SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Radar echoes are overachieving significantly in this event, quite characteristic of a high ratio event with very cold temps...Blackwell airport in OK has +SN with 20dbz echoes and Enid is 3/4SM with 15-18dbz.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Radar echoes are overachieving significantly in this event, quite characteristic of a high ratio event with very cold temps...Blackwell airport in OK has +SN with 20dbz echoes and Enid is 3/4SM with 15-18dbz.. Meanwhile I have 20 dbz and not even a flurry Dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Meanwhile I have 20 dbz and not even a flurry Dry air Your RH is coming up... should be over the hump shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 NAM continues it's downward trend of precip: (little more in SW MO though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 start to snow in bartlesville..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 What does this mean for nwa? 40/29 TV has an very good blog and it is a nice resource to add to this forum. Accumulation maps posted there. They are going with a NAM/GFS blend. I sort of interpret what they are saying as "hard to figure this one, but the path of least regret is generally the middle ground." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Doug just updated: http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13994403 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 AMA starting to get in on the snow action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Seriously, they have made this event so big in Oklahoma that is better produce or else..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Still snowing after this across E OK, SE KS, SW MO, W ARK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It has to start here first... but I like the sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 It has to start here first... but I like the sentiment. yeah no kidding, I'm about to go outside and boil some water on the grill or something to release some water vapor to saturate this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Seriously, they have made this event so big in Oklahoma that is better produce or else..... that is the truth....groceries are empty folks will riot if this storm is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 LOL...I don't know what that HRRR thing is, but I like it...forget that...I LOOOOVVVEEE IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 LOL...I don't know what that HRRR thing is, but I like it...forget that...I LOOOOVVVEEE IT! where is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 where is it? http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t5&run_time=09+Feb+2011+-+01Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 I do believe I have some flurries here so saturation is occurring. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 926 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... INITIAL PHASES OF WINTER STORM UNDERWAY WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...AND LIKELY TO START ACROSS FAR NW ARKANSAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL RATIOS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE...MAKING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE ONGOING BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY MORNING...WITH THE EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE MARKING THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FORCING YET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL WIDEN THE SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS AND INCLUDE PORTIONS OF FAR NW ARKANSAS IN THE 5-8 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE LATEST NAM MAINTAINS THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION. ALSO WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN OBSERVATIONS AND INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 913 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .UPDATE... PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND HAS SET UP FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BAND... SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INCLUDE 3 TO 4 INCHES AT BUFFALO... 4 TO 5 INCHES AT BLACKWELL AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN ENID SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA... THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST... LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE CORRESPONDED WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY BE OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH FORCING AT SUCH LOW LEVELS. HAVE MADE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO UPDATE THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION /ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/... INCREASE WIND GUSTS /ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST/... AND REDUCE MIN TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. GIVEN THE SNOWFALL RATES AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION... THE PREDICTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. .26. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 928 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .UPDATE... CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING HEADLINE STILL LOOKS VALID WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 00Z NAM-WRF KEEPS WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WHERE THE DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE. FRONTOGENESIS BAND REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BEFORE IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO KEEP 100% SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH...AND 60-70% IN CENTRAL KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm especially hoping Tulsa can pull off 9" or 10" with this storm, that way they can have their snowiest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well so much for the 1-2 inches at best here lol...its over performing so far. Been snowing like crazy and got 3" on the ground now and its still coming down good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Welp tulsa isnt going to get as much as i had hoped. 7" just doesnt cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Tulsa should easily see their snowiest cold (winter) season and snowiest month ever on record (6" are needed for both). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm especially hoping Tulsa can pull off 9" or 10" with this storm, that way they can have their snowiest year on record. Me too!!! This storm seems to be overperforming EVERYWHERE! I think by the time it's done Tulsa will get that 10'' I wanted!! Just keep the faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Still a tale of 2 models with QPF forecasts with the GFS showing more over Central and S OK. 00z GFS: 00z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 people need to stop worrying about this event and the low qpf numbers...look what happened in KS! these maps are impressive! and your throwing out ratios of 30:1....40" with those ratios, do the math. I mentioned this last night, these intense bands are going to overperform by a good amount and thats what your going to get in OK starting in the next few hours. OK is going to do fine, the radar is going to get more impressive as we go into the overnight hours as fronto forcing increases and the s/w trof continues to move ESE. The HRRR has a pretty good handle with the ongoing stuff right now tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I do believe I have some flurries here so saturation is occurring. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 926 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... INITIAL PHASES OF WINTER STORM UNDERWAY WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...AND LIKELY TO START ACROSS FAR NW ARKANSAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL RATIOS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE...MAKING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE ONGOING BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY MORNING...WITH THE EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE MARKING THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FORCING YET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL WIDEN THE SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS AND INCLUDE PORTIONS OF FAR NW ARKANSAS IN THE 5-8 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE LATEST NAM MAINTAINS THE ZONE OF STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION. ALSO WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN OBSERVATIONS AND INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 913 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .UPDATE... PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND HAS SET UP FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BAND... SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INCLUDE 3 TO 4 INCHES AT BUFFALO... 4 TO 5 INCHES AT BLACKWELL AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN ENID SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA... THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST... LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE CORRESPONDED WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY BE OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH FORCING AT SUCH LOW LEVELS. HAVE MADE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO UPDATE THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION /ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/... INCREASE WIND GUSTS /ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST/... AND REDUCE MIN TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. GIVEN THE SNOWFALL RATES AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION... THE PREDICTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. .26. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 928 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .UPDATE... CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING HEADLINE STILL LOOKS VALID WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 00Z NAM-WRF KEEPS WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WHERE THE DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE. FRONTOGENESIS BAND REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES BEFORE IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO KEEP 100% SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH...AND 60-70% IN CENTRAL KS. all those updates should boost your guys confidence of getting sig amounts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 922 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 UPDATE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG/DEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUPERIMPOSED ON BROADER SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS PHONE CALLS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR WITHIN THIS BAND. THIS SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF/ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NORTH WINDS OF 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AT 03Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE TO THE NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE ATTM. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...NEAR WHITEOUT TO AT TIMES WHITEOUT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ATTM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. UPDATE ALREADY SENT OUT WITH ADJUSTED 6-HOURLY SNOWFALL GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER REPORTED SNOWFALL AND CURRENT TRENDS. STILL THE END RESULT COMES OUT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN AREAS OF STRONG/PERSISTENT BANDING. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS IN THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Tulsa is in the middle of updating their forecast amounts again. Looks like 8.5" for Tulsa, 6.6" for Miami, OK, 8.8" for Fayetteville, 8.6" for Ft. Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 they got under a very intense band about 90 mins ago west of AMA, probably nearing 3"/hr. 0948 PM SNOW VEGA 35.25N 102.43W 02/08/2011 E5.0 INCH OLDHAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ok im sorry guys hope is restored thanks thundersnow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 saw a tornado there last May lol 0936 PM SNOW DALHART 36.06N 102.52W 02/08/2011 E1.5 INCH HARTLEY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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