Dalfy Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sucks. 0z Precip for Southeast VA/ Norfolk THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.02 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.06 RIC: .02 Thanks! Im not surprised though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 new nam is west with the low... but the vort is still sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 new nam is west with the low... but the vort is still sheared. Even though it is sheared... it is still stronger than any other guidance with the vort.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 06Z GFS has a weak wave off the Carolina coast moving OTS @ 78. Has a follow up low form in the same location a little over a day later but that goes OTS as well. Really no precip to speak of with either one except for around the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The difference in how the NAM and GFS are handling the storm as it moves over the Southeast is quite striking... still leaning on the NAM, which has support from the 00z Euro. 1" of snow in BHM/ATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not sure if this is 0z GFS ensembles or 6z but there are three that are actually somewhat of a hit for us with the rest showing a larger storm than the GFS. Most of them get precip up through VA and into southern MD too. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f108.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not sure if this is 0z GFS ensembles or 6z but there are two that are actually somewhat of a hit for us with the rest showing a larger storm than the GFS. http://www.meteo.psu...S_12z/f108.html Believe that's yesterday 12Z. Edit: 06Z members are pretty blah precip wise except for maybe southeast VA and the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Believe that's yesterday 12Z. Well could somebody post the 6z ensembles please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well could somebody post the 6z ensembles please? total precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zp72f114.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 total precip http://raleighwx.ame...06zp72f114.html or http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wow - I really thought this would be the storm to turn it all around for us this winter. But then the polar vortex decide to rage on us. It was fun tracking snowstorms this year. Can't wait to do it all over again next year. Hopefully a nino winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wow - I really thought this would be the storm to turn it all around for us this winter. But then the polar vortex decide to rage on us. It was fun tracking snowstorms this year. Can't wait to do it all over again next year. Hopefully a nino winter. Where's the memo that said we're done after Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Where's the memo that said we're done after Thursday? Ha - just my opinion. Maybe we get some sloppy wet stuff in march, but it's time to enjoy the next few weeks of spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Where's the memo that said we're done after Thursday? I think most think winter is going toend cause a pattern change is coming ans a warm up too. And I think most are tirwd of waiting fkr noshows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Ha - just my opinion. Maybe we get some sloppy wet stuff in march, but it's time to enjoy the next few weeks of spring weather. True that, if it's that long. I'll take 50s and sunny. I think most think winter is going toend cause a pattern change is coming ans a warm up too. And I think most are tirwd of waiting fkr noshows Looks like you didn't get enough sleep last night The warm up is probably more temporary than anything looking at recent forecasts, and many are calling for a cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Where's the memo that said we're done after Thursday? Problem is that we do start to fight climo after mid-Feb, and that is what we are looking at since the next 10 days don't look that great. In the past 60 years, in the post-Feb16th period there have been 7 years with 10"+ of snowfall. During that same timeframe there have been 14 periods with no measurable snowfall, and 33/60 have had 3" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Problem is that we do start to fight climo after mid-Feb, and that is what we are looking at since the next 10 days don't look that great. In the past 60 years, in the post-Feb16th period there have been 7 years with 10"+ of snowfall. During that same timeframe there have been 14 periods with no measurable snowfall, and 33/60 have had 3" or less. I'm aware of the odds against another storm, but a late storm can not and should not be ruled out. People give up way too easily around here, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm aware of the odds against another storm, but a late storm can not and should not be ruled out. People give up way too easily around here, good or bad. it can happen for sure and nina probably gives it an extra boost at least looking at the small list of ninas. but we'll need a good bit of help on multiple levels. at least it's still quite light at 6p now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Where's the memo that said we're done after Thursday? It's the typical weenie reverse psychology line.. really gets going this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 it can happen for sure and nina probably gives it an extra boost at least looking at the small list of ninas. but we'll need a good bit of help on multiple levels. at least it's still quite light at 6p now! If my analogs are correct, we could expect to see the AO/NAO block return. This would help out quite a bit. Also, could we at least get the dates of the "FAIL" in the topic of the thead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Go south, young man .... 2/7, 3:38am: DAY 3... ..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY SRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS/TN VLYS THIS PERIOD. AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE ADV AND DEEP FGEN FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY ROLES IN THE PRODUCTION OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NERN TX/AR/NRN LA/NRN MS/WRN TN WHERE A SLGT TO MDT RISK OF 4-INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN INDICATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If my analogs are correct, we could expect to see the AO/NAO block return. This would help out quite a bit. Also, could we at least get the dates of the "FAIL" in the topic of the thead? 12/1- 2/7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 12/1- 2/7? 1997-2011 with the exception of 02-03 and 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 gfs Atleast the snowhole is bigger than just over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If my analogs are correct, we could expect to see the AO/NAO block return. This would help out quite a bit. I think many of us are thinking the same. We move to a warmer / zonal pattern starting this coming weekend and maybe have a 8-10 run of avg to abv avg temps? Then all hopes will be on the -ao/-nao with blocking moving back in for a 10 day period. Someone posted some stats about Feb 16th+ snow in DC. Over the last 60 years, 13 years have had 3+" of snow during this period. Of those 13, I wonder how many came on the heels of a mod to strong nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Atleast the snowhole is bigger than just over us. GFS seems pretty locked in right now...it's been showing this for 5+ runs. So depressing. Have you looked at the radar today? So depressing. Have you looked at the long range? So depressing. This winter? So depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL. Hilarious that "Jack Frost" and "Winter Weather Lover" are ready for the spring on February Freaking 6th. It took me a minute to get this, but you're right, that is kind of funny with those two user names. I'm not really ready for spring, but if spring time temps come along, it will at least keep me from chasing futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS seems pretty locked in right now...it's been showing this for 5+ runs. So depressing. Have you looked at the radar today? So depressing. Have you looked at the long range? So depressing. This winter? So depressing. yea things don't look good,and by the time we get back to a better pattern it's just not the same watching it snow and melt on contact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS seems pretty locked in right now...it's been showing this for 5+ runs. So depressing. Have you looked at the radar today? So depressing. Have you looked at the long range? So depressing. This winter? So depressing. Well then it's a good thing that the GFS QPF is probably wrong. Follow the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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