Fail and Fooked

[PhineasC]

Didn't try very hard. Not close at all. Didn't make it.

[Ellinwood]

you know what I say?

tough

if you can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen

my comment re JB was spot on and, he's part of a pay package at Accuwx, so I have every right, as does anyone else, to criticize mets WHEN THEY MAKE BONEHEAD CALLS, especially if you are paying for their opinion

JB has an undisputed history (by even him) of hyping events

if he, or anyone else, is going to do it such that his prediction looks idiotic, then he will look like an idiot when it fails as the alternative is a measured approach

now, if he verifies, he goes from village idiot to Einstein, Jr., but he has shown he is more than willing to take that risk

anyway, you think JB cares what I say? he can take care of himself

You're just as bad as Ji.

First part: I can handle the heat, as can most others. Criticisms are fine, but do it with real reasoning and not crap like "but the model(s) aren't showing it!" I'm not saying that you do, but there are people who do this.

Second part: Are all of these bonehead calls? Yeah, we have an idea (probably a better idea) with what will happen later this week, but we're still 4+ days away and no one should declare a forecast to be a bonehead call this far out (especially without fully understanding why the forecast is the way it is). I live by the philosophy that forecasts should only really be bashed after the fact when we actually get the verification.

Third part: I never said that JB cares or that people think JB does care (and you can insert any other forecaster's name in place of his). I have no idea where you pulled that from.

[weathervswife]

GFS wins again. Some mets painted themselves into a corner again forecasting lockstep with the Euro. If this winter has taught me anything, it's to go with the majority consensus. The outliers have rarely been correct. How about some temps days 7-10, Midlo?

[stormtracker]

monster hit coming...i can feel it

'

I meant for buoy 45769

[lester]

Another one bites the dust..on to hurricane season

[chris87]

jackpot

'

I meant for buoy 45769

[thesnowsknows]

Midlo said the vort was digging further out west on this run. Is it possible that the surface is a little underdone considering this or is it just getting that washed out by the northern vort?

[mitchnick]

You're just as bad as Ji.

First part: I can handle the heat, as can most others. Criticisms are fine, but do it with real reasoning and not crap like "but the model(s) aren't showing it!" I'm not saying that you do, but there are people who do this.

Second part: Are all of these bonehead calls? Yeah, we have an idea (probably a better idea) with what will happen later this week, but we're still 4+ days away and no one should declare a forecast to be a bonehead call this far out (especially without fully understanding why the forecast is the way it is). I live by the philosophy that forecasts should only really be bashed is after the fact when we actually get the verification.

Third part: I never said that JB cares or that people think JB does care (and you can insert any other forecaster's name in [place of his). I have no idea where you pulled that from.

apparently you are unaware of the fact that JB asked the question referring to this storm "is the real blizzard of the century coming?" and then promptly discussed the 1993 superstorm, blizzard of 78' and January bliz of 66'

and now, it not only looks as if there will be no bliz for anyone, but no storm containing measurable snow of consequence north of the VA/NC border

that is why I made my original comment

if you want to defend JB for those comments and forecast discussion, no disrespect, but knock yourself out

EDIT: or let me rephrase it, if you want to defend those comments as not being idiotic, no disrespect intended, knock yourself out

[Ian]

epic fail

so much for my feb mecs.. shoulda been a met im wrong so much!

[WinterWxLuvr]

I feel like the GFS 6z solution from Friday is the most likely scenario at this time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

epic fail

so much for my feb mecs.. shoulda been a real met im wrong so much!

You're not wrong yet.

[VBsurf]

anyone have the euro output for ORF? thanks in advance

[Ian]

You're not wrong yet.

no but i thought maybe this was it based on where we were. it could still be but the moves of late are not so promising.

[dtk]

This has just been a really complicated winter. I don't disagree that flip flopping with the models is reaching an all time high. But at the same time I don't think there is much other guidance of value after d1 or d2 to pay as much attention to.

To be honest, I'm not even sure whether or not this statement has any validity or not. "Flip-flopping" model solutions can be a good thing (particularly in the medium range), so long as the guidance is showing the possibility of realistic/plausible scenarios [and then therefore needs to be used in portraying confidence/probability, etc.]. We get some of this notion with the ensembles, but they have their flaws too (reduced resolution, different physics, under representation of model error, sub-part initial perturbations).

Also, we have seen plenty of cases where a particular model has been remarkably consistent (consistently wrong), lulling people into a false sense of confidence.

Lastly, as an aside, I will say that going forward this has the potential to be occurring more frequently (variable model solutions, flip-flopping, etc.), IMO, as we continue to attempt to run numerical models at higher and higher resolution.

[WinterWxLuvr]

no but i thought maybe this was it based on where we were. it could still be but the moves of late are not so promising.

I hear ya. But if I was being modeled with a crippling storm right now, I wouldn't trust it at all. So why should I trust this either. I feel strongly that what we are being shown is not what will happen 4-5 days from now. What it will be, I won't speculate, but I can't wait to see what actually happens. To be quite truthful, I'm ready for this to end. The sun today, which by the way is getting brighter and stronger, is making wish I could see my grass, get outside and start working.

[usedtobe]

After reading Midlo's comment about the 72 hour being more diggy I was worried since I had finished my blog and had concluded that the ensembles are pretty uniform in handling the vortex over Canada which is the main reason the southwest system jsut shears into oblivion. Course I'm a met so probably shouldn't post since we're always wrong.

[midatlanticweather]

'

I meant for buoy 45769

Boat storm chase!

[Ian]

After reading Midlo's comment about the 72 hour being more diggy I was worried since I had finished my blog and had concluded that the ensembles are pretty uniform in handling the vortex over Canada which is the main reason the southwest system jsut shears into oblivion. Course I'm a met so probably shouldn't post since we're always wrong.

sigh

[Ellinwood]

apparently you are unaware of the fact that JB asked the question referring to this storm "is the real blizzard of the century coming?" and then promptly discussed the 1993 superstorm, blizzard of 78' and January bliz of 66'

and now, it not only looks as if there will be no bliz for anyone, but no storm containing measurable snow of consequence north of the VA/NC border

that is why I made my original comment

if you want to defend JB for those comments and forecast discussion, no disrespect, but knock yourself out

EDIT: or let me rephrase it, if you want to defend those comments as not being idiotic, no disrespect intended, knock yourself out

Trust me, I think he's wrong, especially when he hypes the storms the way he does. We won't truly know whether he is or not until the end of the week, which is why I find the nonconstructive criticisms to be unwarranted. While I do think the solution you're suggesting is more correct, you're also basing your thoughts simply on the models and with what limited experience you have. All of the forecasters that have been bashed have their reasoning, and within the reasoning there are some truths... you just have to be able to disseminate these truths from the hype/BS, glean what useful information you can and move on.

[winterymix]

Lastly, as an aside, I will say that going forward this has the potential to be occurring more frequently (variable model solutions, flip-flopping, etc.), IMO, as we continue to attempt to run numerical models at higher and higher resolution.

Please forgive me if my question is horrid but here goes; I get the impression that each model run is a fresh start and fresh slate initialized based on the most current objective data. If true, this approach, itself, can lead to big swings in solutions because the quality of the initialization data can vary. Would solutions have more continuity and accuracy if the previous solutions were given some appropriate weight? The atmosphere is a fluid and doesn't jump around the way the models jump. The run to run vacillations are a measure of our imperfect data and imperfect algorythms, not a true model of atmosphere behavior.

[Fozz]

I hear ya. But if I was being modeled with a crippling storm right now, I wouldn't trust it at all. So why should I trust this either. I feel strongly that what we are being shown is not what will happen 4-5 days from now. What it will be, I won't speculate, but I can't wait to see what actually happens. To be quite truthful, I'm ready for this to end. The sun today, which by the way is getting brighter and stronger, is making wish I could see my grass, get outside and start working.

We'll get plenty of spring when the time comes.

[Ellinwood]

sigh

To be honest, I think Wes is just joking around more than anything, where as I'm the only one who's really going on this little mission. I'm just trying to make sure the mods stay on top of this stuff and to provide a better enforcing of the rules before it gets (even more?) out of control.

[Wonderdog]

It would be interesting and probably somewhat instructive to see a graphic showing which model had the correct or close to correct solution from six days out, five days out, and so on regardless of any flip-flops along the way to verification.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

I hate to say it, but this storm is probably dead and so is the rest of the winter...Ill take one good storm I guess :/

[Ian]

To be honest, I think Wes is just joking around more than anything, where as I'm the only one who's really going on this little mission. I'm just trying to make sure the mods stay on top of this stuff and to provide a better enforcing of the rules before it gets (even more?) out of control.

by and large most mets are treated like gods here. good luck finding a lot of places where you get people throwing themselves at you just because you 'wear' a red tag.

[Yeoman]

I hate to say it, but this storm is probably dead and so is the rest of the winter...Ill take one good storm I guess :/

great post.. no need to make any more. thanks

[Ellinwood]

Please forgive me if my question is horrid but here goes; I get the impression that each model run is a fresh start and fresh slate initialized based on the most current objective data. If true, this approach, itself, can lead to big swings in solutions because the quality of the initialization data can vary. Would solutions have more continuity and accuracy if the previous solutions were given some appropriate weight? The atmosphere is a fluid and doesn't jump around the way the models jump. The run to run vacillations are a measure of our imperfect data and imperfect algorythms, not a true model of atmosphere behavior.

From what I can recall I think that some of the past data/forecast is used when running the next set of updates (for some models, anyway), but I could be wrong. I'll let dtk clarify that for sure.

by and large most mets are treated like gods here. good luck finding a lot of places where you get people throwing themselves at you just because you 'wear' a red tag.

Just because I said bashing was wrong doesn't mean I want the exact opposite (no criticisms or complete loyalty/respect) to be true. I for one welcome criticism so long as people have a reasonable counterpoint. I had said multiple times on Eastern that I do not expect to have anything given to me just because I have a red tag. Instead I prefer to earn the respect of others through my forecasts and realistic approach to the weather.

[usedtobe]

by and large most mets are treated like gods here. good luck finding a lot of places where you get people throwing themselves at you just because you 'wear' a red tag.

I certainly am treated that way here and at 40s and Ji was being Ji.

[winter_warlock]

I hate to say it, but this storm is probably dead and so is the rest of the winter...Ill take one good storm I guess :/

bold statement to make considering we still have over 100 hrs left till this storm is even here , im waiting till were inside of 48-72 hrs before i give up, tooo many times this winter we gave up only to see a nw shift in last 48 hrs.

[Ian]

Just because I said bashing was wrong doesn't mean I want the exact opposite (no criticisms or complete loyalty/respect) to be true. I for one welcome criticism so long as people have a reasonable counterpoint. I had said multiple times on Eastern that I do not expect to have anything given to me just because I have a red tag. Instead I prefer to earn the respect of others through my forecasts and realistic approach to the weather.

Your statement about the mods just shows you have little clue how much we cater to the mets and how much we realize how important they are to a site like this. We've spent the better part of a decade trying to make them feel as comfortable as possible. A year like this is much trickier than last yr. Everyone who makes a forecast about anything be it weather or strategic or otherwise is 'wrong' quite a bit. If no one is ever on your case it's probably a good sign you are making no impact on your field.