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Fail and Fooked


Ji

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Okay, well given that this storm has gone from a bomb to nothing...i'm actually enjoying watching it's development...I'm not expecting more than 1 flurry so anything more than that is a bonus...i'm really enjoying the nowcasting and meteorology. I know there really hasn't been any massive shifts or anything but for instance the RUC has been showing this thing at 500 digging more than most models in the short range and it's interesting to see the slight improvements at 500 each run of the NAM and GFS today. Again not expecting much but will be interested to see if there is any further shift north with the flurries tonight.

Yeah it's the 18 hr ruc (horrible) but if this actually verified it would be interesting...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/from_jet/ruc7t/full/2011020820/cref_sfc_f24.png

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Interesting and cautionary disco from Wakefield:

MODELS HAVE GNLY TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE

MSTR FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM. ALWAYS A CONCERN WHEN SUCH

ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH INTO THE SCNTRL US AND GULF OF

MEXICO REGION. AT THIS TIME...MID LVL/500 MB PATTERN STILL DOES

NOT APPEAR TO BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE PHASING OF THE NRN

AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL INHIBIT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION

OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INSTEAD

LEADING TO A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DOES NOT DEEPEN

SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL IT REACHES WELL OFF THE NC COAST AFTER 12Z

THU. STILL...THE TRENDS ARE TROUBLING AND HAVE RAISED A WINTER

STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF NE NC. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A PERIOD OF FAIRLY

STRONG MID-UPR LVL Q-VECTOR FORCING COINCIDING WITH LOW- MID LVL

FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT UP THROUGH THE -15 TO -20C LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT

06-13Z THU. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TIME OF MOST CONCERN. AS THIS

SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER...AND WITH INITIALLY VERY DRY COLD AIR WED

EVENING...SOME OF THE INITIAL QPF WILL TEND TO BE WASTED INTO

COLUMN MOISTENING. THUS...THERE WILL TEND TO BE SHARP CUTOFF IN

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE NW/DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW

AMTS SHOULD GNLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING FROM N AND W OF

RICHMOND...TO A SLIVER OF 1-2 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND

2-3"/UP TO 4" DOWN ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. DID NOT INCLUDE

HAMPTON ROADS IN THE WATCH DUE TO A FAIRLY SMALL CHC FOR WRNG

CRITERIA SNOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE

AN ADSY FOR SOME OF FAR SE VA/HAMPTON ROADS...ESPECIALLY AS THE

TIMING COINCIDES WITH THE THU AM RUSH HOUR.

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Maybe this could turn out to be one of those surprise storms that keeps trending back to its original potential of a week ago and for some inexplicable reason hugs the coast.

Nope, it is way too sheared out for that to happen. You may get lucky though with some flurries.

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