MD Snow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 two panels in the green on the gfs. :o .05???? That was actually the best run of either the NAM or GFS in like 3 days...still horrible for us...but i'm sure the southeast thread is loving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yes, and I'd almost bet that if we see a below average pattern for temps that, just to pour salt in the wounds, we'll be above average precip wise as a way to say "see, look what you could have had". Sets the stage for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sets the stage for next winter. in what way???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 anyone have the dca qpf on the gfs? this is taking way too long to update: http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KDCA.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 anyone have the dca qpf on the gfs? this is taking way too long to update: http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KDCA.txt .05 relax...your not really getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 .05 relax...your not really getting snow i dunno, .05" could be an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 .05 relax...your not really getting snow actually increased by .01 now .06 FWIW http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Updated forecast: The precipitation shield did fill in a little bit from DC and points south on the models, but not to the degree I thought they were going to. I made some adjustments to the forecasts because of that, bringing the 1-2" line and the 2-4" contour over the Apps. further south. I brought the 1-2" contour up north in southeastern NC due to the warmer temperatures. It will be hard to tell how much the DC area gets due to snow sublimation in the lower levels early on, but I could see DC/MoCo getting a dusting to 1/4", with a small chance of going higher. Areas north of MoCo up towards Frederick and Baltimore could see a dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Justin Berk's Post: About that snow storm.... There already is a surprise. The most aggressive model- the NAM- is shown here compared to the actual surface map. Last night's forecast for this morning did not have the snow in Arkansas yet according to a tweet from The Weather Channel- there is 18"-20" snow on the ground now!!! Our morning anchor Charles ...Crowson who is from AR, had reports of at least 8"-10". Hmmmmm... The northern push has been in my forecast all week, but our air is so dry that even a 100 shift north would have to battle the arctic air for snow to actually reach the ground. But, I had mentioned watching this storm's forward speed. If it can scoot farther east before the arctic air mass can shove it farther south, then all bets are off. That means that the starting point is farther north, it is move developed, and the result could be a surprise. I am not saying anything certain yet... there still is not much support for more than flurries or light snow near and south of Baltimore. However, stand by... This still is worth very close attention and I will share my thoughts this afternoon after I can see how it is developing. If anything were to happen, it would be between midnight and daybreak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Justin Berk's Post: 'Tis true that the precip. is coming in faster than progged, but the northern extent of the shield is about where it should be. I've been worried about getting a northern trend as well... we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 'Tis true that the precip. is coming in faster than progged, but the northern extent of the shield is about where it should be. I've been worried about getting a northern trend as well... we shall see. Ellinwood is about to call another Jan 00 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ellinwood is about to call another Jan 00 redux. If anything I would just say "go back to my first call" I'm not too worried about the nowcast verifications at this point, but I may be once the radar starts filling in around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The fact is, there are only 50 users reading this topic. If a snowstorm was actually coming, we'd have 250 or more. So if the unthinkable happens and we get 2 inches or more out of this, it won't just be regular people shocked and stuck on the road, it'll be some AmericanWX users as well... P.S. OT, but can someone explain to me why I am 5 PPD? I don't have too much a weenie or trolling history by any means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The fact is, there are only 50 users reading this topic. If a snowstorm was actually coming, we'd have 250 or more. So if the unthinkable happens and we get 2 inches or more out of this, it won't just be regular people shocked and stuck on the road, it'll be some AmericanWX users as well... P.S. OT, but can someone explain to me why I am 5 PPD? I don't have too much a weenie or trolling history by any means... Thanks for the clarification on the users .... hint... hint... and not that it matters all that much but I went from my forecast being cloudy when i woke up this morning to a chance of flurries mid morning to now a 30% of snow tonight as of 12:00pm http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Annapolis&state=MD&site=LWX&textField1=39.0221&textField2=-76.4501 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think I may already know the answer but do the models take into account the lost precip while moistening up the column? If not then .03 may not even reach the ground. I remember a met saying that the models do account for that. I wouldn't mind at least seeing flakes fall before the warm up. It's looking like the odds are in favor of at least DC metro seeing some snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The fact is, there are only 50 users reading this topic. If a snowstorm was actually coming, we'd have 250 or more. So if the unthinkable happens and we get 2 inches or more out of this, it won't just be regular people shocked and stuck on the road, it'll be some AmericanWX users as well... P.S. OT, but can someone explain to me why I am 5 PPD? I don't have too much a weenie or trolling history by any means... Please message a mod or admin for this question to be answered. A general member isn't going to have a solid answer for you. It could have been for a "clutter" post during storm mode. Even one post in those situations can get you limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think I may already know the answer but do the models take into account the lost precip while moistening up the column? If not then .03 may not even reach the ground. I remember a met saying that the models do account for that. I wouldn't mind at least seeing flakes fall before the warm up. It's looking like the odds are in favor of at least DC metro seeing some snow fall. they show what should hit the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 they show what should hit the ground Tx. W/ ratios .03 = 1/2 inch. If the trend keeps pushing north then we could end up with .06. Lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 For dc a nice safe call would be a dusting to a half inch with mabe a 10% chance of an inch. I'm not sure what the ratios would be. Cold is good but flake size and type is also important and I'm not sure the temps where the snow is forming favor dendrites. Most of the uvv on the NAM is pretty high up and therefore is out of the dendrite range more into plates and columns, the former tend to be a little denser than dendrites and the latter tend to be small flakes. The uvv also is pretty weak which is another minus for flake size. I guess I'm saying I doubt the ratios will be 20-1 but am not sure I've seen the combo of uvv and temps that the vertical profiles are showing so I could be flat out wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I don't get too worked up over the weather because it's and a waste of energy but just a little more digginess and this could have easily been a 3-5" for us. It is getting tiresome with the "close but no snowgar" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 the euro is pretty ugly.. drier than it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 euro reduced our precip. .01 for IAD and DCA. .03 for RIC only .28 for Hatterras while GFS and NAM have way more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 euro reduced our precip. .01 for IAD and DCA. .03 for RIC only .28 for Hatterras while GFS and NAM have way more Throw it out...Dr. No is now Dr. don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 euro reduced our precip. .01 for IAD and DCA. .03 for RIC only .28 for Hatterras while GFS and NAM have way more .01 could be 1" if we get really good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 .01 could be 1" if we get really good ratios. 100 - 1 is probably pushin it. 90-1 seems more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 euro reduced our precip. .01 for IAD and DCA. .03 for RIC only .28 for Hatterras while GFS and NAM have way more For 0.01 I don't think the Euro is any better than the GFS or NAM. It has a low bias while they ave a high bias so the truth my lie in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 bottom line is if its .01 or 0.05...who cares. We are fail and fooked either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The NW TREND is alive! We're upgraded to chance of a flurry now. Big Whoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 bottom line is if its .01 or 0.05...who cares. We are fail and fooked either way Norfolk is going to end up with more snow than Leesburg this year. So is Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 mwhaa, haaa, haaa does it ever make it back south this year? frankly, I hope not look at those +15C 850 temps where its snowing today http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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