Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hmm, I was looking at the Canadian and it looks like a good part of the metro ATL would be rain. Thats the Monday system you are looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dang, the Canadian is very close, but no cigar for our area this run. Typical on the line winter wx situation for the CAE as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Been out all day, and haven't had a chance to analyze the models, so how is Asheville, NC looking for snow accumulation wise? Too early to really peg down any sort of accumulations... but things have generally trended southward with the 00z suite, which in my opinion is a good sign for most in the southeast, including Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thats the Monday system you are looking at? No, the Canadian. for the Wed-Thurs storm. Appears to me like the Atlanta airport is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 No, the Canadian. for the Wed-Thurs storm. Appears to me like the Atlanta airport is mostly rain. Its 100+ hours out, and that model is pretty coarse anyways. No need to be real worried this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Classic +IP pixel over Southern Pines, where is eyewall at, he would be in the typical failboat mentality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Its 100+ hours out, and that model is pretty coarse anyways. No need to be real worried this far out Yeah, true. I just like for the rain/snow line to be a little further south. It'd be nice to be safely in the snow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, true. I just like for the rain/snow line to be a little further south. It'd be nice to be safely in the snow zone. I'm kinda in the same boat as you. I won't get too worried unless we look warm inside 72 hours. As long as the potential for snow is there I'm happy til then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z UKMET severely suppressed on Meteociel C FL for the SE win dominant southern stream Surprised the UKMet is not getting more attention. I mean, it is severely supressed. I don't think that can be overlooked. Plus, the GGEM tends to be on the NW side of the envelope. I would be shocked if the Euro is not further south tonight. I will say though that on the Christmas storm, the UKMet was too far south with its track in the days leading up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Too early to really peg down any sort of accumulations... but things have generally trended southward with the 00z suite, which in my opinion is a good sign for most in the southeast, including Asheville. Alright, that's good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprised the UKMet is not getting more attention. I mean, it is severely supressed. I don't think that can be overlooked. Plus, the GGEM tends to be on the NW side of the envelope. I would be shocked if the Euro is not further south tonight. I will say though that on the Christmas storm, the UKMet was too far south with its track in the days leading up to the event. Yea based how far south the UKMET has gone, I think the EURO is going to be further south than the 12z run. And honestly, I think thats a good thing for most people in the SE, since the 12z run was really only great for those in WNC for the most part, with a lot of other locations going above freezing for a time at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Surprised the UKMet is not getting more attention. I mean, it is severely supressed. I don't think that can be overlooked. Plus, the GGEM tends to be on the NW side of the envelope. I would be shocked if the Euro is not further south tonight. I will say though that on the Christmas storm, the UKMet was too far south with its track in the days leading up to the event. Google "UKMET suppressed bias" and come back with that. The HPC actually mentions it from time to time. With a phasing of the northern and southern streams, the UKMET is a great model as it resolves the interaction between the streams better than the GFS, but with just a southern parcel, it is known at this range, >72hrs, to have a flat and suppressed bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, almost showtime with the final act tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, almost showtime with the final act tonight. Yep Foothills you got pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Google "UKMET suppressed bias" and come back with that. The HPC actually mentions it from time to time. With a phasing of the northern and southern streams, the UKMET is a great model as it resolves the interaction between the streams better than the GFS, but with just a southern parcel, it is known at this range, >72hrs, to have a flat and suppressed bias. Thanks, didn't know that, although like I said, it was too far south with the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 "TIC-TOCK" says the Doc, when looking at da clock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The Euro is putting down a 2 to 3" snow event perhaps in nw Miss, western and central Tenn and Ky. through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 1040 high in Montana , but the ridging goes all the way to the Southeast at 60 hours, thanks to the strengthening departing east coast storm. Cold air is pouring in east of the Rockies all the way to the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Per the Euro, MEG might need to issue a WSW for the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 at 72 , the zero is just south of I 20, and the southern rockies trough is sharp. A surface low near Lubbock. At 78, Ks, Ok, Mo and Co are in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 at 72 , the zero is just south of I 20, and the southern rockies trough is sharp. A surface low near Lubbock. At 78, Ks, Ok, Mo and Co are in snow. Man...this run seems to be starting out nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Crazy clash with temps going in western TX/ E NM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 at 84 and 90 theres not as much separation in the streams it appears. A new s/w is over the midwest pretty close to it, but Ok, ark, Mo are getting snow. The zero runs from CAE to around or maybe south of ATL. By 96, northern half of Ms and La and southern Ark are gettin good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 at 84 and 90 theres not as much separation in the streams it appears. A new s/w is over the midwest pretty close to it, but Ok, ark, Mo are getting snow. The zero runs from CAE to around or maybe south of ATL. By 96, northern half of Ms and La and southern Ark are gettin good snow. That doesn't sound good. Phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro and UKMET @ 96HR are very, very similar with LP placement near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 pos tilt, Arctic air in place, yeah, this is going to be another good run folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 At 102, theres a 1008 low over Fl. panhandle, the snow line is well south in Ga.....much more supressed I think than the 12z. Al and GA are in the heart of it , with heavy precip near the Gulf coast. By 108, the low is offshore the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Not as expansive this run with the 700mb RH field at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 at 108 the sfc low is a lot more strung out, not as much precip and 2m temps look warmer to me...it is also east of the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow, are 850 temps ever colder this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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