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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Fall 2011


JoMo

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Seems like the HRRR has continually nudged the higher QPF for the main event in the morning a bit S on each run this evening. Now (02z run) it has the bullseye along and 30-40 miles either side of I-44 from OKC-TUL-JLN. Seems more like a GFS/NAM compromise than the pure NAM solution the RR models had earlier today.

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Seems like the HRRR has continually nudged the higher QPF for the main event in the morning a bit S on each run this evening. Now (02z run) it has the bullseye along and 30-40 miles either side of I-44 from OKC-TUL-JLN. Seems more like a GFS/NAM compromise than the pure NAM solution the RR models had earlier today.

so tulsa is smack dab in the center now? oh this is getting sweeter by the second!!! popcorn.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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I give Tulsa credit they are willing to move around the forecast numbers. In any case, the numbers for NW AR took a big jump. The deep instability at 12z (6am) at 700mb is nosing in NW AR per the HRR. This one just might significantly overperform if some convective banding sets up. Everybody got your cameras ready?

Tulsa is in the middle of updating their forecast amounts again. Looks like 8.5" for Tulsa, 6.6" for Miami, OK, 8.8" for Fayetteville, 8.6" for Ft. Smith.

StormSnowAmt.png

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Snow is still a few hours away and they've already closed pretty much every school district in my county, (Sequoyah) including ours. Latest snow map from Tulsa says 8.5. I will have two VERY happy little boys tomorrow morning. And more than likely a happy husband, since his boss probably won't open the shop tomorrow in Fort Smith.

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Snow is still a few hours away and they've already closed pretty much every school district in my county, (Sequoyah) including ours. Latest snow map from Tulsa says 8.5. I will have two VERY happy little boys tomorrow morning. And more than likely a happy husband, since his boss probably won't open the shop tomorrow in Fort Smith.

awwwww!

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Seems like the HRRR has continually nudged the higher QPF for the main event in the morning a bit S on each run this evening. Now (02z run) it has the bullseye along and 30-40 miles either side of I-44 from OKC-TUL-JLN. Seems more like a GFS/NAM compromise than the pure NAM solution the RR models had earlier today.

Yeah looks like the trend south continues.

acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

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mcd0098.gif

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1045 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

  AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/CNTRL OKLAHOMA

  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

  VALID 090445Z - 090745Z

  MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
  PLAINS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
  SUSTAINED HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS NOT CLEAR.  HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES
  APPEAR SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING/MAINTAINING AN AREA OF STRONG UPWARD
  VERTICAL MOTION IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
  OKLAHOMA DURING THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
  MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL
  GROWTH...WHICH PROBABLY WILL PROMOTE HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1
  INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...PARTICULARLY AS
  HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE
  REGION.  HEAVIEST SNOW RATES MAY NOT IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY
  METROPOLITAN AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNTOWN AND SOUTHEASTERN
  SECTIONS...UNTIL CLOSER TO 09Z.

  ..KERR.. 02/09/2011

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Just ran and looked at my 05Z Smartmodel, across the Oklahoma region looking like lower accumulations. Earlier runs around 00Z was showing 6-10" across the region, now with the latest, Tulsa is progged to get around 5.6", Oklahoma city 4", McAlester and Okmulgee was around 5.5". Any thoughts on the snow accumulation.

Yeah the HRRR lowered totals as well.

Both the RUC and HRRR are starting to indicate a band along the KS/OK border developing though.

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