WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I just hope I remember to ignore the next Eurostorm. To be fair the GFS had it too but it bailed early and never looked back. If we counted all the snow the Euro gave us at Day 7 and the HiRes WRFs gave us in Days 1-2, we'd be close to last year's snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 If we counted all the snow the Euro gave us at Day 7 and the HiRes WRFs gave us in Days 1-2, we'd be close to last year's snow totals. So I guess it's safe to say that we've "virtually" had the same amount of snow as last year. Maybe it's just me but it doesn't quite feel the same.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 3 posts in 10 hours man what a season long goose chase we have been on . looks like the nam gives me an inch lol. the 0z euro was a wall to wall disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yup, it's going to get REAL quiet around here for the next 10+ days. 45 - 55 and sunny with occasional chances of rain doesn't make good conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yup, it's going to get REAL quiet around here for the next 10+ days. 45 - 55 and sunny with occasional chances of rain doesn't make good conversation. I guess that part is good, because as soon as temps go back down to "snow" levels, we'll get suckered in again. Here's to no more winter threats until next year. Also, what's up with all the "Pac Man" radars and precip patterns this past week. Look at the NAM sim radar at 42 hours, and think back to yesterdays radar. What happened to the precip blobs, and comma shapes? This has been one weird a** winter. It could have been so much better, but we have had as close to the worst luck as I can remember. It could have been much worse too, because we at least were able to scratch out a couple of snows, and have had snow cover a good portion of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I have no hope of this making a difference but just for the meteorological sake, 12z gfs looks better at 500 and at surface through 30 hrs Well this gives me atleast a little hope of seeing a flurry...for the GFS that was a big change given it's past like 10 runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I have no hope of this making a difference but just for the meteorological sake, 12z gfs looks better at 500 and at surface through 30 hrs That's because it's finally starting to catch up to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That's because it's finally starting to catch up to the NAM And how much does the NAM give us? The big story will be the snow on the outerbanks for the thrid time this year. Hatteras may end up with more saeasonal snow than we have> I think they've had around 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 And how much does the NAM give us? The big story will be the snow on the outerbanks for the thrid time this year. Hatteras may end up with more saeasonal snow than we have> I think they've had around 6". Don't think they're going to get any...given it being close to mid feb and marginal temps http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_048s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Don't think they're going to get any...given it being close to mid feb and marginal temps http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_048s.gif You're right, I hadn't looked at the surface temps which this time of year is a big mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So much for JB's 50-60's Monday and Tuesday of next week. It just doesn't seem to really want to torch... 40-45 looks more reasonable next week...and yet another week (next week) of cold air goes to waste... Just saw a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Noticed that my daffodil stems have started to sprout from the ground. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Maybe the storm off the se coast on Sat. will blossom like your daffodils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So much for JB's 50-60's Monday and Tuesday of next week. It just doesn't seem to really want to torch... 40-45 looks more reasonable next week...and yet another week (next week) of cold air goes to waste... Just saw a flurry I think that the temps will be pretty normal Monday and Tuesday after a warmer than normal sunday. Temps could be pretty warm by the end of the week. The pattern is going south as the heights go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Carolinewx, I've cautioned about using the GEFS precipitation forecasts when you get inside of 72 hrs as the low resolution srpeads the precipitation out allowing the precipitation to come north farther than you'd expect based on the suppressed surface low track that the members are showing. You'd be wiser to look at the 09Z SREF members or when they come out the 15Z sref. The 09Z were quite suppressed. We still have a chance at a dusting but I'd be surprised if we got more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Carolinewx, I've cautioned about using the GEFS precipitation forecasts when you get inside of 72 hrs as the low resolution srpeads the precipitation out allowing the precipitation to come north farther than you'd expect based on the suppressed surface low track that the members are showing. You'd be wiser to look at the 09Z SREF members or when they come out the 15Z sref. The 09Z were quite suppressed. We still have a chance at a dusting but I'd be surprised if we got more than that. Can someone post the 9z sref members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Can someone post the 9z sref members? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x24_057s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg GGEM is a little wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z euro gives RIC ~0.08 orf 0.15 va beach 0.25 roa lyh ~0.08 overall 500 digs a little deeper storm has a juicer than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Carolinewx, I've cautioned about using the GEFS precipitation forecasts when you get inside of 72 hrs as the low resolution srpeads the precipitation out allowing the precipitation to come north farther than you'd expect based on the suppressed surface low track that the members are showing. You'd be wiser to look at the 09Z SREF members or when they come out the 15Z sref. The 09Z were quite suppressed. We still have a chance at a dusting but I'd be surprised if we got more than that. I agree with you as I have seen the members way off in the close range too...It's still interesting that 7 of the 10 members bring the .1" to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z euro gives RIC ~0.08 orf 0.15 va beach 0.25 roa lyh ~0.08 overall 500 digs a little deeper storm has a juicer than 0z Any for DCA? I'm guessing not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Any for DCA? I'm guessing not. not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 not even close Good as Jason posted a long quote as a short article. I keep the possibility of flurries or a dusting alive but that's about it. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/02/no_more_than_flurries_likely_t.html#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 not even close not true. IAD went from 0.0 to 0.2 qpf DCA 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 one more massive shift and we have a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 not true. IAD went from 0.0 to 0.2 qpf DCA 0.3 You mean 0.03 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 one more massive shift and we have a snowstorm! I really wouldn't call this a massive shift but it was a nice little move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 You mean 0.03 I think. yes sorry..definitely not .3 0.03 for DCA 0.02 for IAD yesterday it was 0.00 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 this snowstorm had a chance to be great...probably our best and coldest one of the season. What another waste. This winter just sucks. Any thoughts about next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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