Fail and Fooked

[Huffwx]

The NAM still has a stronger northern vort that would begin to shear out that southern piece.--check it at 84 hours.

[thesnowsknows]

Normally I would be ready to punt this one clear across but due to model inconsistency and the looming threat for a NW trend, I actually think this is far from over.

This is my first season getting involved on the boards and learning the models and even I have already learned not to take every single run to the bank.

I just don't see this storm being that compressed. Call it wishcasting but weighing the typical Nina factors with how the models have run this year, I am fairly sure the solutions we are seeing are going to be vastly different with a whole new set of issues come 12z tuesday.

[mitchnick]

GFS is making Tues more interesting

[Yeoman]

Normally I would be ready to punt this one clear across but due to model inconsistency and the looming threat for a NW trend, I actually think this is far from over.

This is my first season getting involved on the boards and learning the models and even I have already learned not to take every single run to the bank.

I just don't see this storm being that compressed. Call it wishcasting but weighing the typical Nina factors with how the models have run this year, I am fairly sure the solutions we are seeing are going to be vastly different with a whole new set of issues come 12z tuesday.

great post

[TUweathermanDD]

GFS is making Tues more interesting

Definitely, GFS did lead the way with the trend originally on that event so gotta pay attention to it.

[Dalfy]

Because he's not modelcasting? I'm not saying he's right, but to discount someone's thoughts because of what a model says is not a good counter-point. I'm still thinking that we could see a more impressive storm than what the current models show in that range.

Also, to those comparing the 06z NAM and GFS... look at the 850mb temps near the end... NAM is more amped. Look at the upper-levels... NAM is slower (and also more amped here as well), both with the southern vort and with the polar vort. They're quite different in day 3.

Do you know what happens to the southern vort as it moves towards us? its breaking apart but for what reason?

[North Balti Zen]

Northern vort, crushing hope on this run too. Congrats, Bermuda. Again. Just an amazing shift with this system in terms of what the worry for it busting was. This remains the polar opposite (heh, polar) of the too warm/lakes cutter worry of 48 hours ago.

Here's to hoping to get a come-from-behind win on temps for the Tuesday chance at a few inches.

[weathervswife]

It's even worser

[North Balti Zen]

It's even worser

Yeah, brutal for you all who were looking at a sizable storm through sw and se virginia from the last couple of days of runs. Still time for the models to relax the energy a bit that is washing it out and give you all your storm back though.

[MDstorm]

<br />GFS is making Tues more interesting<br />

<br /><br /><br />

GFS is making Thursday less interesting. Southern energy wimps out again.

MDstorm

[PhineasC]

cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry

It just keeps on rolling.

[winter_warlock]

Yeah, brutal for you all who were looking at a sizable storm through sw and se virginia from the last couple of days of runs. Still time for the models to relax the energy a bit that is washing it out and give you all your storm back though.

i agree, we still have nearly 120 hrs to go... and how many times have we seen storm tracks shift nw as the storm gets closer?? its happened alot this winter. still 5 days away chill people still got 10 euro runs , and 20 gfs runs, so plz dont hang on every run

[MD Snow]

If we get dry slotted with the storm on tuesday and everything is north and then miss the thursday system to the south that would really top off the winter...don't think it will happen but that would be horrible.

[North Balti Zen]

i agree, we still have nearly 120 hrs to go... and how many times have we seen storm tracks shift nw as the storm gets closer?? its happened alot this winter. still 5 days away chill people still got 10 euro runs , and 20 gfs runs, so plz dont hang on every run

I was talking more for the folks who were already mentally shoveling their snow across the southern part of Virginia. They don't need a lot of change to give them some of their storm back. But I really don't hold out a lot of hope for up where I am at this point. Maybe the Euro can find a little something, but hard to feel optimistic about it doing so at this point.

[winter_warlock]

I was talking more for the folks who were already mentally shoveling their snow across the southern part of Virginia. They don't need a lot of change to give them some of their storm back. But I really don't hold out a lot of hope for up where I am at this point. Maybe the Euro can find a little something, but hard to feel optimistic about it doing so at this point.

the way the models have been this winter, i wouldnt trust what they say now anyway especailly 5 days out. id just relax, watch the trends and wait till we get inside of 72 hrs before giving up

[Dr No]

To me it's more of a Friday storm now- since it appears that it will miss the phase with the northern stream in the plains on Tue/Wed. There would be no reason for the energy to eject out of the the SW so fast then.

I still feel that it could track west of the southern apps then jump to the MA coast, especially with a slower evolution.

[Ellinwood]

To me it's more of a Friday storm now- since it appears that it will miss the phase with the northern stream in the plains on Tue/Wed. There would be no reason for the energy to eject out of the the SW so fast then.

I still feel that it could track west of the southern apps then jump to the MA coast, especially with a slower evolution.

I would be careful with saying that it will come later... there's another vort area coming in behind it to act as a kicker, which was something that ended up kicking my ass the last time I said that the storm would trend later.

[Ian]

guess there is no reason for us to post then since we are useless.  <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/whistle.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=''

when did everyone become so sensitive?

[Ian]

This winter especially has made me agree with Ji in the sense that it seems the mets are letting machines take over their jobs. The forecasts flip right along with the models. The most the HPC/NWS will do is mention what they think is a slight alternative to what the models are showing. But really they are just sitting around watching the models without a significant original idea for themselves.

It's a little disturbing. I'm curious to see where forecasting goes within the next few years and if mets can start to integrate more of their own practice into forecasts rather than just model gazing.

this is a ridiculous post

[winter_warlock]

I wish he still posted here. He would get so mad at anyone who questioned his forecast. On a storm like this, he'd argue and fight for days that he was right and everyone else was wrong. When he ended up wrong, he'd disappear for months.

yep, he has been right before, but hes wrong more often then right, i think he jumps the gun too much, like JB, too much hype, which is crazy more than 100 hrs out, too much can and will happen, after the way the models have been this winter, im surprised more people dont relax and wait. and as far as LC goes... even a broke clock is right 2 times a day

[Ellinwood]

when did everyone become so sensitive?

Since when has there been so much met-bashing?

this is a ridiculous post

So delete it, Admin. You have that right and responsibility.

[Ian]

Since when has there been so much met-bashing?

since always?

the weenies need to stfu up though or ppl will just be banned without warning.. especially those who have never made a call in their lives. but still. a generic comment at hpc or someone saying lc is wrong a lot is not a hit at you or wes.

[winter_warlock]

Since when has there been so much met-bashing?

So delete it, Admin. You have that right and responsibility.

im not bashing LC, he just makes very bold statements, and is usually wrong .. but i dont think its fair to bash METS because of what models say, or because the models dont give a persons area a snowstorm, people need to realize that models are a tool, only

[real]

I do not know who made the comment in comment in question that some intreprepted bashing mets, but I highly doubt they intended it to be perceived as it was.

I am sure 99.9 percent of the people on this board have nothing but tremendous respect for the red taggers. However there is a broader and underlying point that this discussion brings up.

I talk to a lot of people about weather, and it does seem that many members of Joe Q public increasingly have similar questions about whether Met's rely too much on models.

For whatever reasons, they say everything now appears to be centered on models and they question whether Mets still use their own knowledge and instinct and experience. This is something that field may have address internally at some point.

Part of this undoubtedly stems from the fact most of the people they identify as "mets" -- i.e. the tv guys -- really aren't mets by training. Beyond that, I think models are discussed more than they used to - so the public has more familiarity with them. (Consider Cap. Weather familiarizing people with names like NAM, EURO and GFS).

The sad thing is when DC area forecasters have tried to use their experience knowledge and training to give a forecast that was at odds with what the models say, they got burned. Some area METS thought the models were overdoing the precip and underdoing the temperatures for Jan 26. We all know how that turned out.

Anyway, just something for Red taggers to to consider. I am just relying what I hear from others, and it seems like this winter that sentiment has intensified.

[Ellinwood]

since always?

the weenies need to stfu up though or ppl will just be banned without warning.. especially those who have never made a call in their lives. but still. a generic comment at hpc or someone saying lc is wrong a lot is not a hit at you or wes.

The bashing has been more prevalent lately than what I'm used to seeing. Granted I haven't been around for that long, but this is by far the most I've seen in the year+ I've been actively reading/posting.

One problem that is starting to pop up more and more is people misquoting or misinterpreting what the mets are saying. I actually had to defend JB in the main forum because someone had misquoted him saying that JB claimed that winter was going to end in the East after next week, when in fact it was the south, and that the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic still have a decent chance of more wintry weather. It makes me wonder just how much of the disseminated information on here is entirely truthful and is proper justification for the bashing.

So far only Ji has lashed out against mets in a more general sense (recently), but the instigation could lead to more and more generalizations that aren't warranted in any shape or form. I don't really take offense at that particular Ji post, but it seems like it won't be too long before the flood gates open. Forgive me for seeming a little paranoid about it all, but the recent talk has been a little off-putting.

[winter_warlock]

hmm of course if LC is right, then alot of us will be looking like idiots for bashing him . but thats how it goes, weather is very hard to predict escpecailly for mid atl.

[Ian]

im not bashing LC, he just makes very bold statements, and is usually wrong .. but i dont think its fair to bash METS because of what models say, or because the models dont give a persons area a snowstorm, people need to realize that models are a tool, only

i think it's totally fair to rate someone based on their merits and there are clearly mets who are not as good as others. being wrong a fair amount has always been a big part of being a met. i dont know when mentioning that sometimes a met is wrong became a crime. clearly some go way overboard tho.

[weathervswife]

GGEM is complete and utter miss...for EVERYONE. Reasonable people will jump off after the Euro unless there is a discernable trend back to some sort of storm via Euro.

[BristowWx]

GGEM is complete and utter miss...for EVERYONE. Reasonable people will jump off after the Euro unless there is a discernable trend back to some sort of storm via Euro.

That is terrible...there is virtually no precip anywhere if I am reading it right

[thesnowsknows]

Lol apparently precociousness and age aren't necessarily directly related. Constructive criticism > posts bashing other posts. One of the reasons I have always enjoyed Wes' posts is because they don't waste time telling someone how stupid they are. Instead, he is thoughtful and educational, understanding that not everyone on this forum has a met degree. In the words of Billy Madison, "I'm here to learn, not to make out with you!"

From now on I'll try to ignore the personal attacks, but just had to get my two cents out on the matter.

Thinking more on what I said I can see how my call for less model hugging could be "ridiculous," despite many people who have supported my sentiments on this. The more I think about it I'm guessing improvements in forecasting would probably manifest in more accurate and complex algorithmic modeling rather than straying from the computers. But who knows, maybe this too is "ridiculous." Guess I'll never know until someone offers some insight.