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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Fall 2011


JoMo

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NAM still sticking to its general idea for sure, I guess it isnt finished with that crack pipe. On to the GFS. Which I bet will stick pretty close to its story also.

Through 33, NAM isn't looking that much different from it's 18z run. A little stronger with 700 MB winds over OK.

Looks like a shift south though.

Less QPF:

NAM_221_2011020800_F48_PCPIN_48_HR.png

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Impressive upright instability!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF AN INTENSE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE
DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.

00Z NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN BOTH SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS NOT SO MUCH THE MODEL SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD REGION OF UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD THIS
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LIKELY
WITH LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE TYPE OF DETAILS WILL FLUCTUATE IN PLACEMENT AND LIKELY NOT
BE TOTALLY DEFINED UNTIL EVENT STARTS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL NOT ALTER SNOWFALL FORECASTS AS MUCH MORE
DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

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Impressive upright instability!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF AN INTENSE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE
DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.

00Z NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN BOTH SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS NOT SO MUCH THE MODEL SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD REGION OF UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD THIS
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LIKELY
WITH LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE TYPE OF DETAILS WILL FLUCTUATE IN PLACEMENT AND LIKELY NOT
BE TOTALLY DEFINED UNTIL EVENT STARTS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL NOT ALTER SNOWFALL FORECASTS AS MUCH MORE
DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

love it!!!!!!!!!thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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NAM still sticking to its general idea for sure, I guess it isnt finished with that crack pipe. On to the GFS. Which I bet will stick pretty close to its story also.

Yep, looks like the GFS is sticking to its previous runs as well. Little drier up here though.

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I'm here lol...it's just that there's not too much to talk about w/ this one. I know it won't be as impressive for NE OK, but for here I'm essentially expecting the same impact, 8 days later. Doubt I'm pulling an all nighter for this one, lol.

But I'll probably post more starting tomorrow after my classes are done (for the week? :whistle: ) ...not like I'm gonna have much else to do hahaha

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I'm here lol...it's just that there's not too much to talk about w/ this one. I know it won't be as impressive for NE OK, but for here I'm essentially expecting the same impact, 8 days later. Doubt I'm pulling an all nighter for this one, lol.

But I'll probably post more starting tomorrow after my classes are done (for the week? :whistle: ) ...not like I'm gonna have much else to do hahaha

It does look impressive down there where you are no matter what model verifies.

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I'm here lol...it's just that there's not too much to talk about w/ this one. I know it won't be as impressive for NE OK, but for here I'm essentially expecting the same impact, 8 days later. Doubt I'm pulling an all nighter for this one, lol.

But I'll probably post more starting tomorrow after my classes are done (for the week? :whistle: ) ...not like I'm gonna have much else to do hahaha

boomer theres always something to say.....btw the guy that does the radio show for the sooners gary o mealley hes my cousin.

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The latest TSA discussion is actually the kind that makes me re-read it and look at every word. Sounds like they see things that are causing them to lean more in the NAM camp, particularly as they alluded to the system "potent" and noted the lightning strikes. AS I recall the higher resolution of the NAM makes its reliability a quite a bit better than those H72 Hail Marys it has thrown out there. I am not sure why they would continue to use a model, if it could be empirically demonstrated it is "garbage."

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The latest TSA discussion is actually the kind that makes me re-read it and look at every word. Sounds like they see things that are causing them to lean more in the NAM camp, particularly as they alluded to the system "potent" and noted the lightning strikes. AS I recall the higher resolution of the NAM makes its reliability a quite a bit better than those H72 Hail Marys it has thrown out there. I am not sure why they would continue to use a model, if it could be empirically demonstrated it is "garbage."

It's possible it's right, but based on previous experience with the NAM, it's very hit and miss. Maybe the possible convective instability it is show is effecting it's forecast via convective feedback?

However, it is sticking to it's solution and the GFS is sticking to it's solution.

The RGEM has a lot of precip over OK into W Ark. The GGEM is looking a lot like the GFS.

Euro starts in 30 mins or so.

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ski_cen_440x297.jpg2-Day Forecast Snowfall Totals

Cities such as Denver, Colorado Springs, Santa Fe, Albuquerque, North Platte, Garden City, Wichita, Amarillo, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Topeka and Kansas City will all see a decent snowfall out of this storm system.

It's not out of the question that cities such as Oklahoma City and Tulsa may receive even more snow than the current forecast. A foot or more of snow is not out of the question for both of those cities.

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