARD0ACCELERATING DRYLINE...FURTHER

DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN

UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INITIAL

MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE

ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE PRE-COLD FRONTAL/DRYLINE

DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONSIDERABLE

CONCERN AS WELL AS STORMS CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THE ADVANCING

FRONT.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

post-32-0-70195500-1303746965.gif

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

DFW looks the better chance for delays.

I hope Summer Semester is in the plans, 110ºF easy in CLL around Solstice time as dry as the ground is by then, I reckon. Closer to the Gulf, HOU area only around 100 unless we get a dryline through and a West wind.

nah, heading home may 10th. may come back in june or july to visit friends, though. maybe i'll time it right to see some hefty triple digit highs.

sitting at the indy airport now. plane is supposed to land in DFW around 3:55. not a lot of good weather between here and there right now.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Less than 1" since October last year, after >35" from late June to September. It has been hot but very dry... nothing special, but a couple of 105s and lots of 100s the last 3 weeks. Currently at 104°F with a DP of 12F (4% RH). Wind >25mph should reignite our daily fire threats... urban mountains already have fire scars, and last week helicopters were very busy lifting water from residential pools.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
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Last time that MMMY recorded a trace of precip was March 14th, and before that, measureable precip fell last Jan 15th. That's just way boring.

I partly blame heat and drought in the Mexican higher elevations for the strength of our capping, but if every system passes well to our North, usually positively tilted, and we are often under the subsident region of the jet, I can't completely blame the cap.

The Gulf is warm enough in normal years low clouds and stratus stuck under the cap that would prevent enough heating to break the cap aren't apparently an issue anymore.

I'm trying to remember exactly when the mean ridge gets far enough North that not only are we under deep layer Easterly flow, the ridge subsidence doesn't prevent storms. I think its June.

I remember many a 100ºF plus day in Dallas, when even with morning dewpoints near 70ºF that then mixed down during the day, there was enough subsidence for completely cludless skies. If the ridge doesn't get as far North as usual, well, it will be 1980 all over again, IMHO.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Less than 1" since October last year, after >35" from late June to September. It has been hot but very dry... nothing special, but a couple of 105s and lots of 100s the last 3 weeks. Currently at 104°F with a DP of 12F (4% RH). Wind >25mph should reignite our daily fire threats... urban mountains already have fire scars, and last week helicopters were very busy lifting water from residential pools.

108/2 and a fire broke out in one of the metro mountains...

SRxcG.jpg

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msp

msp

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Posted

did make it to DFW, but not by a whole lot. got a routing across STL to KC and then SSW past OKC. landed around 4:30 after being stuck in a holding pattern over oklahoma for a while. scary ride too, as they had us come in from the northwest over arlington and grand prairie and then turn for final approach heading northward. i was sitting on the right side of the plane and got a crazy view of the tor-warned supercell on the south side of the metroplex. we were way too close for comfort.

and now just about every flight here is/was delayed or cancelled. still waiting on my 8pm down to CLL, but that leg should be smoother assuming that those two sups are the final things to pass south of here.

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msp

msp

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well would you look at that. cell pops right over b/cs and we get squat here at A&M.

also, helluva ride from DFW to CLL this evening. pilots tried to cut it too close to the storms and we wound up with a roller coaster because of it.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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well would you look at that. cell pops right over b/cs and we get squat here at A&M.

also, helluva ride from DFW to CLL this evening. pilots tried to cut it too close to the storms and we wound up with a roller coaster because of it.

NAM soundings seem to suggest CINH is too much around Metro Houston, better than -100 J/Kg near peak heating, but AggieLand may get to join in the fun-derstorm action...

post-138-0-58346500-1303827930.gif

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

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Posted

well would you look at that. cell pops right over b/cs and we get squat here at A&M.

also, helluva ride from DFW to CLL this evening. pilots tried to cut it too close to the storms and we wound up with a roller coaster because of it.

The Spotters in Limestone county had a great (and BUSY) night last night... of course, I was caught with no camera but spent the whole time on the radio... But some of the other spotters got some great pics!!

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