JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If the 18z OP GFS is right.. I will get 2-3 at best.. Tulsa around 3-5 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Tulsa closed tuesday. waiting on the call for jenks bixby closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 If the 18z OP GFS is right.. I will get 2-3 at best.. Tulsa around 3-5 at best. Ratios will be higher due to Arctic air. So you may want to do 15:1 or 18:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i want no less than 8 per the diagram above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks to me TSA maybe going more with the GFS, by the looks of their snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 so are you guys using this thread for the big winter storm coming or is there a seprate storm/obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That would be really high ratios for this part of the country. But 18:1 is a bit high for sure I would think. 12-15:1 maybe... Ratios will be higher due to Arctic air. So you may want to do 15:1 or 18:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 so are you guys using this thread for the big winter storm coming or is there a seprate storm/obs thread? big winter storm? after the blizzard, this is some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 big winter storm? after the blizzard, this is some light snow. someone in OK is going to get 12". I was gonna make a storm thread for it but its up to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 FWIW..The 18z RGEM is showing a good hit for eastern ok/western Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 That would be really high ratios for this part of the country. But 18:1 is a bit high for sure I would think. 12-15:1 maybe... I don't know, I think they may get pretty high considering the cold air involved. 700 MB temps between -10 and -15. 500 MB temps between -20 and -25 and colder. Prime snow growth. I wish the SPC SREF was working as they output some good graphics, although it would probably be contaminated by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 so are you guys using this thread for the big winter storm coming or is there a seprate storm/obs thread? I think a storm/obs thread is warranted. We sound pretty spoiled down here. This type of storm would be generating more buzz if it weren't for the blizzard last week. A wide swath of 6"+ snows is not a common occurrence down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 big winter storm? after the blizzard, this is some light snow. no kidding this is just a baby storm compared to that beast! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 TSA multi media briefing isnt working wasent showing the graphics now its not working at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wierdo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I saw model forecasts of 15:1 or better over the last couple of days. And SREF is indeed NAM 'contaminated'. I don't think the GFS has a good handle on this one at all, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't think the GFS has a good handle on this one at all, though. what makes you say that? It's been pretty consistent every run. 00z runs should have it completely sampled (except maybe that bit hanging off the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z Kuchera: NAM GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The GFS can bite me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Comparing the 18z NAM/GFS. The NAM generally thinks the system will be stronger. 700 MB SW winds of 60 kts over central OK at hour 42. The GFS has 700 MB winds of 30-35kts over N TX at same time. The NAM also has a closed 850 MB low with associated stronger winds. This produces a lot more lift over the front and more snow. Joplinmet says he wouldn't be surprised if this system takes a jaunt to the north. Considering the last two systems came in farther north, I wouldn't be shocked either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 HPC's probabilities on heaviest snow: Greater than 4" Greater than 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, somebody is wrong because the NWS is already giving 6-12'' in Wichita, and that map is only giving them a 10% chance of more than 4 inches..so someone is wrong...I think that map is a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 gosh that is so far southwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, somebody is wrong because the NWS is already giving 6-12'' in Wichita, and that map is only giving them a 10% chance of more than 4 inches..so someone is wrong...I think that map is a little low. 4-6" Wichita. *SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 My mistake..it wasn't the NWS, it was the Weather Channel. Why did the Weather Channel have them 6-12''?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 My mistake..it wasn't the NWS, it was the Weather Channel. Why did the Weather Channel have them 6-12''?? Because The Weather Channel is about as accurate at forecasting as my pet parakeet (and I don't even have a pet parakeet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ya the 00z models will be interesting. I don't if I by the quick exit and southern track to the GFS. I am going lower amounts for now with mainly 3-6" and 2-4" in the northern viewing area. But I really want to see how the 00z models look. Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wierdo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 what makes you say that? It's been pretty consistent every run. So have the other models, and the GFS is the outlier at the moment, both with timing and QPF, not to mention having the weak surface low all the way down in Mexico a couple of runs ago.. I'm not a great forecaster, so maybe it's picking up on something the others are missing, but HPEC thinks the GFS isn't doing well with this, and TUL seems to be backing off their bet on the GFS in the latest briefing, saying they're south of consensus and if they alter their forecast track, it will be back north. (not to mention their timing is much closer to the ECMWF and NAM than the GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 So have the other models, and the GFS is the outlier at the moment, both with timing and QPF, not to mention having the weak surface low all the way down in Mexico a couple of runs ago.. It's on the southern side of guidance along with the GGEM. If the system is weaker it will end up like the GFS. ECMWF is a compromise between the NAM/GFS and it's what I would put my money on depending on 00z guidance. 00z NAM starts in about 5 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wierdo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It's on the southern side of guidance along with the GGEM. If the system is weaker it will end up like the GFS. ECMWF is a compromise between the NAM/GFS and it's what I would put my money on depending on 00z guidance. The GGEM takes it farther south, and has the lower QPF, but also disagrees about timing, bringing the precip into Oklahoma a few hours after the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.