Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 it all has to do with the big PV over canada 12 z was elongated looking, 0z has a southern pivot that digs deeper down into the southern S/W --this shape will change every run, even though it dives a little deeper their is no low over the lakes to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Actually it started 3 days ago when a lot of the models had the storm cutting inland, then as the guidance started to amplify the tuesday trough more and more, they have backed off of the THursday trough. How come models never lose big Midwest storms...they only lose them for us. I'm so pissed right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Everyone kept saying to ignore the Gfs...it's right where we want it...bs...I want the Gfs to show heavy snow over me every run. I never felt comfortable with it's supressed solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 How come models never lose big Midwest storms...they only lose them for us. I'm so pissed right now these godamn euro runs --my wife is so sick and tired of me promising her 12" and never delivering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This winter is miserable. Coldest in a while, and lots of lots of possible storms to track, but in the end -- NOTHING. We probably could have gotten more snow if it was 50 to 60 for most of December and January. to be fair though, only once this winter did I see a setup where I liked the depth of the trough, the spacing to amplify, and the location of the trough. THat one time we did actually get something to produce for us. All the other times, there was a threat yes, but it was a very low level threat because there was always something wrong. The trough axis was off because the ridge was too far east for the December event. The depth of the trough was just not enough for the early January events. The track of the vort was way to our north and west with the last 2 storms. There was always a glaring issue, some of them looked nice on the surface for a few runs of a model but there was always a reason to doubt it. We have had a ton of long shot chances and none worked out, its annoying but its not like we had good setups over and over and they all fell apart. We had marginal setups that just didnt work out. The only time we had a legitimately good setup we got snow. Its just a shame that the timing sucked with that event and it occurred between cold shots, or else we might have maxed out and had a 20" plus HECS from that one given the upper level setup and track. We might just have to settle for what we got. THere is a shot of something Tuesday I think, I think models might still be coming around on that one. I also think we have a long shot at something in March this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sucks for her these godamn euro runs --my wife is so sick and tired of me promising her 12" and never delivering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 How come models never lose big Midwest storms...they only lose them for us. I'm so pissed right now they lose storms for the midwest all the time, you just dont notice because it doesn't affect you. Chicago blizzards become Green Bay blizzards or Ohio blizzards all the time. Same with Ohio blizzards turning into Chicago blizzards. Its not just you believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 There is really no reason to have mets anymore. The models rule and as the models flip so will the mets. Basically the models dictate what the mets will forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's over Dude I'm serious are you bipolar? Your mood swings with every model. Watch the 12z runs shift it back and you will be calling it the storm of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sucks for her poor choice of words.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sucks for her i went from walking out my front door to balls deep in snow now i am going to have to sit indian style to accomplish this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dude I'm serious are you bipolar? Your mood swings with every model. Watch the 12z runs shift it back and you will be calling it the storm of the century. I agree with Ji, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dude I'm serious are you bipolar? Your mood swings with every model. Watch the 12z runs shift it back and you will be calling it the storm of the century. When models show me snow..I'll get excited again. Tonight...pure disaster and nothing will sway me otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 There is really no reason to have mets anymore. The models rule and as the models flip so will the mets. Basically the models dictate what the mets will forecast agreed 100% hpc favored the ohio valley track 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 When models show me snow..I'll get excited again. Tonight...pure disaster and nothing will sway me otherwise And just one year ago, you were on your way to getting 34" of snow. You were ecstatic on the night of Snowmageddon. Now turn to today and the latest 0z runs, and what a difference a year makes. You thought you would get a KU storm and now the chance of that has crashed and burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dude I'm serious are you bipolar? Your mood swings with every model. Watch the 12z runs shift it back and you will be calling it the storm of the century. He's not bipolar, but the models are. From a foot to nothing in 12 hours? That has been part of our problem this year. It's been almost impossible to get any sort of consistency. When it's existed - such as the 3 days leading up to Jan. 26 - we got our snow. When it's been one model showing one thing and another a different solution, or one model flip flopping back and forth for days, we have ended up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 agreed 100% hpc favored the ohio valley track 2 days ago LC is going for inland track...DT has flipped twice already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 agreed 100% hpc favored the ohio valley track 2 days ago LC favored an OV track as of yesterday (and probably still does). DT was strongly favoring an OV/midwest track even as the Euro shifted east. The he seemed to jump on the VA snowstorm bandwagon over the last 24 hours. He was last seen bashing the GFS for continuing to show an OTS/crushed scenario. Now that the Euro shows the same, which way will he flop now? And JB, well...... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC is going for inland track...DT has flipped twice already.. inland where bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC favored an OV track as of yesterday (and probably still does). DT was strongly favoring an OV/midwest track even as the Euro shifted east. The he seemed to jump on the VA snowstorm bandwagon over the last 24 hours. He was last seen bashing the GFS for continuing to show an OTS/crushed scenario. Now that the Euro shows the same, which way will he flop now?And JB, well...... MDstorm Since Midlo is not getting his 12" i am guessing there will not be much flopping . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 we are cooked until? --the end of feb? by then it's just not the same Maybe one last chance in early march but we have to go through a blowtorch first and no guarantee that warm will give way to a winter pattern. Avg high is near 50 in early march. Winter is about done for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 we are cooked until? --the end of feb? by then it's just not the same Yes, March snows generally suck - especially if you live near I-95 - except maybe once every decade. If it happens during the day, it rarely even sticks on the roads or sidewalks. Plus, What good is there is rooting for an overnight snowfall that will surely melt in a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only superstorm Jb will see this week is historic subscription cancellations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only superstorm Jb will see this week is historic subscription cancellations When you actually cancel then i will know he is in real trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only superstorm Jb will see this week is historic subscription cancellations DT too. I don't even understand how his followers take him seriously anymore. You add his attitude + his flip flopping + his high bust rate = a waist of Facebook bandwith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only superstorm Jb will see this week is historic subscription cancellations In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 DT too. I don't even understand how his followers take him seriously anymore. You add his attitude + his flip flopping + his high bust rate = a waist of Facebook bandwith. DT is only as good as the models as most mets and hobbyists are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 well atleast we cool down to +4 at hour 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm guessing the 1993 superstorm didn't have 0.04 qpf for dc 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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