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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Fall 2011


JoMo

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Yeah, I'm at around 5" or so, based on a quick look out my back door. Not a lot, but as I was pointing out on another forum, that's a pretty solid storm around these parts. And I guess I'm not going to Fayetteville any time soon..

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holy smokes, I thought this thing could overperform well for a few people but didn't think 25" worth. ratios had to be very high with that.

i cant imagine what that much snow looks like! we would be homebound for well over a week here. the town would be in a panic.

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The winner is.......the NAM. The loser is.....:gun_bandana: the GFS.

What's crazy is the GFS was remarkably consistent in its' handling of features and QPF fields. Gotta love winter weather forecasting!

Yeah the NAM decreased it's QPF field but had the placement of that band nearly dead on a few days in advance. It was initially too moist everywhere.

The GFS increased QPF amounts but was too moist and had the placement all wrong in the end favoring areas farther south.

The HRRR and RUC did well at picking up trends but was too far N with the band of snow for too many runs until it shifted back south.

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Now for the big meltdown as we get into a warmer pattern and end up on the 'warm' side of the systems passing to our NW.

Yeah the patterrn basically goes into the toilet for most of the country, nevermind your area...in NYC we need about 18 more inches for the snowiest winter on record...I'm no longer sure we're going to get it...there is usually a big snow event in your area at the end of most of the stronger La Nina winters in March...they occurred in 1989, 1999, and 2009...the track record is quite remarkable so I'd be surprised if one did not occur this year...they usually favor S KS and S MO as well.

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Yeah the patterrn basically goes into the toilet for most of the country, nevermind your area...in NYC we need about 18 more inches for the snowiest winter on record...I'm no longer sure we're going to get it...there is usually a big snow event in your area at the end of most of the stronger La Nina winters in March...they occurred in 1989, 1999, and 2009...the track record is quite remarkable so I'd be surprised if one did not occur this year...they usually favor S KS and S MO as well.

March is always a toss up. It can be snowing one day and 73 two days later like last year ;)

The big plus is this probably helped with the drought.

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