Riptide Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The connection between the Feb 8th storm and this potential MECS must be significant because now we are seeing suppression. I hope I'm wrong and the vort is still over the ocean and poorly initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hmm i saw that.. thats a glimmer of hope. still over 100 hrs out, lots of time Looks like 3 of them would be a semi decent hit. Should keep an eye on this moving forward as it will help determine possible trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the point I was trying to make was this. Lets say Wes writes up a 1400 word blog today about how the PV is going to crush the storms chances of amplifying and turning up the coast and most readers now believe they are not getting a snowstorm. And then tonight at 00z, the PV orientation is completely different and the models then all bring the storm back. Then what? Well you can't blame the met for the message if the met accurately analyzes the info that is in front of him. If changes need to be made, they are made. And to your comment re the JMA; it looks more promising for the Tuesday storm than the Thurs./Friday event or non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well you can't blame the met for the message if the met accurately analyzes the info that is in front of him. If changes need to be made, they are made. And to your comment re the JMA; it looks more promising for the Tuesday storm than the Thurs./Friday event or non-event. But Ji is correct...IF a met does this it should be considered model hugging, no matter who it is. Wes doesn't do this, and I know Ji wasn't meaning he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 see, you guys do treat me like a god. katie actually called me one in another thread. One of the things I like about the CWG guys, is none hype events and we usually are pretty conservative iin jumping to conclusions. Overall, the people here are pretty protective of mets that post here. The exceptions are usually those that bring some of it on themselves. I'm happy to see young knowledgable guys like DTK around to answer model questions. There are also lots of knowledeable not mets like You, Don Sutherland and a number of others that make really good posts at times. I think weenies are fine too as most of us are weenies at heart and as kid I did get mad at the mets when a snow forecast busted and I had to go to school. Of course most of us like to play some with our comments too and sometimes it's hard to tell when people are playing or not. I think that sometimes gets all of us in trouble. I usually use a emoticon if I'm being playful but not always. As usual, I agree with you. This is a weather forum, not just for mets, but for everyone who takes great interest in the weather. The hostility in here is pretty immature at times IMO. I don't know everyone yet but there are some folks who literally don't comment unless it's a snarky, sardonic attack at someone's post. I think less hostility and more group commradarie would make this forum a lot more cohesive. The hostility is definitely more noticeable when storms are going down the Sh*tter. Also, the double standard in here is pretty obtrusive. Sometimes essentially identical comments are made and one person is scrutinized for it and the other lauded based on seniority/ perceived credibility. I know I've been a victim of this many times. Often I'll say something in line with one of the mets but with less scientific support/lingo woven in. I am not a met so obviously that comes with the territory, but I am entitled to my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 helluva title to this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hmm i saw that.. thats a glimmer of hope. still over 100 hrs out, lots of time I wish I had seen the ensemble before posting my bliog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I wish I had seen the ensemble before posting my bliog. LOL!!.....So ironic in a couple of different ways....don't worry Wes...you can adjust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL!!.....So ironic in a couple of different ways....don't worry Wes...you can adjust! Yes, but I looked at the members a little closer and they still are glancing blow more than bit hits and with the lower resolution the precip gradient is usually looser than it would be on the higher resolution models. I may have needed to equivocate more but if it snows, ji will be happy unless it's at my house and not his. Now that would be irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 euro ens mean is sucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes, but I looked at the members a little closer and they still are glancing blow more than bit hits and with the lower resolution the precip gradient is usually looser than it would be on the higher resolution models. I may have needed to equivocate more but if it snows, ji will be happy unless it's at my house and not his. Now that would be irony. still not a Secs in any event at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 euro ens mean is sucky Congrats on the birthday BECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Congrats on the birthday BECS! Ji FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I hate the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Precip close but pushed SE by the PV to the north. Subtle changes can mean big diffs. There is no way that anyone can say with 100% confidence that the OTS solution is totally correct and will verify. Either way, I would much rather be screwed to the SE than to the NW. If everything was showing a NW solution right now I would much more likely to bail at this point but a SE miss will keep me entertained until Tuesday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084s.gif I'll ride this 84 hr nam and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Do like the 18z NAMs look at 84.......I know...I will not post the image....NAM is "Out of Range" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ride it right OTS...it's a glorified cold front for the MA... http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084s.gif I'll ride this 84 hr nam and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the nam does look pretty decent comparatively. i guess we can hope it's higher resolution will map the vort better than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Do like the 18z NAMs look at 84.......I know...I will not post the image....NAM is "Out of Range" the last 3 or 4 frames is when the NAM gets itself in the most trouble (along with anyone betting on them) once 60 hrs or less, you can often see it come around to the other models (or, the other models come around to the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the nam does look pretty decent comparatively. i guess we can hope it's higher resolution will map the vort better than the globals. I've been much happier with how the NAM has been handling the upper levels this winter, so I've been leaning that way a bit. Not locking it in, but the 84h matches up with my general thoughts better than the other models at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I've been much happier with how the NAM has been handling the upper levels this winter, so I've been leaning that way a bit. Not locking it in, but the 84h matches up with my general thoughts better than the other models at this point in time. it has its strengths.. i think it sniffs some things out even at the end of its cycle from time to time. but you need at least a few runs under your belt to know what it's really showing and we're just now getting into the range of importance. we need the nw/amped shift to start occurring with real heart soon.its also verbatim still rather strong with the activity north so im not sure it's that good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 it has its strengths.. i think it sniffs some things out even at the end of its cycle from time to time. but you need at least a few runs under your belt to know what it's really showing and we're just now getting into the range of importance. we need the nw/amped shift to start occurring with real heart soon.its also verbatim still rather strong with the activity north so im not sure it's that good anyway. True that. I would also be a lot happier with this storm if more models were showing better signs of going neutral-tilt towards the end of the NAM range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the northern stream is still pretty dominant...I think people look at the qpf field and think "hey look at the nice stripe of precip pointing at the mid atlantic"...unfortunately that's mainly in response to the northern stream impulse which is in the process of beginning to squash the southern stream. it has its strengths.. i think it sniffs some things out even at the end of its cycle from time to time. but you need at least a few runs under your belt to know what it's really showing and we're just now getting into the range of importance. we need the nw/amped shift to start occurring with real heart soon.its also verbatim still rather strong with the activity north so im not sure it's that good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 at 84 hrs, NAM has a piece of energy coming down over N Dakota and hangs back more energy over the SW if there's any hope it seems the energy in the SW and what the NAM is showing needs to consolidate or its OTS like all the models are showing but that's assuming the N stream just doesn't act to overwhelm everything and the he!! with consolidating the energy http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, just going by the h5 map, can't say I like the NAM..looks like its headed the way of the globals. I hear all this stuff about this being our last shot..not sure that's true. It certainly looks bleak, but March can be wicked around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, just going by the h5 map, can't say I like the NAM..looks like its headed the way of the globals. I hear all this stuff about this being our last shot..not sure that's true. It certainly looks bleak, but March can be wicked around here for snow lovers. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs even further south LOL...well now it has reached about as far south and ots as it possibly can...I said earlier that there's still time for it to either die out over the gulf or come up the coast...step one is finished...it can only get better from here...or not :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Damn NS energy is fooking us again. I don't like the NAM much at all. 18Z GFS is confirming the same. We're getting into the range where big swings are much less likely. If anything is going to happen, 0Z is going to have to start the baby steps in the right direction and every run thereafter needs to show the southern stream energy taking over and digging in for a more amped solution. Otherwise, we all know what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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