Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well then it's a good thing that the GFS QPF is probably wrong. Follow the NAM i really hope i get .02" of precip instead of .00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i really hope i get .02" of precip instead of .00" you deserve it for your birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i really hope i get .02" of precip instead of .00" thread title change to the ELLINWOODY storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Even if we could get .1-.25 coming through in a glorified cold front we'd get good ratio's. Probably be 2"-4" as long as the majority didn't fall between 12-3PM. Link to individual GEFS members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 here ya go ellinwood ggem is joining the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Keep praying folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Keep praying folks! And if it does not snow, you were not praying hard enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If my analogs are correct, we could expect to see the AO/NAO block return. This would help out quite a bit. Also, could we at least get the dates of the "FAIL" in the topic of the thead? Well that would be the icing on the cake of this winter. -NAO just in time to spoil a nice warm spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Every member is more amplified than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 lol at the ens most show ric with 0.25 [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 don't look now but the euro is amped up from 0z not much but the precip is already further north and heights are a hair higher in the east don't know if it will mean much but im just the messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 don't look now but the euro is amped up from 0z not much but the precip is already further north and heights are a hair higher in the east don't know if it will mean much but im just the messenger what's it matter we've lost the JMA today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 precip is well over 100 miles north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ric went from nada to 0.10 va beach 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 what's it matter we've lost the JMA today It wouldnt take much for Richmond to get a 2-4" snow out of this. We need a lot more help up here. I do think we get one more period where we will have a chance from about Feb 27th to March 15th. It looks like it will be a repeat of the -NAO -PNA pattern from December but in March the same pattern could have different results when wavelengths are shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ric went from nada to 0.10 va beach 0.25 Trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Trend? nam, ggem, gfsens, euro all give ric some snow, storm still several days away i might have to hop on the ellinwood bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It wouldnt take much for Richmond to get a 2-4" snow out of this. We need a lot more help up here. I do think we get one more period where we will have a chance from about Feb 27th to March 15th. It looks like it will be a repeat of the -NAO -PNA pattern from December but in March the same pattern could have different results when wavelengths are shorter. I actually agree the pattern will improve with the -NAO/-AO, but snow for us during that time of the year is undeniably tough and, at least imho, usually too little too late unless its a rare monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 nam, ggem, gfsens, euro all give ric some snow, storm still several days away i might have to hop on the ellinwood bus Map's coming tonight (probably around 5pm-6pm)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The amazing thing about the 12 z GFS is the lack of any appreciable threats in the 384 hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Map's coming tonight (probably around 5pm-6pm)! don't jack pot me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 120 va beach could get an inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 120 va beach could get an inch or 2 In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history. not sure what to do with the 23 degrees coming should i leave my sinks dripping? TABULAR STATE FORECAST FOR VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EST MON FEB 7 2011 ROWS INCLUDE... DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NIGHTTIME 6PM-6AM/DAYTIME 6AM-6PM - INDICATES TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO MM INDICATES MISSING DATA FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST TODAY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN FEB 07 FEB 08 FEB 09 FEB 10 FEB 11 FEB 12 FEB 13 RICHMOND PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY MOCLDY SUNNY SUNNY SUNNY /56 36/48 23/42 28/35 25/42 26/47 26/54 /10 40/10 10/00 30/30 20/10 10/10 10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 DT is EURO says that VA gets no snow other than southeast VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 lol at the ens most show ric with 0.25 [ 7 of those give DC/Annapolis close to .1". Everyone will think I'm crazy but with the EURO coming in a little more amped and all the GEFS members coming in a lot more amped than the OP not to mention the NAM...I think our chances at at least seeing some snow might be okay...which is an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I know it's a long shot for up here in Wash especially Balt but remember the Thundersnow event? The models didn't have that solution pegged until about 72-84 hours out. That's the frame we are getting into now. And furthermore, that storm ended up Pounding the northeast coast without much guidance supporting that even leading up to the event. I wouldn't be completely surprised if started seeing a little more amped solutions riding into this event. I think Richmond stands a really good shot at 2-3 inches if not more if things start riding more towards what has been unfolding today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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