JB says back of winter is broken

[Ottawa Blizzard]

JB is saying that winter is largely over in the east after Vaentine's Day, or at least that the "back of winter is broken". He says that it might try and move back into the Great Lakes and northern New England but that, for the most part, it's done after the 14th. Any thoughts about this from anyone else? But out the shades later this month, or the snow blowers?

[donsutherland1]

JB is saying that winter is largely over in the east after Vaentine's Day, or at least that the "back of winter is broken". He says that it might try and move back into the Great Lakes and northern New England but that, for the most part, it's done after the 14th. Any thoughts about this from anyone else? But out the shades later this month, or the snow blowers?

If, by his comment that the "back of winter is broken" he means the worst cold in absolute terms will be past, I agree. If, however, he believes the remainder of winter will see temperatures average above normal with little or no snowfall prospects, I disagree.

IMO, the upcoming thaw that should set in around mid-month +/- a few days will last 1-2 weeks. Previously, forecasts that each period of moderation would mark the end of the winter proved incorrect on several occasions. Similarly, the cold anomalies that accumulated have shattered numerous "warm winter" forecasts.

I suspect that any "end of winter" forecasts will meet a similar fate to the earlier ones this time around. In fact, it would not surprise me if much of the northern half of the U.S. (including New England, the Great Lakes region, southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and Middle Atlantic region) is colder than normal at the end of February into the start of March, along with some opportunities for snowfall. Ultimately, winter will yield to spring. But before then, I expect that there will be some additional highlights.

[Ellinwood]

JB is saying that winter is largely over in the east after Vaentine's Day, or at least that the "back of winter is broken". He says that it might try and move back into the Great Lakes and northern New England but that, for the most part, it's done after the 14th. Any thoughts about this from anyone else? But out the shades later this month, or the snow blowers?

My thoughts: It's the second half of Feb... met. winter's almost over, anyway! Also: analogs are still going for a cold March (and maybe some snow with it), but there are truths and untruths to that. Most of that signal calls for the return of the AO/NAO block.

[Matt Rogers]

If, by his comment that the "back of winter is broken" he means the worst cold in absolute terms will be past, I agree. If, however, he believes the remainder of winter will see temperatures average above normal with little or no snowfall prospects, I disagree.

IMO, the upcoming thaw that should set in around mid-month +/- a few days will last 1-2 weeks. Previously, forecasts that each period of moderation would mark the end of the winter proved incorrect on several occasions. Similarly, the cold anomalies that accumulated have shattered numerous "warm winter" forecasts.

I suspect that any "end of winter" forecasts will meet a similar fate to the earlier ones this time around. In fact, it would not surprise me if much of the northern half of the U.S. (including New England, the Great Lakes region, southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and Middle Atlantic region) is colder than normal at the end of February into the start of March, along with some opportunities for snowfall. Ultimately, winter will yield to spring. But before then, I expect that there will be some additional highlights.

I'm looking at the European ensembles this morning, Don, and it seems like they are limiting this "Feb Thaw" to about a week and that your assessment here is looking really good.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the info., Matt. It will be interesting to see how things ultimately play out.

[ApacheTrout]

My thoughts: It's the second half of Feb... met. winter's almost over, anyway! Also: analogs are still going for a cold March (and maybe some snow with it), but there are truths and untruths to that. Most of that signal calls for the return of the AO/NAO block.

You're right. It doesn't take much skill to forecast warmer temperatures are on the way when we're moving steadily toward March. Sure many places will get big snow and intense cold (in 2007 and 2008, the coldest days of winter in Vermont occurred the first week of March), but there's a reason the sap runs in March, not January.

[ski MRG]

Sure. Winter's over on Feb 6th. Average snowfall here for the remainder of the Winter is over 40" and I suspect that we'll beat that by a fair margin. Wasn't JB calling for Winter to end in the East after X-mas? Silly, just silly.

[bluewave]

The models are starting to key in on the idea of a strong Aleutian Ridge developing.

Like Don said,as we progress into March we could see colder weather along

the northern states.If the Aleutian Ridge can become the dominant player for the

month of March,the composite would be a rough estimate of what we could

see.It's still very early to try to figure out the March pattern so the composite would

represent the potential for cold to hold in across the north.

[Ed Lizard]

Hmmm, do both the GFS and Euro seem to suggest a Rex forming in Europe and maybe locking down that pattern for a while?

[Matt Rogers]

The models are starting to key in on the idea of a strong Aleutian Ridge developing.

Like Don said,as we progress into March we could see colder weather along

the northern states.If the Aleutian Ridge can become the dominant player for the

month of March,the composite would be a rough estimate of what we could

see.It's still very early to try to figure out the March pattern so the composite would

represent the potential for cold to hold in across the north.

And you only need to edge that ridge slightly into GOA and Alaska to suppress that Southern ridge once again too. What a winter this has been!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

JBs video from free site explaining why he feels winter may be largely over in the east after this week:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/778628464001/bastardi-one-more-wild-week-then-the-back-of-winter-is-broken.asp

[Ellinwood]

JBs video from free site explaining why he feels winter may be largely over in the east after this week:

http://www.accuweath...r-is-broken.asp

To be fair, in the video JB specifically says that winter will try to keep coming back into "the northern areas" (as he circles the northern third of the U.S., not including the Pac NW) where he thinks winter could stay, and he states that the southern areas (not too far north of the South and Southeast, which did not include most of the Southwest) would be the areas that stay warmer. No where did he say that the EAST would see an end to winter after this week.

[uncle W]

winters like 1947-48, 1960-61 and 1993-94 all had major thaws the third week of February...1960-61 saw a three week thaw and the other two one week each...1994 and 1948 saw more storms after the thaw giving NYC almost another foot of snow...1960-61 saw plenty of storms but it was just mild enough to prevent any major snow along the coast...The cold continued into May in 1961 but the other years had a nice Spring...

[bluewave]

And you only need to edge that ridge slightly into GOA and Alaska to suppress that Southern ridge once again too. What a winter this has been!

I agree.That would be a big reversal of the pattern that we saw last March.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Often a big storm will form at the end of a warm up as the cold air moves back in. February 23,1994 is a good example of this.

[donsutherland1]

To be fair, in the video JB specifically says that winter will try to keep coming back into "the northern areas" (as he circles the northern third of the U.S., not including the Pac NW) where he thinks winter could stay, and he states that the southern areas (not too far north of the South and Southeast, which did not include most of the Southwest) would be the areas that stay warmer. No where did he say that the EAST would see an end to winter after this week.

The video seems more reasonable, at least from how I view things. I do believe that the cold will be a more expansive than what the video suggests (probably extending across the northern half of the U.S.). It will be interesting to see how things work out.

[Zir0b]

12z euro tries to develop a nice -AO/-NAO combo day 8+, but the pacific side does not look as good with a GOA low.

[A-L-E-X]

winters like 1947-48, 1960-61 and 1993-94 all had major thaws the third week of February...1960-61 saw a three week thaw and the other two one week each...1994 and 1948 saw more storms after the thaw giving NYC almost another foot of snow...1960-61 saw plenty of storms but it was just mild enough to prevent any major snow along the coast...The cold continued into May in 1961 but the other years had a nice Spring...

Another winter which would have been a good analog for our parts in terms of sensible weather was 2003-04... blockbuster snowy and cold Dec and Jan, Feb pattern relaxed and it returned to snowy and cold again for March. 2000-01 was also like that, except we missed the big snow because the phase occurred 6 hours too late in March 2001.

[Ellinwood]

The video seems more reasonable, at least from how I view things. I do believe that the cold will be a more expansive than what the video suggests (probably extending across the northern half of the U.S.). It will be interesting to see how things work out.

I pretty much have the same forecast, with expansive cold over the mid-country and into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (a January repeat?), with aboves along most of the West Coast and more moderate temps in the Northeast/eastern Canada.

[JBG]

You're right. It doesn't take much skill to forecast warmer temperatures are on the way when we're moving steadily toward March. Sure many places will get big snow and intense cold (in 2007 and 2008, the coldest days of winter in Vermont occurred the first week of March), but there's a reason the sap runs in March, not January.

Sure. Winter's over on Feb 6th. Average snowfall here for the remainder of the Winter is over 40" and I suspect that we'll beat that by a fair margin. Wasn't JB calling for Winter to end in the East after X-mas? Silly, just silly.

I agree.That would be a big reversal of the pattern that we saw last March.

If I recall correctly many La Niña winters in the 1950's, 1967 and 1971 featured wild Marches. Does anyone have a fix on how the pre-1950 Niñas such as 1915-6, 1909-10, and the various 1800's winters we've been using as analogs did in late February through March?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I just watched JBs long ranger and he clarified a few things. He says winter is done in the southeast, including Florida. He also says that areas north of I-80, including my region, will be the battleground region, basically what he had envsioned for January and February. This may be good nes for those of us in SE Canada, NNY and NNE. Late February/ March 1971 and 2008 redux hopefully.

[A-L-E-X]

If I recall correctly many La Niña winters in the 1950's, 1967 and 1971 featured wild Marches. Does anyone have a fix on how the pre-1950 Niñas such as 1915-6, 1909-10, and the various 1800's winters we've been using as analogs did in late February through March?

You read my mind-- look up March 1893 during the strong la nina of 1892-93 (one of the strongest on record), one of Don's analogs.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I laughed out loud when looking at February 1971 in Ottawa. Just an absolutely sick month.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1971&Month=2&Day=5

[snowstormcanuck]

I laughed out loud when looking at February 1971 in Ottawa. Just an absolutely sick month.

http://www.climate.w...1&Month=2&Day=5

That's some damn impressive snowdepth.

[Organizing Low]

That's some damn impressive snowdepth.

1993 FTW

[klw]

In Dec., didnt JB say that winter would end at New Years

In Jan didn't JB say that winter would end at the end of the month

In February JB is saying Winter will end this month.

Eventually he will be right.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1993 FTW

You're right. I think March 1993 beat the 1971 record for snow depth.

1960, 1971 and 1993 are the only recorded times when Ottawa saw a snowpack of over 100cm

[Ottawa Blizzard]

In Dec., didnt JB say that winter would end at New Years

In Jan didn't JB say that winter would end at the end of the month

In February JB is saying Winter will end this month.

Eventually he will be right.

Judging by the latest gFS, he may be right about winter holding on north of I-80.

[Snow Wizard]

Sure. Winter's over on Feb 6th. Average snowfall here for the remainder of the Winter is over 40" and I suspect that we'll beat that by a fair margin. Wasn't JB calling for Winter to end in the East after X-mas? Silly, just silly.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but it's hard to ignore the tanking PNA forecasts. Maybe the end of this winter will look like most people expected the entire winter to look. On the other hand I still find it hard to be very hopeful that anything meaningful will happen in the NW.

That's pretty amazing that normal snowfall for the remainder of the winter is 40 inches in your area!

[nzucker]

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but it's hard to ignore the tanking PNA forecasts. Maybe the end of this winter will look like most people expected the entire winter to look. On the other hand I still find it hard to be very hopeful that anything meaningful will happen in the NW.

That's pretty amazing that normal snowfall for the remainder of the winter is 40 inches in your area!

I always expected February to be the best month for the Pacific Northwest this winter; it's pretty typical for the trough to shift into the West in February during a strong La Niña. We saw this pattern in 54-55 and 88-89, so I'm not shocked it's repeating itself. Your area looks to stay within a trough for a while as the SE becomes more dominant, should be a fun period as long as the GoA low isn't too strong.