SEMIweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I really like the chances south of I-40 with this event given the models almost always underestimate the presence of that high beyond 2 days...the GEM is the worst, hence why it has the snows mainly in KS initially...this event IMO will have minimal impact much north of an Enid-Stillwater-Tulsa line given its likely to become suppressed with time...it may even be the axis of heaviest snow winds up south of OUN but I still think you're good for 3-5 inches or so at worst based on what I see now. Thanks for your input, nice to hear from a Pro Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 06/00z GGEM looks fairly similar to GFS with QPF amounts and placement. A solid 6-12" event for a huge chunk of OK taken verbatim, which is quite the rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A pro-met from another forum has mentioned that the 06/00Z NAM was painting a sleet/freezing rain scenario for C/S OK for this upcoming event. I don't doubt that the thicknesses towards the end of the NAM run support that possibility, but I've often been told that once you take the NAM to 78-84 hours out, its' usefulness decreases. I wonder if this is true, since no other model is showing an icy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A pro-met from another forum has mentioned that the 06/00Z NAM was painting a sleet/freezing rain scenario for C/S OK for this upcoming event. I don't doubt that the thicknesses towards the end of the NAM run support that possibility, but I've often been told that once you take the NAM to 78-84 hours out, its' usefulness decreases. I wonder if this is true, since no other model is showing an icy scenario. I think he just meant that the possibility is there if the warm nose verifies warmer than any of the models are showing. Even the NAM, at H+84, appears poised to give us an all-snow event, no contest. I'm not too worried about precip type at this point, because there isn't that much of a "warm nose" to speak of on the current progs. For the last event, a substantial warm nose was forecast all along; it was simply a question of magnitude and the timing of any given location dropping below freezing throughout the column. As of right now, this system doesn't look to have the same degree of warm advection in the 700-850 mb layer. One of the benefits of a less amped-up storm system. Anything is possible, but personally, I'd be much more concerned with track and QPF amounts than the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A pro-met from another forum has mentioned that the 06/00Z NAM was painting a sleet/freezing rain scenario for C/S OK for this upcoming event. I don't doubt that the thicknesses towards the end of the NAM run support that possibility, but I've often been told that once you take the NAM to 78-84 hours out, its' usefulness decreases. I wonder if this is true, since no other model is showing an icy scenario. The NAM is overall a bad model at 66 hours and out...occasionally it has events where it does a good job...this might be a system where it would be okay since its not a very strong one...the NAM tends to be very amped up and warm at that range generally with bigger systems...still though it often cannot resolve the magnitude of cold air that far out but is one of the best models doing so once inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is one of those scenarios for Joplin where the WAA type precip is north of here and the system will slide to the south. That's fine, cause we don't need anymore snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So, Tulsa will be on the fringes of the snow this time? does that mean only 6 inches? LOL... I remember some winters when I would kill for 6 inches...I think I'm getting spoiled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the tulsa nws office is wacked......the decision support page is showing no snow at all .....thats a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the tulsa nws office is wacked......the decision support page is showing no snow at all .....thats a good one! It is back... I think they were probably just updating it. On a related note, someone should really teach "GW" from the TSA office how to write a forecast discussion. His (hers?) are consistently not even worth reading. Why bother to write that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It is back... I think they were probably just updating it. On a related note, someone should really teach "GW" from the TSA office how to write a forecast discussion. His (hers?) are consistently not even worth reading. Why bother to write that? There are a few forecasters at both OUN and TSA who are quite abbreviated while at the same time there are a few who are very lengthy....alot of the time the really short AFDs are from older forecasters from the pre-internet days back when basically nobody even read them.....from my knowledge that particular forecaster is not that old...some of the forecasters simply prefer to spend more time of grids and editing zones and what not as opposed to throwing out a very in depth AFD....I knew some great forecasters who wrote horrendous AFDs and some terrible ones who went on for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 SnowGoose... totally understandable on focusing on the grids, which are much more important. Yet, I believe the AFDs play a much greater role in public awareness now than they used to. Of course, the size of the AFD doesn't matter, but I think many people would like insight into their thoughts on an upcoming WSWatch, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM seems to be targeting NE OK into W-central AR this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM seems to be targeting NE OK into W-central AR this morning The NAM nailed an overrunning event being well north of all models in the NE U.S. last week...we'll have to see if perhaps its onto something again...in this case I doubt it since a monster high is driving southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 The NAM nailed an overrunning event being well north of all models in the NE U.S. last week...we'll have to see if perhaps its onto something again...in this case I doubt it since a monster high is driving southward. I'm not sure it will be. The 09z SREF is farther south and the NAM is a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm not sure it will be. The 09z SREF is farther south and the NAM is a terrible model. Alot of times in these situations you can just look at models which tend to have extreme biases one way or the other to get an idea of what will happen...the GEM, a model normally well north with storms in this region agrees with the GFS...the NOGAPS, a very progressive model is very progressive showing little snow and it being mostly over N TX....the CRAS, a normally amped up model run by CIMMS is not that far north and west....obviously the NOGAPS and CRAS are terrible models, but often if they are not exhibiting their normal biases you can begin hedging that the other models may be off in their depictions...if the NOGAPS was showing snow in KS and the CRAS in Nebraska I'd be alarmed that the GFS/Euro/GEM were probably way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This one will prolly verify further north, just like the past 3 have done, including today's small wave. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The RUC looks interesting for me this evening and tonight. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The RUC looks interesting for me this evening and tonight. Who knows. I really think you're in great shape for another nice dump of snow this week down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yea maybe. But its kind of trending south abit. High pressure is showing its muscle. Still.. TSA might go ahead.. and pull the WSW trigger this evening or tonight.. I really think you're in great shape for another nice dump of snow this week down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z NAM Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hey everyone! So which model are we going to go with? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 WOW!!! Tulsa here we go again!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL NAM I-40 north= Big time snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 deja vu storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX crazy........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So when will we see the winter storm warnings out?? The track my change, but my goodness...this state will officially be closed!! INSANE............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL NAM I-40 north= Big time snows.. You hit the jackpot on the 12z GFS which isn't too far off it's 00z run. NAM is being trash like usual. Well I wouldn't say the jackpot, but it's farther south than the NAM with the best precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If it doesnt go anymore south or get smashed anymore I might do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the tulsa office overnight was a scream they went from 50-80% for the coming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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