baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What the... 850mb frontogenesis... I don't know exactly what it is but the numbers are enormous. Keep in mind that the NWS typically would would want their contour maps to saturate, so they would make the contours go up to some really absurd value that they know will never happen. That donut hole in the middle is proof that the 850mb frontogenesis map saturates at a value of 1,000 (the inner circle has 1000 written on it). Frontogenesis literally means "birth of a front" while frontolysis is the opposite. In a simple sense--all it means is an increasing thermal gradient with time over some horizontal distance. Typically it is measured in some form of temperature/[(distance)(time)]. A typical value may be Kelvin/[(km)(1 Hr)]. Frontogenesis can develop in a number of ways including low level convergence, horizontal deformation, tilting of the frontal boundary in the vertical, and diabatic heating. It is an atmospheric response to an imbalance--and the direct thermal circulation of a frontal zone is counteracted by processes that are simultaneously trying to balance the imbalance and weaken the front. A rapidly developing frontal zone (frontogenesis) shows the atmosphere is in a significant state of imbalance--typically in response to a developing strong divergent ageostrophic jet streak and/or a DPVA associated with an incoming shortwave/potential vorticity maximum. If there are high values of moisture in the low levels (theta-e) in the warm sector--latent heat release can further destabilize the low level environment and further strengthen both frontogenesis and low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 23z surface temperatures!!!! Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 23z surface temperatures!!!! Crazy! Crazy indeed. And awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wierdo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Having been away all day, all I can say is that this is coming in much slower than the models suggested. (except the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Frontogenesis literally means "birth of a front" while frontolysis is the opposite. In a simple sense--all it means is an increasing thermal gradient with time over some horizontal distance. Typically it is measured in some form of temperature/[(distance)(time)]. A typical value may be Kelvin/[(km)(1 Hr)]. Frontogenesis can develop in a number of ways including low level convergence, horizontal deformation, tilting of the frontal boundary in the vertical, and diabatic heating. It is an atmospheric response to an imbalance--and the direct thermal circulation of a frontal zone is counteracted by processes that are simultaneously trying to balance the imbalance and weaken the front. A rapidly developing frontal zone (frontogenesis) shows the atmosphere is in a significant state of imbalance--typically in response to a developing strong divergent ageostrophic jet streak and/or a DPVA associated with an incoming shortwave/potential vorticity maximum. If there are high values of moisture in the low levels (theta-e) in the warm sector--latent heat release can further destabilize the low level environment and further strengthen both frontogenesis and low level convergence. What kind of numbers do most storms show? I know it's definitely not 1,000+ like this one, but what is normal for a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 0600 PM HEAVY SNOW SALINA 38.82N 97.62W 02/08/2011 M11.0 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 TSA reducing to 7 max......holding out for 10. I read that wrong for wed. its NEW of 3-7....thats more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Having been away all day, all I can say is that this is coming in much slower than the models suggested. (except the NAM) Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.. It has been lowering QPF each run to come more in line with all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 What kind of numbers do most storms show? I know it's definitely not 1,000+ like this one, but what is normal for a storm? I am not really sure what units SPC is using to calculate it. Based on the large numbers--it could very well be K/[(100km)(second)] where one second is (1/3600) of an hr. That is a guess--I am probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Local mets are pretty set on their snow totals... I hope they aren't all wrong. Watching returns develop in NE OK... maybe they will saturate the atmosphere around here. Still very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Local mets are pretty set on their snow totals... I hope they aren't all wrong. Watching returns develop in NE OK... maybe they will saturate the atmosphere around here. Still very dry. Yep, Joplinmet is going with 4-5" here. 3-4" down by you all I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 TWC is in tulsa its mike seidel so exciting!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I wanted to get the thoughts of everybody else on here, but I am thinking the area to watch for another swath of heavy snow accumulations in the next 4-6 hours is the area between highway 54/400 in southern Kansas (Dodge City-Wichita-Eureka) on the north and US Highway 64/412 on the south (Gage-Enid-Tulsa). Band of heavy snow has developed within the last 1-1.5 hours and has moved very little in this area. I am not sure if this is with the true arctic front, or if this might be the development SPC was talking about in their mesoscale discussion. The RUC and HRRR @ 22 and 23z have been a little south on where they intialized this area. Meanwhile, just seen a report of 14.0" snow near Lehigh in Marion co, KS. My snow forecast is too low (which is a good thing). PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 650 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0648 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSW LEHIGH 38.33N 97.33W 02/08/2011 M14.0 INCH MARION KS TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Local mets are pretty set on their snow totals... I hope they aren't all wrong. Watching returns develop in NE OK... maybe they will saturate the atmosphere around here. Still very dry. If the HRRR is correct there's gonna be a period of fairly heavy snow across this corner of MO early tomorrow. We may see some larger totals if these trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 703 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0640 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 E HOISINGTON 38.52N 98.76W 02/08/2011 M15.0 INCH BARTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER When I was putting my snow forecast together this morning, I didn't think the projected snowfall would bust higher than my forecast. This is a very impressive storm to say the least......and the night is young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 If the HRRR is correct there's gonna be a period of fairly heavy snow across this corner of MO early tomorrow. We may see some larger totals if these trends continue. That is an impressive band that sits over you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Snowing really good here now, allready got a thick coating going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0097.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 If that verifies this part of MO could see 4-6 fairly easily by the time it shifts out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 HRRR is very accurate for the most part from my *limited* experience with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Amazing storm and associated arctic air...it's currently 1F in Amarillo, TX with a wind chill of -25F. Crazy for TX in February...it's colder there at the moment than pretty much all of WI and MN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 If that verifies this part of MO could see 4-6 fairly easily by the time it shifts out of here. It appears the returns over SE KS and far N OK are increasing now. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It appears the returns over SE KS and far N OK are increasing now. Hmmm Does look impressive. The dry air over the plateau is just killing us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Does look impressive. The dry air over the plateau is just killing us right now. It's pushing hard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey guys, just pushed out fresh smartmodel runs for 01Z. Also looking at snowfall potential around the midwest, still tracking snow accumulation of around 8" in the Oklahoma City areas, 7" around the Tulsa region and out in W. OK another 4-6" inches of snow. Up in Kansas seeing an additional 1-3" for tonight to add to the impressive totals up there. Any thoughts or updates out there. You can view the data on the smartwxmodel site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 between 14 and 15 inches of snow at my parents as of 6pm in McPherson 0600 PM HEAVY SNOW MCPHERSON 38.37N 97.66W02/08/2011 M14.2 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER -since then my brother says they have had an inch or two also holy crap 0720 PM HEAVY SNOW NEWTON 38.04N 97.34W02/08/2011 E17.0 INCH HARVEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electronicmaji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 What does this mean for nwa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 between 14 and 15 inches of snow at my parents as of 6pm in McPherson -since then my brother says they have had an inch or two also holy crap Supposedly its the 7th biggest event on record for Salina and #3 for Russell so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Supposedly its the 7th biggest event on record for Salina and #3 for Russell so far. wouldnt be surprised. Since the snow began, its been snowing 1-2" per hour at my parents. started around 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.