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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Fall 2011


JoMo

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2:49 a.m. update:

Heavy bands of snow at a rate of 1-2"/hour ongoing north and northeast of Tulsa. Osage, Washington, Southern Nowata, Craig and Delaware county seeing the heaviest snow. We are amazed by our Bartlesville camera as we watch the gusty winds blow the heavy snow sideways. Heaviest snow so far has been along and north of Highway 412. That will be shifting south and east. Tulsa has picked up about .6" so far. A fine powder blowing around, almost like sand, it will be hard to measure once it is said and done. We are noticing little traffic if any around. We're glad to see that. Best bet is to stay home. We're going to keep cutting in all night and we will be going on this morning at 4:30am with a special, early edition of 2NEWS Today. Working on the forecast and tracking the current conditions

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Not sure, but I don't even think it's snowing here anymore. It just appears to be snowing heavily in that band.

Backed off here once again also. When it comes down it really comes down and adds up pretty fast. We got to enjoy this now cause a really good warmup is coming lol. All this snow will probly be melted by next week with the expected temps.

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Great ratios will probably save this for the OKC metro and most people probably will only realize there was a minor bust because so much will fall in areas to the north...they've gotten 2 already and its snowing very hard in Norman right now on the webcam I'm seeing...OKC may still manage 6 inches surprisingly...they might see 2 inches in an hour at some point.

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First report out of OUN all night: 12" in Enid.

Looks pretty clear that the winners for the entire event (outside of KS) will be those who were in the END-BVO-FYV band that set up around midnight.

The NAM again proved its generally a superior model in this part of the country as was the ETA.....I know that many people in KS/MO find the GFS does better but the NAM nailed the 12/24/09 blizzard showing heavy snow west of I-35 well before most other models showed it that far west...the GFS even the night before was still too far east....the NAM did not do that well on the big storm last week but wow did it nail this one as it nailed the overrunning event in the NE U.S. last week showing the heavy snows north of all other guidance from 84 hours out...the remarkable thing is the NAM was catching on all day as well, lowering the totals over C-S OK.....I should mention the SPC WRF also got the heavy band placement right again though its timing was off, but its hour 34 frame of the radar was quite close to what was going on most of the night...hopefully the word gets out how good this model is at pinpointing mesoscale bands in winter events...it has hit placement in 3 of the NE storms so far this winter.

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Every dog has its day, and it looks like for both NW AR and the NAM today is the day :whistle:. The HRR picked up on that insane band last night and boom, 5" per hour totals being reported. Even though, I am not quite in the insane band, I am glad that the brothers and sisters in Benton, Washington and Madison County get their shot (i.e. Waterboy).

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6z HRRR

acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

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