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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Witness Protection Program

Witness Protection Program

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile:

Fire Warning

TXC363-192330- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FIRE WARNING

TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 530 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PALO PINTO COUNTY JUDGE...

THIS IS AN EVACUATION NOTICE. EVACUATION OF PALO PINTO CITY IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FIRE.

REMAIN CAUTIOUS...AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE SMOKE IS TOO THICK TO SEE THROUGH. YOU MAY BE DRIVING INTO A FIRE.

$

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile:

Fire Warning

TXC363-192330- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FIRE WARNING

TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 530 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PALO PINTO COUNTY JUDGE...

THIS IS AN EVACUATION NOTICE. EVACUATION OF PALO PINTO CITY IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FIRE.

REMAIN CAUTIOUS...AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE SMOKE IS TOO THICK TO SEE THROUGH. YOU MAY BE DRIVING INTO A FIRE.

$

Not quite as as obvious now, but still there, but you could see the smoke plume from P.P. County on the FWD radar. I was F-5ing a lot waiting for storm initiation.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

hit 96F here today. broke the record high by two degrees.

looks like galveston tied their record high too.

What is the average high/low this time of year for College Station? That just sounds brutally anomalous for mid-April.

I'm wonder if we'll see the heat in the Southern Plains continue into the summer given the dry soil/fire conditions, with that heat ridge eventually spreading to the rest of the country as it did in Summer 1988. I'm aware that was a first year Niña summer within the transition away from El Niño, and those tend to be much hotter nationally...but I'm still not buying the idea of a cold summer which is what the analogs suggest for the summer following a strong Niña. I think the extreme aridity over the Southern Plains could be telling us something about where the ridge will set up, with the Northern Tier staying cooler due to most of the hemisphere's cold air being over Canada in the -EPO pattern that's prevailed recently. Could be an interesting recipe for storms with the ridge over the S. Plains meeting that colder air in the Upper Midwest, might see a lot of cold pool severe events in the Mid-Atlantic like 2008 which had a bit of a similar pattern.

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Srain

Srain

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Fingers crossed...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1123 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX EWD ACROSS THE

GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE

NORTHEAST...

...CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO GA...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT AN EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A MOIST WARM SECTOR

CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER

70S. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS

ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO

WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE

CONTENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME

MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES

INCREASING TO 2000-4000 J/KG.

MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE

PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE NE. AS SUCH...TROPOSPHERIC WIND

FIELD AND LARGE-SCALE FOR ASCENT WILL CORRESPONDINGLY DIMINISH.

NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND

PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED OR ONGOING

STORMS WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP

WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE

OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE

THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS

OF DAYTIME HEATING.

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Srain

Srain

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From Nesdis:

LOCATION...W CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...STNRY CELLS AND FF THREAT BEGINNING TO INCREASE

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTORMS IN W CENTRAL

TX CONTINUES TO EXPAND BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE REMAINING NRLY STNRY

WHERE THEY ORIGINALLY FORMED..ESPECIALLY THOSE IN KIMBLE/MENARD

COUNTIES. FRONTAL BNDRY IS DRAPED W-E ACROSS W CENTRAL TX AND THE

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BEFORE IT TURNS NEWD NR KGRK. SMALL S/WV IMPULSE

TRAVELING SEWD OVER TX AROUND 18Z APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE TRIGGER

TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP OVER

THIS REGION. MOISTURE ASSCD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS STARTED TO

INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AS TWO THINGS HAVE HAPPENED..1)

BLENDED TPW SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 1" PW'S THAT HAD MOVED NEWD ACROSS THE

WRN GOM TDY AND 2) JUST AFTER 18Z THE 85H WIND FLOW ALONG THE TX COAST

BEGAN TURNING FROM SRLY TO SERLY..WHICH WILL SLOWLY ALLOWING GOM MOISTURE

TO SPREAD NWWD INTO THE HEART OF TX OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS. CURRENT PW

VALUES INVOF THE STORMS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 0.9-1.1".

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0130Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER NWWD IT IS UNCERTAIN AT

THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW IT WILL AFFECT THE ONGOING CNVTN OVER W CENTRAL

TX. CURRENT SATL ESTIMATES INDICATE 1-1.5" TOTAL AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN

OVER MENARD/N KIMBLE/S CONCHO/NE SCHLEICHER COUNTIES WITH A MAX OF 1.7"

BUT THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE THE STORMS HAVE BEEN STNRY. WEAK S/WV IMPULSE

CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AND LOWEST CINH PER GOES SOUNDER APPEARS TO BE

PRESENT RIGHT ALONG ITS MOVEMENT. SOME NEW CNVTN MAY EVENTUALLY DVLP

S/SE OF THE CURRENT STORMS OR CELL DVLPMT MAY REMAIN NR THE W-E PORTION

OF THE FRNTL BNDRY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

What is the average high/low this time of year for College Station? That just sounds brutally anomalous for mid-April.

I'm wonder if we'll see the heat in the Southern Plains continue into the summer given the dry soil/fire conditions, with that heat ridge eventually spreading to the rest of the country as it did in Summer 1988. I'm aware that was a first year Niña summer within the transition away from El Niño, and those tend to be much hotter nationally...but I'm still not buying the idea of a cold summer which is what the analogs suggest for the summer following a strong Niña. I think the extreme aridity over the Southern Plains could be telling us something about where the ridge will set up, with the Northern Tier staying cooler due to most of the hemisphere's cold air being over Canada in the -EPO pattern that's prevailed recently. Could be an interesting recipe for storms with the ridge over the S. Plains meeting that colder air in the Upper Midwest, might see a lot of cold pool severe events in the Mid-Atlantic like 2008 which had a bit of a similar pattern.

i think it's around 80/56

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Srain

Srain

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Posted

Maybe some help for the fires in the Davis Mnts and S of Big Bend...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0219 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PECOS RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211919Z - 212015Z

STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE

TX PECOS RIVER VALLEY. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE

HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A WW MAY BE

REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT AND THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

UPDATE WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

WATER VAPOR TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING

ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF W TX. THIS IS EVIDENT IN WSM PROFILER

TIME SERIES WITH FLOW INCREASING BY 20 KTS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS

SINCE THIS MORNING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...IMPLIED

BY EWD MOVING BROKEN CIRRUS SHIELD...IS NOW SPREADING TOWARDS THE S

PLAINS AND THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS

SHOWS 1MB/HR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS THE PAST FEW HOURS SEEMINGLY

REFLECTIVE OF THE UPPER FEATURE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S DEWPOINTS HOLDING ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS

RIVER VALLEY IN SWRN TX. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE

REGION...PREFERABLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN/ HAS ESSENTIALLY

WEAKENED THE REMAINING CAP. AS SUCH...EXPECTING STORM INITIATION BY

20Z NEAR THE GLASS MTNS AND FST.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3500 J/KG MLCAPE

PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW UNDERNEATH

INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL WIND

PROFILE AND RESULT IN STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND BEING CAPABLE OF

LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ONCE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS

ATTAINED. ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLD STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...THE

NATURE OF THE THREAT MAY WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR

OR TWO.

..SMITH.. 04/21/2011

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

post-32-0-80310000-1303414482.gif

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

man, i really didn't realize how exceptionally warm this april has been. right now we've had 7 of the 21 days top out above 90F (avg high just hit 80F), and we're currently running a +7 temp deviation from avg for the month. we're on track to have the 2nd warmest april on record.

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