Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm pleased with tonight's GFS run...consistancy has developed in terms of the thermal structure. That's IMO the biggest thing you wanna see at this time frame from the GFS. If tonight's Euro stays the same, then I think my confidence for a winter storm increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, this run sucked but I was really affraid it was going to show the perfect run, then I knew we would be screwed in the long run. I was thinking before the 0z run, "do I really want the 0z gfs to show the perfect storm this early"? Yep, looks like its forming into another non-event for us. And that agrees with the pattern we've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yep, looks like its forming into another non-event for us. And that agrees with the pattern we've seen all winter. That is not at all what he was saying. When the GFS and Euro have the perfect track it usually means about two days out it will pull north and west and in our case that mean too warm. The GFS is staying consistent with a pretty SE track of that low which helps when it gets close mean it gives us some wiggle room....and BTW this winter has been awesome for many in the SE so I say keep up the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yep, looks like its forming into another non-event for us. And that agrees with the pattern we've seen all winter. Imo it's way to early to say non-event for us...Other models are showing a good event for us right now and until that changes I like our chances for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 just got in and looked at the NAM . Something is bad wrong between 48 and 60 hours on that model. Likely the enhanced resolution being a double edged sword Robert, while good at resolving finer differences in the short term, factors in the medium range that are outside of the NAM's box aided by the meso res, affect the solution past 48hrs usually and often times it is considered an outlier beyond that. BTW, good post Phil, and excellent update on Examiner Allan. There has been a lot of discussion today about a sig NW trend, and to be honest, it is unwarranted at this point imo. For such a solution to be valid, I would like to see a couple of the Big 3 members cutting inland, and without being privy to the Euro ens, the GFS and GGEM show nothing of the like. Granted, there are a couple Canadian members that look Miller B'ish with a weak secondary cutting up through NE GA, but not enough evidence or support there to warrant a concern. What we saw a couple days ago with the consensus being inland, maybe even towards the Apps or TN Valley was a phasing scenario, and overall stronger system. Over the past 48 hrs we have trended away from that, with more separation between the streams and the energy contained within them, as a result of the Mon system going Nuclear through the Maritimes and forcing the PV to orient NW-SE, vs N-S, which skips the northern parcel along through the UP of MI instead of the OH Valley, where it would interact with the southern energy. Granted, we could see a trend back towards the NW, but nothing at this point indicates a track inland. As Allan mentioned yesterday, GFS cold and suppressed, GGEM warm and amplified, EC about perfect, yeah, you can't ask for a better output at this range folks. Furthermore, the fact the NOGAPS and UKMET, both of which have documented biases at this range of being suppressed is a strong signal it is game on. I stated a couple days ago that this may be a storm we see coming at a range greater than most, as phasing and interaction between the streams was likly a wild card and modeled incorrectly, we are looking at a dominant southern parcel, which is easier to resolve. The general track is taking shape, just south of LA, maybe near the mouth of the MS, offshore around SVH/CHS, and east of HAT. The envelope imo does not include a 85 runner, more like I-95 to about 150 miles off the OBX, and OTS seems the consensus which would fit the bill for a SE SN-storm from a climo perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Imo it's way to early to say non-event for us...Other models are showing a good event for us right now and until that changes I like our chances for something. I agree, I am very happy the GFS is exactly where it's at 100+ hours out. The UK and GGEM should be out soon, those will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It wasn't just the Euro that was suggesting very cold air deep into the SE next week. Although the Euro had the coldest runs (-21C and -20C at KATL, near record cold 850's), the gfs also had very cold runs too...down to like -17C. The 0Z gfs now has the coldest 850's for the next 7 days of only -3C at KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I will be interested in the 0z Euro tonight. If it trends to the southeast, I'm heading back into hibernation. Hoping for a block the last week of February and early March so we have one last storm to track before winter wraps up. It's been good. Good luck to you folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Carver I would feel better living where you are than where I am for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 One thing I do think happens after this storm is a quick and fleeting cold snap, then the big thaw. Warm up on the way. Probably our first really warm spell in the Southeast since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm debating whether or not to set my special 0Z Euro alarm clock. The good thing is that it won't wake me if the 0Z Euro has no sig. wintry precip. for ATL, AHN, MCN, SAV, or CHS. If it has it, it would be worth being woken from even a deep sound sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm debating whether or not to set my special 0Z Euro alarm clock. The good thing is that it won't wake me if the 0Z Euro has no sig. wintry precip. for ATL, AHN, MCN, SAV, or CHS. If it has it, it would be worth being woken from even a deep sound sleep. I predict your alarm clock goes off at 1:10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I predict your alarm clock goes off at 1:10 am. Foothills the prophet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the canadian pretty much hammers western nc, upstate sc, far N GA, and lighter amounts in TN. Some mixing issues, but a 1027 hp over Indy Thursday evening with a very faint CAD signature (which for the Canadian is farily significant since it doesn't usually show cad). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z UKMET severely suppressed on Meteociel C FL for the SE win http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&nh=1&archive=0 dominant southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the canadian pretty much hammers western nc, upstate sc, far N GA, and lighter amounts in TN. Some mixing issues, but a 1027 hp over Indy Thursday evening with a very faint CAD signature (which for the Canadian is farily significant since it doesn't usually show cad). TW yeah, looks like widespread 20MM+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just for the record, all of the major population centers in NC are all snow on the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the canadian pretty much hammers western nc, upstate sc, far N GA, and lighter amounts in TN. Some mixing issues, but a 1027 hp over Indy Thursday evening with a very faint CAD signature (which for the Canadian is farily significant since it doesn't usually show cad). TW Indeed it does. Its about 12 hours slower than the GFS and Euro though, I guess its making a bigger deal of the Monday east coast storm which slows things down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Atlanta and north of Birmingham get crushed, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z UKMET severely suppressed on Meteociel C FL for the SE win http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0 dominant southern stream I cannot remember...where was the UKMET last night at 0Z, in terms of SLP? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Indeed it does. Its about 12 hours slower than the GFS and Euro though, I guess its making a bigger deal of the Monday east coast storm which slows things down some. Atlanta and north of Birmingham get crushed, FYI. Can you guys give me the link to the site with Canadian precip types? Really need to bookmark it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just for the record, all of the major population centers in NC are all snow on the canadian. What was the Canadian showing last night Jeremy? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am wondering if we may be in for more of a surprise on Monday? I know this probably may not belong here. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just for the record, all of the major population centers in NC are all snow on the canadian. Indeed it does. Its about 12 hours slower than the GFS and Euro though, I guess its making a bigger deal of the Monday east coast storm which slows things down some. Argh! I want it to move faster so the snow comes and goes before Friday when I'm driving to Asheville for skiing! Should be some nice fresh powder, though!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Can you guys give me the link to the site with Canadian precip types? Really need to bookmark it. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 0-48 is the RGEM, after that to 120hrs it is the coarser GGEM. ATL in +SN CLT and RDU too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hmm, I was looking at the Canadian and it looks like a good part of the metro ATL would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z Canadian buries people just north of the I-20 corridor. Epic. http://collaboration...1020600_105.png http://collaboration...1020600_111.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html 0-48 is the RGEM, after that to 120hrs it is the coarser GGEM. Alright thanks man. Looks like a pretty good hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hmm, I was looking at the Canadian and it looks like a good part of the metro ATL would be rain. Or are you talking about Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Been out all day, and haven't had a chance to analyze the models, so how is Asheville, NC looking for snow accumulation wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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