Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z roab sounding from DDC... since 12z, mid level temps have continued to cool and looking at the meso analysis and fcst soundings, the DDC area is working with a very favorable DGZ right now and will continue to do so. 22z fcst sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z roab sounding from DDC... since 12z, mid level temps have continued to cool and looking at the meso analysis and fcst soundings, the DDC area is working with a very favorable DGZ right now and will continue to do so. 22z fcst sounding. Most of central and southern Kansas are in prime DGZ through atleast 00z. It will be interesting to see if the low level jet develops, how strong it is and what kind of banding features we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'll be lucky to see an inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 After a survey of the hi-res models this morning, it appears the NAM will likely pull off the coup against a solid consensus of global models that has held steady for almost a week. I'm always a worrier anyway, but I do think some concern is warranted now that totals S of I-40 could fail to meet expectations. Taken verbatim, the NAM/RUC still suggest warning-criteria snows for at least a couple rows of counties S of I-40, but we all know how gradients work in the real world vs. in model land. Regardless, looks like a high-end event is now a lock for WWR-TUL and possibly over to JLN, in addition to much of KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 The 16z RUC appears to be too far N and W with the precip over KS. 15z HRRR appears to be that way as well. The heaviest precip that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The 16z RUC appears to be too far N and W with the precip over KS. 15z HRRR appears to be that way as well. The heaviest precip that is. Could this be due to the fact that it is also underestimating the push of arctic air taking place right now? Or are these 2 unrelated things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Anybody have Euro amounts? I want to compare to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro at 24 hours has the H7 RH field stronger and further north then most models.. what gives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 i dont know what to think of tulsas totals fox23 guys keep decreasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro at 24 hours has the H7 RH field stronger and further north then most models.. what gives. Yeah I was curious about that as well, also has the 500 MB vorticity farther N as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 WRF-NMM(NAM) isn't doing too bad when compared to real life. Reflectivity for 18z.: Radar around 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro gives .51 to OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro gives .51 to OKC Can you do... ICT, JLN, TUL, SGF, FSM? and either FAY or XNA for Fayetteville, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow 4 degrees in central Kansas. Any word on ratios afds are going with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 After a survey of the hi-res models this morning, it appears the NAM will likely pull off the coup against a solid consensus of global models that has held steady for almost a week. I'm always a worrier anyway, but I do think some concern is warranted now that totals S of I-40 could fail to meet expectations. Taken verbatim, the NAM/RUC still suggest warning-criteria snows for at least a couple rows of counties S of I-40, but we all know how gradients work in the real world vs. in model land. Regardless, looks like a high-end event is now a lock for WWR-TUL and possibly over to JLN, in addition to much of KS. The bigger problem I see is that the event is just too quick hitting, possibly only 9 hours or so...as a result some sort of banding as has occurred in C KS will probably need to happen in C OK as well...the models show that but they tend to indicate it a bit north west of you more across Enid to Ponca City or so...I still think you'd see 4-5 inches though at worst right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Can you do... ICT, JLN, TUL, SGF, FSM? and either FAY or XNA for Fayetteville, AR. JLN - .33 ICT - .46 TUL - .44 FSM - .38 FAY - .43 SGF - .28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 insane thermal gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 .44 i hate this storm thats nothing!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 JLN - .33 ICT - .46 TUL - .44 FSM - .38 FAY - .43 SGF - .28 Pretty steady when compared to last night. Thanks.. and these were amounts from last night from Thundersnow: Euro QPF OKC-.48" TUL- .44" ICT- .49" FSM- .39" WWR- .49" FDR- .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The simulated radar from the NMM at 12Z tomorrow sort of agrees with an intense band near that region...these NW flow events really need some sort of dynamics to fuel them as they don't have much ability to slow down or tap into the Gulf like a west-east moving wave or a closed low might...the only NW flow event that I know of which dropped big snows in OK was 2/23/03 and that was a result of insane banding where PNC saw 15 inches in 4 hours and Bartlesville got 4 inches in one hour at one point....the forecasts by the way going into that morning were 3-6 inches if I remember correctly...that storm also was quite a bit south of where it was predicted as most models showed the heaviest snow along a Hutchinson-Emporia line the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The bigger problem I see is that the event is just too quick hitting, possibly only 9 hours or so...as a result some sort of banding as has occurred in C KS will probably need to happen in C OK as well...the models show that but they tend to indicate it a bit north west of you more across Enid to Ponca City or so...I still think you'd see 4-5 inches though at worst right now. I agree that the problem is mainly one of duration. The GFS, with its more generous totals to the S, had consistently shown a solid 15- to 18-hour window of at least moderate precipitation. The RUC holds off on anything substantial until 06-09z and then wants to shove it out very quickly after 15z. The precipitation shield looks to re-orient from the current WSW-ENE band to more of a N-S one as we go into the morning hours, such that at a given longitude (W of I-35 anyway), the snow will start earlier the farther N you are, but end at about the same time. Of course, mesoscale banding will play a large role as well, and who exactly that benefits won't be clear until it's already happening. Should be happy with 4-5" given this is central OK, but I won't lie and pretend it doesn't irk me to see a lot of the jackpot areas from last week cash in on this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 .44 i hate this storm thats nothing!!!!! Ratios will be 15:1-20:1, so that actually is something... Anyway, here are the latest Hi-Res runs through hour 36. They show considerably more than .44" QPF. ARW: NMM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I agree that the problem is mainly one of duration. The GFS, with its more generous totals to the S, had consistently shown a solid 15- to 18-hour window of at least moderate precipitation. The RUC holds off on anything substantial until 06-09z and then wants to shove it out very quickly after 15z. The precipitation shield looks to re-orient from the current WSW-ENE band to more of a N-S one as we go into the morning hours, such that at a given longitude (W of I-35 anyway), the snow will start earlier the farther N you are, but end at about the same time. Of course, mesoscale banding will play a large role as well, and who exactly that benefits won't be clear until it's already happening. Should be happy with 4-5" given this is central OK, but I won't lie and pretend it doesn't irk me to see a lot of the jackpot areas from last week cash in on this one too. Always seems to come out farther N than the models think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I agree that the problem is mainly one of duration. The GFS, with its more generous totals to the S, had consistently shown a solid 15- to 18-hour window of at least moderate precipitation. The RUC holds off on anything substantial until 06-09z and then wants to shove it out very quickly after 15z. The precipitation shield looks to re-orient from the current WSW-ENE band to more of a N-S one as we go into the morning hours, such that at a given longitude (W of I-35 anyway), the snow will start earlier the farther N you are, but end at about the same time. Of course, mesoscale banding will play a large role as well, and who exactly that benefits won't be clear until it's already happening. Should be happy with 4-5" given this is central OK, but I won't lie and pretend it doesn't irk me to see a lot of the jackpot areas from last week cash in on this one too. One of the NWS forecasters or maybe someone on stormtrack.org said a day or so ago he was suspicious of such a long duration event given NW flow and he was exactly right...unlike 1/27/00 or 1/6/88 which was a west-east moving 500mb wave this one is not...I actually did a bit of research when I was in OK and found as I posted earlier only 2/23/03 produced heavy snows with a ridge along the West Coast...all other open waves that produced relatively heavy snows for OK came with zonal or nearl zonal flow along and off the West Coast...the 1/29 storm last winter sort of did have ridging out west but it was progressive narrow ridge axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 One of the NWS forecasters or maybe someone on stormtrack.org said a day or so ago he was suspicious of such a long duration event given NW flow and he was exactly right...unlike 1/27/00 or 1/6/88 which was a west-east moving 500mb wave this one is not...I actually did a bit of research when I was in OK and found as I posted earlier only 2/23/03 produced heavy snows with a ridge along the West Coast...all other open waves that produced relatively heavy snows for OK came with zonal or nearl zonal flow along and off the West Coast...the 1/29 storm last winter sort of did have ridging out west but it was progressive narrow ridge axis. Interesting about the historical events... yeah, I've been a bit suspicious of this event all along given the H5 pattern over North America. Seems like it would be hard to squeeze widespread high-end totals out of a wave diving in from the NNW, though banding could certainly accomplish it for more isolated areas/swaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like Tulsa is playing with their zones again. I've only seen a few flurries despite the band increasing over me, too dry? And reports of around 6" in central KS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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