FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Major qpf adjustment downward for Tn NC and most of SC on this run. The northern stream acts as a supressor and theres a new shortwave out west that may interfere with what once was a lone shortwave. As Larry pointed out, the temps are nothing like they were progged to be a few days ago after the storm. Ho-hum cold air, average really in its wake. The big winners are Ark, Ok, Ms, La, Ala and part of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 not nearly as strong as it's earlier runs...imo it looks a lot like the 0z gfs w/ 2m temps and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Major qpf adjustment downward for Tn NC and most of SC on this run. The northern stream acts as a supressor and theres a new shortwave out west that may interfere with what once was a lone shortwave. As Larry pointed out, the temps are nothing like they were progged to be a few days ago after the storm. Ho-hum cold air, average really in its wake. The big winners are Ark, Ok, Ms, La, Ala and part of GA. Florence does get around an inch of qpf, I think. Almost an inch less for both of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not as impressive a Euro run for GSP to CLT to RDU, but all in all, I'd rather have the colder look right now and sacrifice the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QPF for ATL? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 QPF is kind of mute at this point anyways, right? :popcorn:Let's get the track and temperature set first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Verbatim, its flurries for northern NC and most of VA except coastal VA. As well as northern , NE GA area. Probably only flurries here as well, mabye an inch or two max. Def. supressed, strung out, and other s/w in the flow that mess up the system. Suprise though, it bombs this storm out to 940's northeast of Maine.....an obvious bias of the Euro in eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not as impressive a Euro run for GSP to CLT to RDU, but all in all, I'd rather have the colder look right now and sacrifice the QPF. yeah, it wouldve been disastrous to start the NW trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Major qpf adjustment downward for Tn NC and most of SC on this run. The northern stream acts as a supressor and theres a new shortwave out west that may interfere with what once was a lone shortwave. As Larry pointed out, the temps are nothing like they were progged to be a few days ago after the storm. Ho-hum cold air, average really in its wake. The big winners are Ark, Ok, Ms, La, Ala and part of GA. I'm really ok with that... This has severely alleviated my concerns that this was going to come further inland. I think we are exactly where we want to be 4-5 days out at this point. It doesn't look pretty, but the Euro had quite a few runs that suppressed the early January snowstorm... and I don't think that turned out too badly for most folks in the SE. Sure there is a chance it never comes back north, but considering that all the models had this system and the trends this year, I'd say thats more unlikely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Major qpf adjustment downward for Tn NC and most of SC on this run. The northern stream acts as a supressor and theres a new shortwave out west that may interfere with what once was a lone shortwave. As Larry pointed out, the temps are nothing like they were progged to be a few days ago after the storm. Ho-hum cold air, average really in its wake. The big winners are Ark, Ok, Ms, La, Ala and part of GA. With this storm still being a long ways out, I would rather see this trend at the moment. Don't you agree? I THINK our Christmas storm had this look to it where we started to lose it in this timeframe? Thoughts? Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Latest Euro run looks good to me. MS,AL,GA looking good if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Going to bed happy that we are right where we want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Verbatim, its flurries for northern NC and most of VA except coastal VA. As well as northern , NE GA area. Probably only flurries here as well, mabye an inch or two max. Def. supressed, strung out, and other s/w in the flow that mess up the system. Suprise though, it bombs this storm out to 940's northeast of Maine.....an obvious bias of the Euro in eastern Canada. It will come back north on later runs. Hasn't the Euro been having trouble keeping storms at this range? I don't really have a feel for this one yet overall but doubt the suppressed look of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm really ok with that... This has severely alleviated my concerns that this was going to come further inland. I think we are exactly where we want to be 4-5 days out at this point. It doesn't look pretty, but the Euro had quite a few runs that suppressed the early January snowstorm... and I don't think that turned out too badly for most folks in the SE. Sure there is a chance it never comes back north, but considering that all the models had this system and the trends this year, I'd say thats more unlikely than not. I just don't like the looks of the next s/w behind it in the rockies, or how close the one in the Lakes gets to it, to its north. Could be an error though, since the Euro has a problem with some s/w it seems. But your right, Its probably better to have a system south of you than right next to you. Time will tell. One of the things I notice is how long the Euro lolligags around in Coloroado and northern New Mexico. It looks incredibly sharp and good there, but then gets sort of squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Huge northwest trends for the past two weeks on the models before today, and now the southeast trend is here. I know there are good physics attached to each scenario. Just shows how tough a Nina pattern can be. Things have to be just right for the northern TN Valley. Earlier today, I would have put good money on a strong slp going inland. Looks much less likely after tonight's runs, and thus, TN snow chances are very slim at this point based on tonight's model runs. The system, though, over the next 48 hours looks much more interesting. Still would not be surprised to see the Thursday system jog well to the north based on recent trends. Time will tell. The Euro ensembles certainly hinted at tonight's supression - yesterday. It will be interesting to see if they are in line w/ the operational, are east, or are west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Alright, so ECMWF is trending towards GFS. Now, the GFS will likely step on board and begin to look like the 12z Euro run from earlier today. These trends are on our side I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro text output for select locations... PGV 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 00Z 10-FEB 5.8 -1.5 1018 67 38 0.00 559 545 THU 06Z 10-FEB 4.5 1.3 1013 93 94 0.08 555 545 THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.1 -3.6 1013 96 91 0.62 552 542 THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.5 -8.5 1018 49 7 0.06 550 536 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -2.2 -6.7 1022 41 5 0.00 553 536 RDU THU 00Z 10-FEB 4.4 -2.7 1017 68 36 0.00 557 543 THU 06Z 10-FEB 3.6 -2.1 1014 81 99 0.05 552 541 THU 12Z 10-FEB -0.1 -5.6 1015 77 82 0.29 548 536 THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.5 -8.0 1019 30 3 0.00 548 533 GSO THU 00Z 10-FEB 2.3 -3.7 1016 68 35 0.00 554 541 THU 06Z 10-FEB 1.5 -3.6 1015 82 96 0.03 549 538 THU 12Z 10-FEB -2.0 -7.2 1017 56 74 0.11 544 531 THU 18Z 10-FEB 1.4 -7.7 1020 27 4 0.00 547 532 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -4.0 -7.9 1021 55 9 0.00 550 533 CLT THU 00Z 10-FEB 4.8 -2.0 1015 71 59 0.00 556 544 THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.7 -3.2 1014 85 98 0.04 552 540 THU 12Z 10-FEB -1.0 -6.0 1016 83 67 0.14 546 533 THU 18Z 10-FEB 3.4 -5.4 1019 31 4 0.00 551 536 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -2.2 -5.9 1021 57 7 0.00 553 536 CAE THU 00Z 10-FEB 8.3 0.8 1015 71 93 0.00 562 549 THU 06Z 10-FEB 6.2 -1.3 1013 93 100 0.17 557 546 THU 12Z 10-FEB 2.1 -3.5 1015 95 68 0.44 552 540 THU 18Z 10-FEB 6.7 -3.7 1019 42 2 0.00 557 542 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 0.5 -3.8 1021 52 4 0.00 557 540 GSP THU 00Z 10-FEB 4.8 -2.1 1015 69 80 0.00 556 544 THU 06Z 10-FEB 1.7 -3.5 1015 87 99 0.07 551 539 THU 12Z 10-FEB -1.4 -4.6 1017 62 48 0.09 546 533 THU 18Z 10-FEB 4.7 -4.9 1019 31 4 0.00 553 537 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 1.2 -5.0 1021 52 8 0.00 553 536 ATL WED 18Z 09-FEB 9.2 -0.8 1020 42 65 0.00 562 546 THU 00Z 10-FEB 7.2 -0.3 1014 59 87 0.01 559 547 THU 06Z 10-FEB 1.1 -3.0 1016 94 99 0.22 555 542 THU 12Z 10-FEB -3.0 -4.1 1020 75 14 0.06 552 537 THU 18Z 10-FEB 4.0 -2.1 1021 36 3 0.00 558 541 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -0.2 -2.7 1021 52 4 0.00 556 539 Major cut in QPF for all stations, but at this range given the other guidance is this a bad thing? This is mostly SN folks, QPF should be lighter in that regard, but is the EC loosing another solution in the 5 day only to bring back the original in the short term, albeit to a less extreme; who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What are everyone's thoughts on the Monday system for MS/AL/GA. Maybe accumulating snow ? I'm thinking temps may be too warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Huge northwest trends for the past two weeks on the models before today, and now the southeast trend is here. I know there are good physics attached to each scenario. Just shows how tough a Nina pattern can be. Things have to be just right for the northern TN Valley. Earlier today, I would have put good money on a strong slp going inland. Looks much less likely after tonight's runs, and thus, TN snow chances are very slim at this point based on tonight's model runs. The system, though, over the next 48 hours looks much more interesting. Still would not be surprised to see the Thursday system jog well to the north based on recent trends. Time will tell. The Euro ensembles certainly hinted at that yesterday. It will be interesting to see if they are in line w/ the operational, are east, or are west. Don't know how you can say very slim...maybe for a huge snow, but the QPF for 2-4 inches is there still for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We've seen this shift south with the last 3 model suite runs...we are likely at the end of the line for that trend. Bigger questions to me are how far back to the NW does this trend, and how strong is the wave going to be (how moist). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Don't know how you can say very slim...maybe for a huge snow, but the QPF for 2-4 inches is there still for most of the state. Basing that on the trend. KTRI was @ .7 at 0z yesterday. So yes, if the trend continues, we may just be overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am not the least bit worried yet. I would rather this system trend south for now. If I cannot get it, I would rather "keep it in the Family" and let our southern brothers and sisters cash in. Columbia, SC looks to be the winner tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I just don't like the looks of the next s/w behind it in the rockies, or how close the one in the Lakes gets to it, to its north. Could be an error though, since the Euro has a problem with some s/w it seems. But your right, Its probably better to have a system south of you than right next to you. Time will tell. One of the things I notice is how long the Euro lolligags around in Coloroado and northern New Mexico. It looks incredibly sharp and good there, but then gets sort of squashed. GGEM did the same thing. It digs the wave hard, then it just comes to a halt in Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We've seen this shift south with the last 3 model suite runs...we are likely at the end of the line for that trend. Bigger questions to me are how far back to the NW does this trend, and how strong is the wave going to be (how moist). I'm hoping the ensembles my give us a clue as to whether the southeast trend has stopped or not. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am not the least bit worried yet. I would rather this system trend south for now. If I cannot get it, I would rather "keep it in the Family" and let our southern brothers and sisters cash in. Columbia, SC looks to be the winner tonight? I agree. I'm rooting for someone in the south to get a huge snow out of this. Of course I would like to get snow also, but if I don't it's still been one of the most incredible winters ever here so can't complain if we dont get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm hoping the ensembles my give us a clue as to whether the southeast trend has stopped or not. Good point. Don't know what others have experienced, but I rarely, if ever, have seen the ensemble means north of the Op runs. Seems like they are always south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I just don't like the looks of the next s/w behind it in the rockies, or how close the one in the Lakes gets to it, to its north. Could be an error though, since the Euro has a problem with some s/w it seems. But your right, Its probably better to have a system south of you than right next to you. Time will tell. One of the things I notice is how long the Euro lolligags around in Coloroado and northern New Mexico. It looks incredibly sharp and good there, but then gets sort of squashed. We'll see... we had a similar problem with the January system, but this is a much larger shortwave. I think a lot how how the shortwave dampens out has to do with the +PNA ridge finally being cut down to size. How quickly this happens might give us a clue as to how far south our s/w can dig. The further south, the more amplified and further north the solution. Since we are still 4-5 days out, I'm not gonna sweat it at this point. The ECWMF hasn't been showing a consistent southward trend (as 12z was further north than the 00z run last night) so I'm not yet convinced that things will continue to trend southward. We've seen this shift south with the last 3 model suite runs...we are likely at the end of the line for that trend. Bigger questions to me are how far back to the NW does this trend, and how strong is the wave going to be (how moist). Well the Euro actually went further north at 12z.... The models as a whole went south at 00z, but there really hasn't been a consistent trend in any one direction. I'll only start getting worried when the models start to make the surface low completely disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Ah, so finally some solutions not going our way...imagine that I'm not worried yet, like most of you we've all been down this road before. 0z spits out something we don't like after giving us pretty much wxporn for previous runs. Nothing to freak out over folks, we'll see some different solutions with tomorrow's 0z suite or even before that. The fact that I'm still in the business for SN even with a "bad" run....no complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the Euro actually went further north at 12z.... The models as a whole went south at 00z, but there really hasn't been a consistent trend in any one direction. I'll only start getting worried when the models start to make the surface low completely disappear. You're right on the Euro at 12z, but the GGEM and UKMet both went south. GFS was the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am not the least bit worried yet. I would rather this system trend south for now. If I cannot get it, I would rather "keep it in the Family" and let our southern brothers and sisters cash in. Columbia, SC looks to be the winner tonight? Being from Columbia, I could care less if we were the winner tonight or not. I just want to be at least in the "zone" for some snow. lol I just there was a way we all could get pounded, everyone in the SE, all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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