ARyan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It's possible it's right, but based on previous experience with the NAM, it's very hit and miss. Maybe the possible convective instability it is show is effecting it's forecast via convective feedback? However, it is sticking to it's solution and the GFS is sticking to it's solution. Convective feedback issues are caused by errors in the model calculations that grow larger as time goes on. That shouldn't be confused by actual convection. Also to note that the NAM is a very sensitive model and prone to errors during very dynamic situations like this. If it continues to be an outlier, I would be cautious when using it in a forecast. However, it's not a significant outlier like it was for the last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The 0z NAM is showing some insane through the roof UVV's in parts of OK with this system. There is going to be some serious fronto banding going on with this late tomorrow night and into the morning hours. The model is not going to be able to fully hint at this in the 6hr qpf fields that its showing and even though this run of the NAM is only spitting out .50" or so liquid...whoever gets under these 2"/hr bands is going to do very well and make a run at 12" or more. There is also going to be some good bands up in KS during the day tomorrow and into the evening. Another thing to note is the impressive LLJ feeding into this thing, up to 50kts, snow ratios are going to be fairly decent too so that will help it stack up nicely. I also wouldn't rule out some TSSN in the more intense bands during the overnight hours tomorrow into the morning. I certainly wouldn't mind being in central OK on over to western AR for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 The 0z NAM is showing some insane through the roof UVV's in parts of OK with this system. There is going to be some serious fronto banding going on with this late tomorrow night and into the morning hours. The model is not going to be able to fully hint at this in the 6hr qpf fields that its showing and even though this run of the NAM is only spitting out .50" or so liquid...whoever gets under these 2"/hr bands is going to do very well and make a run at 12" or more. There is also going to be some good bands up in KS during the day tomorrow and into the evening. Another thing to note is the impressive LLJ feeding into this thing, up to 50kts, snow ratios are going to be fairly decent too so that will help it stack up nicely. I also wouldn't rule out some TSSN in the more intense bands during the overnight hours tomorrow into the morning. I certainly wouldn't mind being in central OK on over to western AR for this event. That would be impressive, if it happens. The NAM and GFS are very far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That would be impressive, if it happens. The NAM and GFS are very far apart. true, GFS is further south and weaker with everything. It will be interesting to watch unfold. FWIW..the RUC is closing off the H5 low by 15z tomorrow...and the NAM/GFS dont close it off at all, just keep it as an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 true, GFS is further south and weaker with everything. It will be interesting to watch unfold. FWIW..the RUC is closing off the H5 low by 15z tomorrow...and the NAM/GFS dont close it off at all, just keep it as an open wave. Interesting. Euro looks like the best precip would be south of a Tulsa/Fort Smith line. But I don't have QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 already very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro QPF OKC-.48" TUL- .44" ICT- .49" FSM- .39" WWR- .49" FDR- .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro QPF OKC-.48" TUL- .44" ICT- .49" FSM- .39" WWR- .49" FDR- .50" These were the ones from the 12z from MoWeatherguy, so it's definitely trended downward some. 12z Euro: JLN - .29 FAY - .47 TUL - .60 OKC - .55 OUN - .54 ICT - .50 FSM - .46 SGF - .24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro QPF OKC-.48" TUL- .44" ICT- .49" FSM- .39" WWR- .49" FDR- .50" Euro still playing down the role of steady Eddie. If these QPF forecasts verify, all will see warning criteria snow, especially with 13-17:1 snow-liquid ratios. What amazes me about this system compared to any system we have had this winter, is the standoff that continues between the GFS and NAM, with respect to strength of the shortwave. It will be extremely interesting to see what model is right, and I am glad I have a ringside seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Euro still playing down the role of steady Eddie. If these QPF forecasts verify, all will see warning criteria snow, especially with 13-17:1 snow-liquid ratios. What amazes me about this system compared to any system we have had this winter, is the standoff that continues between the GFS and NAM, with respect to strength of the shortwave. It will be extremely interesting to see what model is right, and I am glad I have a ringside seat. Right there with you! I'll be up late tomorrow night watching this thing, especially since it looks like we're in for an extended thaw afterwards. Thundersnow, thanks for your input and the Euro QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 24hr RUC is closing off the H5 low during the morning and into the afternoon hours tomorrow over CO but then it opens back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just posted projected snowfall outputs based on SmartModel output for midwest and southern states, under the link Feb 9-11 Smart SnowFall. http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 already starting to get some nice banding along and north of the artic front, in southern NE/northern KS. geez, HLC is sitting at 12 degrees with a 33kt gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Zone forecast for Barry county MO indicates total snowfall accumulation of 4-6". I just don't see that happening. We will be lucky to get 2". Btw, is the NWS SGF site working for anyone? It has been down for me all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 For Kansas, this storm will be a lot like last week's powerhouse, with the exception of slightly lighter winds and higher snow accumulations. The snow has started here in Wichita with roughly 1/2" on the ground already. Meanwhile, in northwest Kansas, Goodland has almost 5 inches on the ground and picked 2 of those up in one hour's time. NWS offices pulled the trigger on winter storm warnings (different criteria in Kansas and Missouri than in Oklahoma), and my feeling is that area will expand through the day once the banding features are zeroed in on and as nowcasting this event continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just uploaded forecasted snowfall predictions and 13Z model output, click on Feb 9-11 Snowfall for forecasted snow amounts http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 NWS TOC Operational Status Message Tue Feb 8 13:40:38 2011 GMT NOXX01 KWBC 081331NIDS CONTINUES TO WORK ON FILESERVER ISSUES AT THE CENTRAL REGION HEADQUARTERS SITE. NIDS IS RESTORING ALL WFO PAGES FROM BACKUP. NIDS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY ON THE FAILED FILESERVER AS WELL. MORE UPDATES WILL SOON FOLLOW.NWSTG TECH CONTROLKWBC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just uploaded forecasted snowfall predictions and 13Z model output, click on Feb 9-11 Snowfall for forecasted snow amounts http://smartwxmodel.net we better get more than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 NAM says Kansas wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Through 30, GFS has came back north a bit and is producing more precip, especially south. OKC looks to get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity over the last hour and a half. I would estimate we have close to 1.5" on the ground. Interesting to note that the GFS and NAM are almost consistent in the amount of snowfall we'll receive here in Wichita (GFS @ 06z had 9.3", NAM @ 12z has 10.2"), it'll definitely be interesting to see if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 GFS came in with a bit more precip down south: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0095.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Snow has picked up in intensity over the last hour and a half. I would estimate we have close to 1.5" on the ground. Interesting to note that the GFS and NAM are almost consistent in the amount of snowfall we'll receive here in Wichita (GFS @ 06z had 9.3", NAM @ 12z has 10.2"), it'll definitely be interesting to see if it happens. Looks like you are solidly in that band, what size are the flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like you are solidly in that band, what size are the flakes? Yeah...it has been interesting to see that band slowly drift south and intensify as the lift continues to increase. As for flake size, I would say they are about quarter size now that we are in one of the bands. When the snow was lighter, the flakes were much smaller and looked like dendrites or some sort of graupel. It is a very fluffy snow and I couldn't accurately guess the snow:liquid in that snow since I haven't made it outside yet. That is coming though, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 KDDC 081618Z AUTO 04022G31KT 1/4SM +SN VV004 M16/M18 A3023 KHLC 081605Z AUTO 03014KT 1/4SM +SN BKN001 BKN005 OVC009 M17/M20 A3044 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0095.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN KS...SE CO...NE NM...OK PANHANDLE...NW TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081611Z - 082215Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN KS. FURTHER WEST...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NE NM...THE NW TX PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM NEAR GOODLAND AND DODGE CITY KANSAS EWD TO SALINA AND WICHITA KS LOCATED ALONG A ZONE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SLAB OF ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND SAG SLOWLY SWD THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SRN KS NEAR THE OK STATE-LINE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...SFC TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 F RANGE. FURTHER TO THE WEST... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXISTS FROM NEAR TRINIDAD EWD TO NEAR LAMAR CO. THIS BAND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN SE CO. THIS VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD AIR ADVECTS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NE NM...THE NW TX PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE WITH THE START TIME ESTIMATED IN THE 19Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME. ..BROYLES.. 02/08/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah...it has been interesting to see that band slowly drift south and intensify as the lift continues to increase. As for flake size, I would say they are about quarter size now that we are in one of the bands. When the snow was lighter, the flakes were much smaller and looked like dendrites or some sort of graupel. It is a very fluffy snow and I couldn't accurately guess the snow:liquid in that snow since I haven't made it outside yet. That is coming though, trust me. There has to be a pretty good ratio going. Latest mesoanalysis shows-12 at 700 MB and -23 at 500 MB over your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1038 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS STATE LINE LATE THIS MORNING. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAISE SNOW TOTALS BY 1-2 INCHES. REMAINDER OF LONGER TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF A TULSA...FORT SMITH LINE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR INITIAL MIX. SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS FINE-SCALE MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SIGNALS FOR THUNDER SLEET NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF FRONT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TO MID-EVENING BEFORE COMMENCEMENT OF HEAVY SNOW. DID NOT ALTER SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCHES STILL APPEAR LIKELY...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10+ INCHES STILL APPEARING POSSIBLE IN ANY BANDED STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WHAT IS A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1026 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .UPDATE... WE ISSUED A UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...AS SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND STRETCHES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER OF -10C TO -15C WAS CO-LOCATED WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER BAND. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT NOT LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM BY ANY MEANS. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO KANSAS THUS SENDING WIND CHILL READINGS WELL BELOW ZERO. SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 6-11" IN CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AMOUNTS OF 5-7" IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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