NwWhiteOut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Interesting read, thanks for posting. This is Gary Lezak, of LRC fame. Doug Heady (who also believes in cycles) will have his winter forecast tonight on KOAM at 6 & 10. I just read dougs on his blog. Do you need the link? Seems doug thinks alot depends on the AO and how it sets up later in the winter. I also seen him mention the word ice storms! I didnt know about him and gary working together and sharing opinions, that was interesting. I liked gary lezaks forecasting alot when we lived in KC about 10 years ago or so. I really wish I could get kc locals down this way instead of springfield lol...I just dont put alot of trust in those guys sometimes haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 I just read dougs on his blog. Do you need the link? Seems doug thinks alot depends on the AO and how it sets up later in the winter. I also seen him mention the word ice storms! I didnt know about him and gary working together and sharing opinions, that was interesting. I liked gary lezaks forecasting alot when we lived in KC about 10 years ago or so. I really wish I could get kc locals down this way instead of springfield lol...I just dont put alot of trust in those guys sometimes haha. I watched it, but for others, the link is here: http://www.koamtv.com/story/16049228/tuesday-morning-august-23rd Average winter with above average precip. ------------------------------------------------ It all really depends on the AO and the SE ridge. I like what I'm seeing on the GFS with the active storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I dont think I like Dougs winter cast so much since I thought it sounded like we have a good ice storm potential , what thoughts do you guys have JoMo , nw whiteout ???... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 I dont think I like Dougs winter cast so much since I thought it sounded like we have a good ice storm potential , what thoughts do you guys have JoMo , nw whiteout ???... Going to depend on the AO and how strong the SE ridge is. If we have a negative AO and the SE ridge is suppressed, then we could see some good snow. If the SE ridge is a little stronger but we have a good low level cold air source, we get ice. If the AO is positive, then we will likely see more of a rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I dont think I like Dougs winter cast so much since I thought it sounded like we have a good ice storm potential , what thoughts do you guys have JoMo , nw whiteout ???... Couldnt have said it better then JoMo did. He knows and understands this sort of stuff alot better then me anyhow lol.....but I agree with him. I just got a feeling that we may see some ice this year, just call it a gut feeling though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 No snow yet here in JoMo but areas around here are reporting snow today. Some of it is sticking to elevated and grassy surfaces as well. EDIT: Snowing in Joplin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 No snow yet here in JoMo but areas around here are reporting snow today. Some of it is sticking to elevated and grassy surfaces as well. EDIT: Snowing in Joplin! Crazy lol! Send some up my way plz ok. It looks like I may get into this little bit of activity shortly. Then it starts warming back up again into the 60's haha!!! Crazy weather this time of year huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Crazy lol! Send some up my way plz ok. It looks like I may get into this little bit of activity shortly. Then it starts warming back up again into the 60's haha!!! Crazy weather this time of year huh yeah it was bigish flakes mixed with sleet, probably lasted 5-10 mins, didn't stick at all but was nice coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 yeah it was bigish flakes mixed with sleet, probably lasted 5-10 mins, didn't stick at all but was nice coming down. Had some nice flakes falling here in Monett around 5PM today as well. Gradually mixed with and then became mostly light rain as the evening went on. Was a pleasant surprise and put me in the mood for more now. No accum BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Had some nice flakes falling here in Monett around 5PM today as well. Gradually mixed with and then became mostly light rain as the evening went on. Was a pleasant surprise and put me in the mood for more now. No accum BTW. Eh you guys got lucky....didnt do anything here. It sure is pretty damn cold out there tonight though! How are ya btw man I havent seen you on here in a bit? Im sure thats gonna change now that winter is approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 yeah some areas in Kansas got around 1/2-3/4" on the grassy areas it came down so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Eh you guys got lucky....didnt do anything here. It sure is pretty damn cold out there tonight though! How are ya btw man I havent seen you on here in a bit? Im sure thats gonna change now that winter is approaching Hey Whiteout going good here how about you. Yeah I usually lay pretty low during the boring months of summer. Busy schedule and just not much to get excited about in the weather world you know. But I'll defin be lurking more often now that winter is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Even with positive AO, we can get some good ice set-ups. The winter of 2007-2008, we had a postive AO most of the winter and got hammered with ice storms. If I remember correctly, I think had 4 of them that winter. Of course we had the one major one on the 6th or 8th of December. Look at the system that comes in on Monday and Tuesday. A front sinks through on Sunday, then an upper level wave pushes in on Monday and Tuesday. The airmass is pretty cold but shallow in the lower levels of the atmo. This is very similar to what could happen this winter. The system on Monday and Tuesday would be an ice event for southern MO if we were just a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Even with positive AO, we can get some good ice set-ups. The winter of 2007-2008, we had a postive AO most of the winter and got hammered with ice storms. If I remember correctly, I think had 4 of them that winter. Of course we had the one major one on the 6th or 8th of December. Look at the system that comes in on Monday and Tuesday. A front sinks through on Sunday, then an upper level wave pushes in on Monday and Tuesday. The airmass is pretty cold but shallow in the lower levels of the atmo. This is very similar to what could happen this winter. The system on Monday and Tuesday would be an ice event for southern MO if we were just a little colder. True. It depends on where everything sets up. The Dec 8th-10th 2007 ice storms was pretty nuts. Couple inches of snow on Dec 15th, big severe weather/tornado outbreak Jan 7-8th 2008 for areas S and E of Joplin. Had a couple times it snowed between then and the Feb 11-12th Ice Storm. Heavy rain on the 16th and 17th, and another decent ice storm Feb 21st. Then March 8th was the date of that weird 2 bands of snow with rates of 3" hour. Then the May 10th Picher, OK tornado in May. I can't wait to use the ECMWF model this year on Wunderground's wundermap page. The strange March 8th snow: Strange that the tornado tracks from the Jan system almost line up with that one band of snow.... hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 JoMo, what is so good about the Euro model on weatherunderground? Did they change it? I have never looked at models on that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 JoMo, what is so good about the Euro model on weatherunderground? Did they change it? I have never looked at models on that site. It goes out to 180 in 3 hour increments with pretty graphics and it's zoomable. Even has a snowfall map for lazy people like me. The interface is a bit clunky for Wundermaps though. Should probably uncheck the weather station and NEXRAD checkbox, then turn on the "Model Data" checkbox. Oh and you'll probably want to zoom out to continent view. Best there is outside paying for it. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It goes out to 180 in 3 hour increments with pretty graphics and it's zoomable. Even has a snowfall map for lazy people like me. The interface is a bit clunky for Wundermaps though. Should probably uncheck the weather station and NEXRAD checkbox, then turn on the "Model Data" checkbox. Oh and you'll probably want to zoom out to continent view. Best there is outside paying for it. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Ok checking it out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yeah JoMo I'll not soon forget that crazy snow in March '08. I drove to work that morning in Monett with just a trace of snow overnite on the roadway. When I get to work I have people that live just S and E of town telling me they have 6" of snow on the ground, literally just a couple of miles out of town. They had to show me pics to convince me I had missed a good snow lol. That was quite the active winter no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Here's a link to the winter forecast by Dave Murray out of St Louis. I know that isnt exactly our region but the overall pattern would affect us similarly in all likelihood. I like his forecast, especially the mention of the classic storms coming out of the panhandle. There are 4 parts to his forecast so look for the other parts underneath the first video. http://www.fox2now.c...,0,225520.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Here's a link to the winter forecast by Dave Murray out of St Louis. I know that isnt exactly our region but the overall pattern would affect us similarly in all likelihood. I like his forecast, especially the mention of the classic storms coming out of the panhandle. There are 4 parts to his forecast so look for the other parts underneath the first video. http://www.fox2now.c...,0,225520.story nice, thanks for posting that. He tends to favor southern storm tracks it seems which makes sense looking at what has been happening the last few weeks. We may be looking at a 2007 2008 type of season if that happens. The long range GFS today is showing some changes around the first part of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 nice, thanks for posting that. He tends to favor southern storm tracks it seems which makes sense looking at what has been happening the last few weeks. We may be looking at a 2007 2008 type of season if that happens. The long range GFS today is showing some changes around the first part of December. Yeah he seems to be riding December pretty hard as being really active so hope to see signs of this showing up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Some huge rain amts forecasted by Tulsa coming up over the next 3 days. Heaviest appears to stay south of us here in SW MO, but still some nice amts coming hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Although the more I look at that map not sure what it is projecting - MAX forecast Rain thru Tuesday. Not sure those actually represent their forecasted amts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 yeah this next system is going to put out a lot of rain. If the storm were to track a bit farther south and it was colder, that would be a decent winter storm track GFS still showing a pretty deep trough being carved out in the long range. It would be the eastern trough ln Doug and Lezak's forecast pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Reminds me of winter today..... 38 with fog and mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Reminds me of winter today..... 38 with fog and mist. Yeah I thought that earlier. Looks like a typical grey December day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah I thought that earlier. Looks like a typical grey December day. Did you see what the 180 hr Euro is showing on the 12z run today? lol Just to our west down to OKC, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Did you see what the 180 hr Euro is showing on the 12z run today? lol Just to our west down to OKC, snow. Wow. That's impressive. I wonder what the next few hours would show since 180 hr is the last one we can see on wunderground? Pretty cool. This would be an interesting twist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wow. That's impressive. I wonder what the next few hours would show since 180 hr is the last one we can see on wunderground? Pretty cool. This would be an interesting twist. yeah it probably won't happen. It's nice to see though. The models have been very terrible in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 GFS is flopping around like a fish out of water. The 12z run shows a cutoff low to our east that actually retrogrades a bit to the NW, it changes the pattern and brings down the cold. The 06z run shows nothing like that. Edit: 12z Euro is coming in looking more like the 12z GFS through 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.