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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Fall 2011


JoMo

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12z roab sounding from DDC...

since 12z, mid level temps have continued to cool and looking at the meso analysis and fcst soundings, the DDC area is working with a very favorable DGZ right now and will continue to do so.

22z fcst sounding.

Most of central and southern Kansas are in prime DGZ through atleast 00z. It will be interesting to see if the low level jet develops, how strong it is and what kind of banding features we see.

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After a survey of the hi-res models this morning, it appears the NAM will likely pull off the coup against a solid consensus of global models that has held steady for almost a week. I'm always a worrier anyway, but I do think some concern is warranted now that totals S of I-40 could fail to meet expectations. Taken verbatim, the NAM/RUC still suggest warning-criteria snows for at least a couple rows of counties S of I-40, but we all know how gradients work in the real world vs. in model land. Regardless, looks like a high-end event is now a lock for WWR-TUL and possibly over to JLN, in addition to much of KS.

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The 16z RUC appears to be too far N and W with the precip over KS. 15z HRRR appears to be that way as well.

The heaviest precip that is.

Could this be due to the fact that it is also underestimating the push of arctic air taking place right now? Or are these 2 unrelated things?

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After a survey of the hi-res models this morning, it appears the NAM will likely pull off the coup against a solid consensus of global models that has held steady for almost a week. I'm always a worrier anyway, but I do think some concern is warranted now that totals S of I-40 could fail to meet expectations. Taken verbatim, the NAM/RUC still suggest warning-criteria snows for at least a couple rows of counties S of I-40, but we all know how gradients work in the real world vs. in model land. Regardless, looks like a high-end event is now a lock for WWR-TUL and possibly over to JLN, in addition to much of KS.

The bigger problem I see is that the event is just too quick hitting, possibly only 9 hours or so...as a result some sort of banding as has occurred in C KS will probably need to happen in C OK as well...the models show that but they tend to indicate it a bit north west of you more across Enid to Ponca City or so...I still think you'd see 4-5 inches though at worst right now.

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JLN - .33

ICT - .46

TUL - .44

FSM - .38

FAY - .43

SGF - .28

Pretty steady when compared to last night.

Thanks.. and these were amounts from last night from Thundersnow:

Euro QPF

OKC-.48"

TUL- .44"

ICT- .49"

FSM- .39"

WWR- .49"

FDR- .50"

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The simulated radar from the NMM at 12Z tomorrow sort of agrees with an intense band near that region...these NW flow events really need some sort of dynamics to fuel them as they don't have much ability to slow down or tap into the Gulf like a west-east moving wave or a closed low might...the only NW flow event that I know of which dropped big snows in OK was 2/23/03 and that was a result of insane banding where PNC saw 15 inches in 4 hours and Bartlesville got 4 inches in one hour at one point....the forecasts by the way going into that morning were 3-6 inches if I remember correctly...that storm also was quite a bit south of where it was predicted as most models showed the heaviest snow along a Hutchinson-Emporia line the day before.

hiresw_ref_024l.gif

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The bigger problem I see is that the event is just too quick hitting, possibly only 9 hours or so...as a result some sort of banding as has occurred in C KS will probably need to happen in C OK as well...the models show that but they tend to indicate it a bit north west of you more across Enid to Ponca City or so...I still think you'd see 4-5 inches though at worst right now.

I agree that the problem is mainly one of duration. The GFS, with its more generous totals to the S, had consistently shown a solid 15- to 18-hour window of at least moderate precipitation. The RUC holds off on anything substantial until 06-09z and then wants to shove it out very quickly after 15z. The precipitation shield looks to re-orient from the current WSW-ENE band to more of a N-S one as we go into the morning hours, such that at a given longitude (W of I-35 anyway), the snow will start earlier the farther N you are, but end at about the same time.

Of course, mesoscale banding will play a large role as well, and who exactly that benefits won't be clear until it's already happening.

Should be happy with 4-5" given this is central OK, but I won't lie and pretend it doesn't irk me to see a lot of the jackpot areas from last week cash in on this one too. :P

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I agree that the problem is mainly one of duration. The GFS, with its more generous totals to the S, had consistently shown a solid 15- to 18-hour window of at least moderate precipitation. The RUC holds off on anything substantial until 06-09z and then wants to shove it out very quickly after 15z. The precipitation shield looks to re-orient from the current WSW-ENE band to more of a N-S one as we go into the morning hours, such that at a given longitude (W of I-35 anyway), the snow will start earlier the farther N you are, but end at about the same time.

Of course, mesoscale banding will play a large role as well, and who exactly that benefits won't be clear until it's already happening.

Should be happy with 4-5" given this is central OK, but I won't lie and pretend it doesn't irk me to see a lot of the jackpot areas from last week cash in on this one too. :P

Always seems to come out farther N than the models think.

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I agree that the problem is mainly one of duration. The GFS, with its more generous totals to the S, had consistently shown a solid 15- to 18-hour window of at least moderate precipitation. The RUC holds off on anything substantial until 06-09z and then wants to shove it out very quickly after 15z. The precipitation shield looks to re-orient from the current WSW-ENE band to more of a N-S one as we go into the morning hours, such that at a given longitude (W of I-35 anyway), the snow will start earlier the farther N you are, but end at about the same time.

Of course, mesoscale banding will play a large role as well, and who exactly that benefits won't be clear until it's already happening.

Should be happy with 4-5" given this is central OK, but I won't lie and pretend it doesn't irk me to see a lot of the jackpot areas from last week cash in on this one too. :P

One of the NWS forecasters or maybe someone on stormtrack.org said a day or so ago he was suspicious of such a long duration event given NW flow and he was exactly right...unlike 1/27/00 or 1/6/88 which was a west-east moving 500mb wave this one is not...I actually did a bit of research when I was in OK and found as I posted earlier only 2/23/03 produced heavy snows with a ridge along the West Coast...all other open waves that produced relatively heavy snows for OK came with zonal or nearl zonal flow along and off the West Coast...the 1/29 storm last winter sort of did have ridging out west but it was progressive narrow ridge axis.

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One of the NWS forecasters or maybe someone on stormtrack.org said a day or so ago he was suspicious of such a long duration event given NW flow and he was exactly right...unlike 1/27/00 or 1/6/88 which was a west-east moving 500mb wave this one is not...I actually did a bit of research when I was in OK and found as I posted earlier only 2/23/03 produced heavy snows with a ridge along the West Coast...all other open waves that produced relatively heavy snows for OK came with zonal or nearl zonal flow along and off the West Coast...the 1/29 storm last winter sort of did have ridging out west but it was progressive narrow ridge axis.

Interesting about the historical events... yeah, I've been a bit suspicious of this event all along given the H5 pattern over North America. Seems like it would be hard to squeeze widespread high-end totals out of a wave diving in from the NNW, though banding could certainly accomplish it for more isolated areas/swaths.

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