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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Fall 2011


JoMo

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Took a few pics from my iPhone but don't know how to upload them from my phone. Can someone help.

1. Download or email them to your computer. Remember where you saved them.

2. Start a post on the forum like you usually do and select at the bottom of the message box "use full editor" or something like that

3. On the full editor, you will notice an "attachments " section. Click Browse and select the photo from your computer, and click "attach this file."

4. Once it is uploaded to the site, you will notice a link off to the right with words like "add to post." Click that and it will insert attachment into the message.

5. You can cut/paste/move the attachment around as desired like any other text.

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It is not like there weren't some clues that this had the potential to bust quite high somewhere.

1. Thundersnow over pac nw monday.

2. Heavy snow in KS tuesday.

3. Super high ratios.

4. Frontogenic forcing andthermal gradient off the charts last evening.

5. The NAM may be on crack at H72, but inside the sweet zone (30 hours or less) it is not quite so erratic (I like to think of the NAM as a teenager, never truly reliable but sometimes awesome when you least expect it, lol)

post-742-0-68100200-1297263476.jpg

post-742-0-69676800-1297263491.jpg

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lol Tulsa:

ALL IN ALL...THE NAM WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER COMING INTO THE EVENT WAS THE BETTER MODEL FOR THIS STORM...GO FIGURE.

And 2 weeks without trash service is a little much.

Just read that the city of Joplin tried to run residential service today but the snow stopped them. Also canceled for tomorrow. My area is actually the last to get trash service, because they have to back down the street to reach us and they always say that is too dangerous.

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It is not like there weren't some clues that this had the potential to bust quite high somewhere.

1. Thundersnow over pac nw monday.

2. Heavy snow in KS tuesday.

3. Super high ratios.

4. Frontogenic forcing andthermal gradient off the charts last evening.

5. The NAM may be on crack at H72, but inside the sweet zone (30 hours or less) it is not quite so erratic (I like to think of the NAM as a teenager, never truly reliable but sometimes awesome when you least expect it, lol)

It busted terribly with the blizzard. 2+ feet of snow just hours before the event across S Central KS to central OK in a thin band that never materialized while showing less snow over SE KS/SW MO/NE OK that was underforecast. The GFS had the right idea and was steady all along.

NAM must be useful for overrunning events though, even if it's totals were too high for a lot of areas outside the band of snow. GFS/GGEM did really badly with this storm. RGEM did pretty well as well. Not sure about the Euro.

NAM nailed the band from pretty far out actually:

NAM_221_2011020612_F84_PCPIN_84_HR.png

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Just read that the city of Joplin tried to run residential service today but the snow stopped them. Also canceled for tomorrow. My area is actually the last to get trash service, because they have to back down the street to reach us and they always say that is too dangerous.

It's good to see that even after the Blizzard, 3" of snow can still shut Joplin down. ;)

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NW Arkansas wins again, while the folks in Central AR will probably only get a moderate snow event.

Yeah you all have the Ozarks working against you a lot of times. Tough to get cold air down there, a trough usually forms west of the Ozarks, and then you have to worry about moisture issues.

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I just measured again. Very hard to get an accurate account with the drifting going on. My average was 5.25". That pales in comparison with NW AR but is much higher than I was anticipating.

Same here its way more then what I was expecting as well. Not much wind here and all the spots i measures were about or a little above 4.5". Havent seen a single snow plow yet in town. We have 2wd so lost another day of work. This county is horrible when it comes to plowing roads and this town well it usually takes them about 3 days after a storm to even touch our road lol.

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Hearing some reports from people I work with in Springdale of well over 20" there.

Local met Garrett Lewis at channel 5 said there was a report of 25 inches in Gentry. I think they're streaming live off and on today. (I can't load it on my connection.) I've been watching it on tv most of the morning. Craziness! 5 News Fort Smith/Fayetteville

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SemiWeather where are you? boomer! okie333 whats it doing out your window? Spot still coming down?

Still snowing moderate/heavily with 1/4 mi visibility in Eureka Springs, which is 40 miles east of Rogers/Bentonville near MO border. Right in the middle of the tight gradient between the monster snows to the south and the lighter snows to the north. Will go measure in a while.

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I just measured again. Very hard to get an accurate account with the drifting going on. My average was 5.25". That pales in comparison with NW AR but is much higher than I was anticipating.

I'd say you're pretty close. I measured 3" around 7AM before going to work so figured we were close to that now. I'll check at lunch to see what I come up with.

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mcd0101.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1003 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011

  AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...FAR NE TX...AR...NRN LA...WRN TN...NW MS

  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

  VALID 091603Z - 092200Z

  SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID-MS
  VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
  ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR...NW MS AND WRN TN. A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET
  AND SNOW SHOULD EXIST FROM FAR NE TX EWD ACROSS FAR NRN LA INTO
  WCNTRL MS.

  A LARGE AREA OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ERN OK AND AR
  LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
  EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH SFC WINDS ARE NELY WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM
  ADVECTION AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS
  FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
  LOCATED IN ERN OK AND NW AR JUST AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX IN NE OK.
  THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OK INCREASING
  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
  GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AR LATER
  THIS AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES BECOMING LIKELY
  ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.

  FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM NE TX ENEWD ACROSS FAR NRN LA INTO NCNTRL
  MS...SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 32 F IN NCNTRL MS TO THE
  MID TO UPPER 30S F IN THE VICINITY OF SHREVEPORT LA. HOWEVER...NORTH
  TO NELY SFC WINDS SHOULD ENABLE SFC TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
  ACROSS MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
  ACROSS NRN LA AND NCNTRL MS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW
  FREEZING SUGGESTING RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND MAY
  BE MIXED WITH SNOW. AS SFC TEMPS COOL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A
  TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW APPEARS LIKELY AND 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
  RATES MAY OCCUR.

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