griteater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A couple thoughts based on today's runs: 1. The path and strength of the upper wave will largely dictate how this plays out. 18z GFS is a pretty darn good look for the GSP to CLT corridor with a fairly weak wave that still generates a moderate amount of QPF. If we ramp up the strength of that wave, we run the risk of it drawing in too much warmth...also, a stronger wave on its current track would increase the dry slotting along and just south of the 500mb vort track. If we keep the blocking flow over the Great Lakes that is suppressing the wave, I think it's unlikely we are going to see it be a strong wave in the SE. Consequently, if we lose some of that blocking flow over the Great Lakes, that will open the door for a stronger amplitude wave, warmer, and more inland. 2. I keep noticing on the Euro detail maps a good supply of cold air (tight gradient) to the north of the 850mb low track. That bodes well for whoever is just to the NW of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 To depressing to stay up and watch the Euro if it comes inland, I wouldn't be able to fall back asleep. The fact that every other model (outside of the JMA) has come SE should indicate this isn't going way inland but we will see. If it does come inland some it won't surprise me really. I've always had that in the back of my mind but right now I'm just taking this one model run at a time. If it does come inland then I'm not super disappointed. I've seen this so many times before, you just shrug your shoulders and say "oh well". Every once in a while though one does work out and we get a really good storm and those are the ones that keep you coming back for more. Maybe, just maybe, this is one of those. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/models-converge-on-a-southeast-winter-storm-wednesday-thursday My evening thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the 00z NAM is not nearly as cold as the 18z GFS @84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Sarcasm but I do want 70 and sunny. Plus Phil said Spring would come early. The groundhog don't lie. Phil doesn't forecast for us. General Lee does. Phil forecasts for Joe Bastardi territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Nice write-up Allan. Like to see what the next two Euro runs show. Hope no nw shift/trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Good job Allan!....Looks like we'll learn a lot about this system with tomorrow night's 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mst87 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Chillin' here this evening waiting to see what the 0Z GFS has in store for us... So far I like the overall trends. The Canadian especially seemed to make a fairly large shift today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Just watched the local news (Fox 8) and they now have all snow for the piedmont on Thursday. That's a change from last night. I hate that they even mention it because it seems like everytime they call for snow, we don't get any. Yet, when they DON'T call for it, we get it. Hoping that this is one time that we DO! Looking forward to seeing what the newest models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 BTW...my b-day is the 8th, so a snowstorm a day later would be an awesome present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the 00z NAM is not nearly as cold as the 18z GFS @84 just got in and looked at the NAM . Something is bad wrong between 48 and 60 hours on that model. A strong deep s/w in southern Alabama, then 12 hours later almost nothing off the coast of Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 just got in and looked at the NAM . Something is bad wrong between 48 and 60 hours on that model. A strong deep s/w in southern Alabama, then 12 hours later almost nothing off the coast of Virginia? Yea it almost looks like it sends it to England instead of up the coast with what little is left...hopefully the NAM is just totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 :thumbsup: OK BURGER TIME FOR YOUR WONDERFUL PBP ON THIS ONE!!! BRING IT HOME THIS RUN FOR US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This Monday wave is taking on a negative tilt on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 BTW the 00z looks close to the 18z our storm up north is a little further west as it bombs so that should work out good for us down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 :thumbsup: OK BURGER TIME FOR YOUR WONDERFUL PBP ON THIS ONE!!! BRING IT HOME THIS RUN FOR US Captain Weinke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 @87 our PV looks stronger so we might see slightly more suppressed vs. the 18z good signs for sure but lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 :thumbsup: OK BURGER TIME FOR YOUR WONDERFUL PBP ON THIS ONE!!! BRING IT HOME THIS RUN FOR US What does PBP stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What does PBP stand for? Play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What does PBP stand for? Play by Play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 As always I spoke to soon after 87 our PV kind of weakens and it's making this run warmer than the 18z...also doing it's transfer shinanagans and really making it weak across the south with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the 0z gfs is back to the 12z solution w/ shearing out the energy and redeveloping off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thanks, I had never heard the expression play by play referred to as PBP and didn't think of model descriptions as play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This run blows on sfc temps....on to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the 0z gfs is back to the 12z solution w/ shearing out the energy and redeveloping off the coast. Yea and those sfc temps really jump during the most qpf per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thanks, I had never heard the expression play by play referred to as PBP and didn't think of model descriptions as play by play. Don't worry Larry, I hadn't heard it until this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This run of the GFS has additional weak energy coming into the primary around 96 hours which makes the primary all but disappear in the South. Very little precip. Typical GFS really. Temp profiles looked similar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the 0z gfs is back to the 12z solution w/ shearing out the energy and redeveloping off the coast. Yeah and then it just stalls of the NC coast for about 12 hours and then slowly heads OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This run of the GFS has additional weak energy coming into the primary around 96 hours which makes the primary all but disappear in the South. Very little precip. Typical GFS really. Temp profiles looked similar though. Yep no need to panic. Though I won't be around for the Euro, been hungover all day and need some sleep. Hopefully it holds course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yea and those sfc temps really jump during the most qpf per the GFS. Yeah, this run sucked but I was really affraid it was going to show the perfect run, then I knew we would be screwed in the long run. I was thinking before the 0z run, "do I really want the 0z gfs to show the perfect storm this early"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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