Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 DT is only as good as the models as most mets and hobbyists are he has had one of his worst winters ever starting from his winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm guessing the 1993 superstorm didn't have 0.04 qpf for dc 5 days out hang in there everything trends NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 he has had one of his worst winters ever starting from his winter forecast He said Friday that this pattern was a midwest pattern and was hostile for east coast storms. Yesterday he forecasted a major VA event. Now no modems even show a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 The TWELVEz Jma Is still on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 He said Friday that this pattern was a midwest pattern and was hostile for east coast storms. Yesterday he forecasted a major VA event. Now no modems even show a storm Well, he seems to have been partly right. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 He said Friday that this pattern was a midwest pattern and was hostile for east coast storms. Yesterday he forecasted a major VA event. Now no modems even show a storm ****ALERT ALERT****everything i say turns to carp film at 11:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The TWELVEz Jma Is still on board! Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 06Z GFS total precip. Close but looks like most of VA would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, I'm still not worried about the MA's chances at a snowstorm on Thursday. I guess there's a better chance now that the NE might not get much. My question for everyone...if the EURO and GFS were showing a MECS at this point with DC in the jackpot 100+ hrs out wouldn't you be a little skeptical? Especially with a number of mets calling for a OV/Inland track just in the past couple of days? I'd be concerned about it trending further west. I think if this thing is still a dud by tomorrow night (monday) than we can really start to worry but right now I've still got a ton of hope. The thing about the EURO is that it did the exact same thing with the Christmas day storm. It showed like 5 awesome runs for the SNE/MA while the GFS was showing OTS. Now let's hope this doesn't turn out like the Christmas day storm for Balt/Wash but my point is that we've seen the EURO totally lose a storm in this range after showing a BECS. The GFS showed a MECS also just a couple of days ago. So let's wait until the Monday night's storm swings through before writing this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 JI and Midlo both need to be five posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 agreed 100% hpc favored the ohio valley track 2 days ago I guess there is no reason for us to post then since we are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 How come models never lose big Midwest storms...they only lose them for us. I'm so pissed right now lmao. you do realize the models have nothing to do with what actually happens i hope? its a tool. weather happens regardless. stop looking at every single damn run and you would be much happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I guess there is no reason for us to post then since we are useless. ...perhaps in a month when fishing season begins. HPC still holds out slim hopes based on experience and continuity... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 725 AM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 VALID 12Z THU FEB 10 2011 - 12Z SUN FEB 13 2011 ... DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE BUT POTENT CENTRAL US TO EAST COAST TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE/SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK RATHER THAN A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAT HOOKS UP THE EAST COAST. ECMWF WAS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TURN UNTIL ITS 00Z RUN...WHERE IT NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL AHEAD OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AS IT LIFTS VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITY OVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET IN STONE. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY...HPC PROGS ARE MAINLY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU THAT TRACKS SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THE BULK OF NEWER 00 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION MAY BETTER TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EFFECT UPON ANY SYSTEM EJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT. ... FRACASSO/SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just like the late-January storm, I'm not invested in this one, but still have some hope for it. Give it until 12Z tomorrow. No storm then, no storm late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 these godamn euro runs --my wife is so sick and tired of me promising her 12" and never delivering randy makes house calls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Three things. One, with the pieces of this puzzle still scattered to the ends of the earth, I wonder how close what actually happens later this week will actually be to any of the solutions being shown right now. Two, a southeast ridge is truly an amazing thing. They always are. If you look at the WV loop this morning, that thing looks like a block of concrete sitting in a small stream. Three, the energy progged to drop into the trough out west basically fizzles. But with the configuration that you see on the WV at this time, if it did do anything besides die, it isn't a stretch of the imagination to see it spin up a storm that could easily take a much more west path, maybe too much so. I keep thinking about yesterdays event and the fact that it ended up hundreds of miles west. I guess we'll find out soon enough, but I don't see how anybody can have ANY confidence in ANY outcome right now. I can say one thing with confidence though. If it isn't going to snow, bring on the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 when you come down to it, that idiot JB was the person to light a fire under this one as being a big deal it ain't over, but honestly, there never was anything special about this threat that JB tried to make it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 when you come down to it, that idiot JB was the person to light a fire under this one as being a big deal it ain't over, but honestly, there never was anything special about this threat that JB tried to make it For me it was the 6z run of the GFS on Friday. That looked like a dream come true. I think a good rule for me to follow is cut all shown precip amounts by 3/4, and add 10C to all 850 temps shown. Many of us here wouldn't last long if we were a Largemouth Bass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 when you come down to it, that idiot JB was the person to light a fire under this one as being a big deal it ain't over, but honestly, there never was anything special about this threat that JB tried to make it How many times has JB been correct about storm threats since Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 JI and Midlo both need to be five posted. give me some credit. i have not weenied out all year, unlike half the posters in this thread I guess there is no reason for us to post then since we are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 that the models have sucker punched us again. at the comments in the thread. Literally had to clean coffee off the monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84: Extrapolate to your hearts' content... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84: Extrapolate to your hearts' content... And the flood gates for weenie extrapolation are open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The Euro has been 24 hours behind the GFS all season. Let's see if we can get the GFS storm back and hopefully the Euro will follow. One model at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84: Extrapolate to your hearts' content... More or less what the GFS is showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 that the models have sucker punched us again. at the comments in the thread. Literally had to clean coffee off the monitor. Did you really think a model would be correct 5-6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 More or less what the GFS is showing... To be clear, I am not saying anything good or bad will come from that. But for those that like to project the NAM beyond its already less useful timeframe, have at it. While ordinarily not a great idea, frankly, it would be a nice change of pace from what this thread was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just now looking at the 0Z GGEM. How on earth can DT say that is a major snowstorm for all of VA? I had my hopes up after reading the FB post, but dayum, that's like 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just now looking at the 0Z GGEM. How on earth can DT say that is a major snowstorm for all of VA? I had my hopes up after reading the FB post, but dayum, that's like 1-2". Because he's not modelcasting? I'm not saying he's right, but to discount someone's thoughts because of what a model says is not a good counter-point. I'm still thinking that we could see a more impressive storm than what the current models show in that range. Also, to those comparing the 06z NAM and GFS... look at the 850mb temps near the end... NAM is more amped. Look at the upper-levels... NAM is slower (and also more amped here as well), both with the southern vort and with the polar vort. They're quite different in day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Did you really think a model would be correct 5-6 days out? Certainly not, one just need look back to Christmas 2010 to recall that lesson. Simply pointing out the continued perceived difficulty that certain models have had this season. The coffee on the screen was legit though, the 12" promise comment from Midlo followed by the sucks comment provided a spit take of Newman's Own on my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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