Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The UVV's only increase with time and get pretty darn impressive in OK as we go into the overnight hours..that is a ton of ascent going through the DGZ forecast sounding for western OK at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 GFS is rolling out now. Typically the 18Z NAM starts rolling around 1940Z and the GFS around 2130Z. So 7:40 for NAM, and 9-10ish for GFS? Do you always have to put the Z at end of everything? LOL as you can tell, I am not a meteorologist, but I love the weather in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So 7:40 for NAM, and 9-10ish for GFS? Do you always have to put the Z at end of everything? LOL as you can tell, I am not a meteorologist, but I love the weather in Oklahoma. Sorry about the Z times--I am so used to it. For the 18Z guidance--that equates to 1:40 PM central, 3:30 PM central for the NAM/GFS respectively in terms of when they start running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 no..but someone in OK is going to get 12" Wouldn't surprise me, but those amounts will be exception rather than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Sorry about the Z times--I am so used to it. For the 18Z guidance--that equates to 1:40 PM central, 3:30 PM central for the NAM/GFS respectively in terms of when they start running. So, how long to they take? Don't forget to put a picture of them up! I find this so fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So, how long to they take? Don't forget to put a picture of them up! I find this so fascinating! http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks again for letting people like me talk about the weather with you!! It's awesome!! I actually applied and was going into the OU Meterology School in Norman, but ended up staying home and going to Tulsa Community College and then OSU-Tulsa. Still have OU season football tickets and only stepped in Stillwater once to graduate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So, how long to they take? Don't forget to put a picture of them up! I find this so fascinating! The NAM runs out to 84 hours. It is the mesoscale operational model run by NCEP--and typically it takes around 50 mins or so for the entire 84 hours to finish. The GFS is the NCEP global--and it runs out to 192 hours at full resolution before truncating. It takes about an hour to make it out that far. After that it runs out to 384 hours--but don't bother with it by then It is only run that far out for the global ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Why is the RUC getting stronger, it even closes off H5 for a while and has snow reaching me on the backup24 hour and now the 18hr regular RUC is coming in stronger with each run and better moisture. I am thinking I may see an inch with this or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks again for letting people like me talk about the weather with you!! It's awesome!! I actually applied and was going into the OU Meterology School in Norman, but ended up staying home and going to Tulsa Community College and then OSU-Tulsa. Still have OU season football tickets and only stepped in Stillwater once to graduate. Don't let that stop you from learning meteorology. You can learn probably most, if not all, the parts of meteorology that you need to understand and forecast the weather on a daily basis. This is a GREAT site to get started with. As well as the COMET modules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Norman is going to get a bit more than 6" IMO... I'm not too sure about that. I've noticed various models depicting a dry slot that could put a damper on things for roughly the SW quadrant of OK. Too early to say exactly who will get screwed over by this, but given images like the one below, I'm trying to temper my expectations. If this comes to fruition, we may only see good accumulating snows for around 4-5 hours. I just don't see the intensity of any band we might land in being enough to trump the significantly longer duration over N OK and KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm not too sure about that. I've noticed various models depicting a dry slot that could put a damper on things for roughly the SW quadrant of OK. Too early to say exactly who will get screwed over by this, but given images like the one below, I'm trying to temper my expectations. If this comes to fruition, we may only see good accumulating snows for around 4-5 hours. I just don't see the intensity of any band we might land in being enough to trump the significantly longer duration over N OK and KS. I see your RUC and raise you a HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I see your RUC and raise you a HRRR Good stuff, though to be fair, it still shows us SW of the "pivot point" (until mid-morning at least) and having to rely on a narrower window for the heavy stuff than N of 40. As I said earlier, I think some fortunate banding could easily put us at or above current forecasts... but for now I'm still expecting a dropoff from N to S across the OUN CWA on average. Gun to my head, I say 5-6" for OUN as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 For the record, the HRRR has been 150% spot on across the Ohio Valley with the past 3 snow makers, just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 0339 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W BURNS 38.09N 96.94W 02/08/2011 E11.0 INCH MARION KS PUBLIC PUBLIC REPORT TO KAKE OF AN ESTIMATED 11 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Good stuff, though to be fair, it still shows us SW of the "pivot point" (until mid-morning at least) and having to rely on a narrower window for the heavy stuff than N of 40. As I said earlier, I think some fortunate banding could easily put us at or above current forecasts... but for now I'm still expecting a dropoff from N to S across the OUN CWA on average. Gun to my head, I say 5-6" for OUN as of now. Agreed. Should be interesting to see how all this plays out. I hope we quickly transition from sleet to all snow faster than the last storm. 5-6" definitely sounds like a good bet for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What about for Tulsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 First report of 1 foot of snow in Great Bend, KS. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 507 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0506 PM HEAVY SNOW GREAT BEND 38.36N 98.81W 02/08/2011 E12.0 INCH BARTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 TSA multi media presentation said it!!! Thundersnow!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NWRN OK...OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...EXTREME SERN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 082150Z - 090245Z HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SRN KS...AND EXPAND INTO NWRN OK AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH N/NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. AN ELONGATED BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL LOCATED OVER SRN KS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES. STRONG LOWER-MID LEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED AT 40-50 KTS PER ICT AND DDC VWP DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL YIELD VERY HIGH LIQUID SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 20-30:1. WITH TIME...MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DCVA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. ADDITIONALLY...140+ KT UPPER JET WILL BECOME REPOSITIONED FROM ERN NM INTO WRN OK...PLACING MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND SRN KS IN THE FAVORABLE CYCLONIC EXIT REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWD EXPANSION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK. ..ROGERS.. 02/08/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The thermal gradient with this is just insane...-2 in southwest KS to mid 70's around Pecos, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What the... what is that? * said in my best Twister voice* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 KDDC 082252Z AUTO 01023G27KT 1/4SM +SN BKN006 OVC014 M19/M22 A3026 KEHA 082308Z AUTO 35014KT M18/M21 KEMP 082253Z AUTO 02011KT 1/4SM +SN OVC003 M15/M18 A3038 RMK AO2 SLP318 P0000 T11501183 KGCK 082254Z 01024G28KT 1/4SM +SN BKN008 OVC016 M19/M21 A3028 KSLN 082253Z 02012G21KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M16/M18 A3044 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What the... just crazy....thermal gradient says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 what is that? * said in my best Twister voice* 850mb frontogenesis... I don't know exactly what it is but the numbers are enormous. Keep in mind that the NWS typically would would want their contour maps to saturate, so they would make the contours go up to some really absurd value that they know will never happen. That donut hole in the middle is proof that the 850mb frontogenesis map saturates at a value of 1,000 (the inner circle has 1000 written on it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 dont think I've seen anything like this before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hey All, Sorry to intrude again. No expert here but, a great disco over on the SE forum about the storms strength (actual vs. models). Looks like a 998 pressure in this link. Hope it works out well for you & save some for us will ya! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 0527 PM HEAVY SNOW FLORENCE 38.24N 96.93W 02/08/2011 E13.0 INCH MARION KS LAW ENFORCEMENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hey All, Sorry to intrude again. No expert here but, a great disco over on the SE forum about the storms strength (actual vs. models). Looks like a 998 pressure in this link. Hope it works out well for you & save some for us will ya! http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=15 Ya its a bit stronger then both the NAM/GFS. NAM has it at 1000mb at 0z with the GFS at 1002mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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