JoMo Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 EDIT: 12z Euro is out to 180 on Wunderground. You really can't get much different from the 12z GFS at 156+. It's more of a nasty looking phase type solution that brings colder air down but never really forms a storm as it shears out the SW system and leaves another cutoff behind. The result for here is rain. The long range euro is pretty blah as well. I know what you are saying Doug, but I'm going after a bigger storm. You are talking about the N stream driving through bringing colder air, then the southern low kicks out and uses the air already here to produce wintry precip. That works for me. The 12z op GFS is indicating that the N system is going to dominate and keep the colder air locked up north. It's still pretty far out though. The problem with the more phased solution is if it happens, then the storm could track over us or west of us which isn't any good if you like winter, heh. The Euro/UKMET has been kicking the GFS's butt again in the last 31 days as far as 500 MB in the medium range so I'm hoping for a good run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Monkey see, Monkey do. The 18z GFS has come basically in line with the 12z Euro. The only problem is the trough remains positively tilted. Need the tilt to change or the trough to be farther SE in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Monkey see, Monkey do. The 18z GFS has come basically in line with the 12z Euro. The only problem is the trough remains positively tilted. Need the tilt to change or the trough to be farther SE in this type of setup. Imagine if we have a winter like last season, it was cold yea and minus that one clobbering storm that dumped 23" that would have been one boring winter. That thing was our saving grace! All this talk is for when? Please dont say next saturday night and ice lol! Because thats when the xmas party is for our work and man its way up in clinton again this year which is almost 55 miles from our rental here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Here is some food for thought this AM from SGF: ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND SENDING A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE GONE WITH ALL RAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP A WARM NOISE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP AND HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SEE IF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SOMETHING GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT GOOD AT DEPICTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Imagine if we have a winter like last season, it was cold yea and minus that one clobbering storm that dumped 23" that would have been one boring winter. That thing was our saving grace! All this talk is for when? Please dont say next saturday night and ice lol! Because thats when the xmas party is for our work and man its way up in clinton again this year which is almost 55 miles from our rental here. Next weekend it looks like. 12z GFS getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Next weekend it looks like. 12z GFS getting better. Yeah I was about to say it looks like the GFS is upping the ante on our weekend snow. 850's look colder this run but hard to tell about the other boundary temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would put good money on the panhandles and N OK seeing some snow action this week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yeah I was about to say it looks like the GFS is upping the ante on our weekend snow. 850's look colder this run but hard to tell about the other boundary temps. I just look at 2m temps and the 32 degree line straddles I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I just look at 2m temps and they straddle I-44. Lol figures. Same old song and dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Waiting on GGEM. Havent paid much attention to it much this year yet so dont know it's recent track history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Waiting on GGEM. Havent paid much attention to it much this year yet so dont know it's recent track history. Probably not too good, at least the scores aren't. Euro is going to win again anyway. Waiting on the 12z GFS Ensemble members, several older runs have been showing the 12z OP solution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Probably not too good, at least the scores aren't. Euro is going to win again anyway. Waiting on the 12z GFS Ensemble members, several older runs have been showing the 12z OP solution today. Hopefully more of the ensembles go witht he OP, but we need the Euro as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Not liking the GEM (at least what I can make of it). Trash it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Not liking the GEM (at least what I can make of it). Trash it.. lol too far north 12z GEFS I'll take an order of P004 132 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Waiting on GGEM. Havent paid much attention to it much this year yet so dont know it's recent track history. fwiw: 132 & 144 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 yep GGEM is too far north for us. Curious to see what the Euro does, it starts in about 10 mins. As always, it's an on the edge thing here in the 4 state area. lol 12z GFS text output shows Joplin being 33 and rain during the heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 P004 looks nice as do a couple of the others. Long way to go so everything is on the table for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 yep GGEM is too far north for us. Curious to see what the Euro does, it starts in about 10 mins. As always, it's an on the edge thing here in the 4 state area. lol 12z GFS text output shows Joplin being 33 and rain during the heaviest. I would have thought JLN was in the good stuff based on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Hey everyone!! Long time, no talk. I'm hoping for some big snow, a blizzard would be nice for us here in Tulsa again:) Are we going to get anything this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 And 12z Euro is warmer and farther N. Pewp. It does hold a lot of energy back in the SW though which is a bias, hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 And 12z Euro is warmer and farther N. Pewp. It does hold a lot of energy back in the SW though which is a bias, hmm. So NO go per the euRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 So NO go per the euRO. Dr. No strikes again. It looks somewhat like the GGEM. I don't know if it's going to go down like that though, seems to hold back a lot of energy in the SW. Next run! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This has to be one of the tougher forecasts in awhile for Plains NWS offices. At H+84, the NAM and ECMWF are almost polar opposites, with the GFS somewhere between (closer to the Euro, though). So by the weekend, it seems there would be three completely separate ideas: 1. All the energy ejects mid-week, so presumably no weekend storm. (NAM) 2. Some of the energy cuts off over the SW, then ejects toward the southern High Plains by the weekend, with a relatively cold storm. (GFS) 3. Some of the energy cuts off over the SW, then shears out to the NE, with a relatively warm and weak storm. (ECMWF) It's possible there could still be some precipitation Fri/Sat with the NAM scenario, as there's a bit of energy over AZ/NM that's trying to separate from the main batch ejecting into the Midwest on Thursday. If there were, it would probably be something wintry, given the airmass invading the area late Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 It's snowing east of Memphis right now. Winter Storm Warning for that area down to Tupelo, MS for 2-4" of snow. 18z GFS nudged a bit back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 very nice I have to disagree. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I have to disagree. lol Probably will not the amount of snow that I see in the map but I am enjoying this first nice maps of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 very nice Sorry to disappoint, but TwisterData snow maps are incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Sorry to disappoint, but TwisterData snow maps are incorrect. http://www.americanw...ps-major-error/ Thank you for your information. I really appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The low is pulling snow back as far west now as West Plains. So close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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