Joplinmet Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I am going to do an extensive blog here in a bit with our rain tonight and what is coming up. The pattern right now is just shy of 50 days. I have been watching this trend for about 2 months now. But there are cycles with in cycles, but I am pretty sure that is where we are at. If it stretched out, we shouldn't be anymore than 52 days, but I am banking shy of 50. I will show you examples and post it on here later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Did you see what the 180 hr Euro is showing on the 12z run today? lol Just to our west down to OKC, snow. Yeah I love that feature now on that website. Gives us a new element of snowfall we've never had with the Euro, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah I love that feature now on that website. Gives us a new element of snowfall we've never had with the Euro, FWIW. Outside of Accuweather Pro of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Outside of Accuweather Pro of course Yes, indeed. Best on free sites at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'll be jealously watching all the fun from Chile. It looks like it could be an Ozarks winter I'm gonna hate to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 6Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I see what you are doing there okie, lol 12z GFS says no dice on the wraparound snow though as the system is back to being farther east. It snows in Memphis all the way down to central Alabama, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You can read my winter forecast at http://www.instantweathermaps.com/wf_2011-2012.php Here's an additional section for Tulsa in particular: Temps below average to well below average; it could be a roller-coaster ride but I don’t see many true warm periods occurring during the winter. Precipitation will above average, if only slightly – as I said earlier, areas east of I-35 can kiss the drought goodbye. Total snowfall should be 15-30+”; a top-10 snowfall winter is very likely. There could be numerous winter storms, many of which could be quite powerful. There is at least a 25% chance of having the third winter in a row with at least one blizzard warning issued. Temperatures will likely fall below zero at least once this winter, something that has only happened during one time period since the turn of the century. There is an elevated risk of ice storms, especially during December. Month-by-month: December continues the beginning of a cold pattern. First measurable snow could occur around the 7th-9th. The time frame of December 20 through January 15 could feature some very powerful winter storms. The chance of a white Christmas is somewhat elevated, at around 30%. January looks downright cold, with the storm track continuing to show its strength as well. Quite ironically, the period around Groundhog Day may once again be one to watch. February appears to be very cold as well. The pattern starts flipping to warm sometime in March, although this cold pattern should be about as easy to get rid of as the warm pattern was this past summer – that is, not easy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Some huge rain amts forecasted by Tulsa coming up over the next 3 days. Heaviest appears to stay south of us here in SW MO, but still some nice amts coming hopefully. You got 11 inches? looks like it was 1 to 3". It looks like the Oklahoma/Arkansas border is really pulling out of the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You got 11 inches? looks like it was 1 to 3". It looks like the Oklahoma/Arkansas border is really pulling out of the drought. The better amounts did stay south of me also. I was expecting more. I got about 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You can read my winter forecast at http://www.instantwe...f_2011-2012.php Here's an additional section for Tulsa in particular: Temps below average to well below average; it could be a roller-coaster ride but I don’t see many true warm periods occurring during the winter. Precipitation will above average, if only slightly – as I said earlier, areas east of I-35 can kiss the drought goodbye. Total snowfall should be 15-30+”; a top-10 snowfall winter is very likely. There could be numerous winter storms, many of which could be quite powerful. There is at least a 25% chance of having the third winter in a row with at least one blizzard warning issued. Temperatures will likely fall below zero at least once this winter, something that has only happened during one time period since the turn of the century. There is an elevated risk of ice storms, especially during December. Month-by-month: December continues the beginning of a cold pattern. First measurable snow could occur around the 7th-9th. The time frame of December 20 through January 15 could feature some very powerful winter storms. The chance of a white Christmas is somewhat elevated, at around 30%. January looks downright cold, with the storm track continuing to show its strength as well. Quite ironically, the period around Groundhog Day may once again be one to watch. February appears to be very cold as well. The pattern starts flipping to warm sometime in March, although this cold pattern should be about as easy to get rid of as the warm pattern was this past summer – that is, not easy at all. Last winter was awesome here. I just don't see 20+" season snowfall and -18 degrees happening here again anytime soon. Not say it can't happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Hey all... I am back for the season. Hope to see you around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 And it gets cold and everyone returns on schedule, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Joplin tornado 3rd worst in US history according to Greg Forbes. http://www.joplinglobe.com/local/x229375934/Expert-ranks-tornado-possibly-as-third-worst-in-U-S-history Looks like the best we are gonna see is some flurries with the next system prolly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 And it gets cold and everyone returns on schedule, lol Yep and wait til the first snowstorm comes lol! And then we all get pissy when we dont get snow and instead rain or it turns to a northerly track haha. Is all good though. I think this winter is gonna be such a roller coaster and Im really concerned with ice storms this season myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving from the Northeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Gobble Gobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Turkey Day! The weather is definitely calmer today than it will be on Saturday. Enjoy it while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2011 Author Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving to all. 00z Euro shows signs of a west coast trough dumping colder air into the US in the medium/long range. The GFS has flip-flopped around still. 06z GFS not as cold, 12z GFS, cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving to all of my swmo friends and also all of our central and american wx friends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 LOL I love my forecast for the weekend.....OOOPS lol. First time ive seen this kinda boo boo. Maybe supposed to say 10 percent or 20? lol Saturday Night: A 0 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wind chill values as low as 22. Northwest wind between 14 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 LOL I love my forecast for the weekend.....OOOPS lol. First time ive seen this kinda boo boo. Maybe supposed to say 10 percent or 20? lol Saturday Night: A 0 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wind chill values as low as 22. Northwest wind between 14 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Whoops! 12z GFS looks interesting in the longer term, Euro not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Whoops! 12z GFS looks interesting in the longer term, Euro not so much What time frame are you referring to? How many hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 What time frame are you referring to? How many hours out? Models are having trouble with even the shorter term and what to do with that storm to the south of us, but on the 12z GFS it was 204-240 or so. 18z GFS has the freezing line basically bisecting Arkansas from the SW to NE at 228. Not a big system and it won't even happen but it's something to watch, lol EDIT: 00z GFS update...... What is this, El-Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 EDIT: 00z GFS update...... What is this, El-Nino? I've been wondering the same thing for the past few months, as several systems have tracked across the Desert SW in a fashion we hadn't seen for quite awhile (reminiscent of 2007, if anything). Would sure be nice to get a continuation of that through the cold season and even into the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Looks like the location of that closed low will giving forecasters headaches over the next 24-36 hours or so... NAM wants to give Memphis a nice snow. If you follow Doug's theory, the pattern we are in right now is part of the cycle that will come back around again when it is colder. I think it may be an interesting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 Liking the cold, rainy dark day today. The storm systems lately and in the longer range are kind of strange in the way they are behaving and taking more of a southern track. Lacking a good cold air source or this may be more impressive if it were to even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Here is my latest blog. I post some info on my theories on this years pattern. Plus we have a possible winter evening next weekend. This fits in line with my theories, I even showed examples here. Have a great Sunday everyone. http://www.koamtv.com/story/16128687/tuesday-morning-august-23rd Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 06-12z GFS both missed the phase. Storm system is dropping into the SW and becoming cut off, N stream system which had been at least partially phasing in earlier runs is now not phasing and staying farther north which completely misses the cutoff. The end result is the cold stays well north of here while the cutoff meanders eastward and causes rain. I hope the Euro has a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 We don't want them to phase together. We want the first initial wave to give us the cold air advection. The newer models are slower on bringing the SW wave out. It will come out, the pattern says it will come out. It is just a question of when and how strong will it be. Watch the models this week, they will be all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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