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February 8-12 model Discussion II

Isopycnic

By Isopycnic,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Nope - but I do have many recollections of my great grandfather and great uncles talking about it. I'm just a kid (relatively speaking).

And - by the way - no sarcasm was intended; I truly hope you all north of here get a glorious one!I was only saying it would be nice if all of us could ....

Ha ha of course not! None taken!

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

400x266_02041746_lateweekstorm.jpg

The track of the SLP would bring rain to almost all of the SE, yet they show snow? Meanwhile, their "Weaker, Less Impact" track would bring significant snows to a lot of the Southeast. arrowheadsmiley.png

New DGEX is out. Looks like a solid 2-5 inch snow for northern half of GA, southern half of TN, all of NC and SC. Big winner looks to be around Morehead City, NC. Looks like one of the earlier GFS runs.

DGEX

Another wild swing with the DGEX. Never know what it might show next! Snow in Tampa? Rain in Winnipeg? Nothing is impossible with our favorite model!

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Well Larry Cosgrove says it's an inland track. Of course he has busted before.

Only the ECMWF model suite seems to understand that the low now aimed at British Columbia could be a very, very big deal in the lower 48 states over the next week or so. The GFS and GGEM series have lost the storm, a common problem with numerical modeling when the feature is about five to six days from its greatest impact. So the picture painted by the European equation is likely too weak, and probably too far south and east. If you examine the 500MB shortwave associated with the disturbance, the core of vorticity tracks well inland and does not reach the coastline until the Gulf of Maine until February 12. On that notion, my storm track recurves fairly sharply, close to the "Piedmont Cyclone" track, along the south and east rim of an Arctic air mass.
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weatherman566

weatherman566

Posted
Posted

400x266_02041746_lateweekstorm.jpg

The track of the SLP would bring rain to almost all of the SE, yet they show snow? Meanwhile, their "Weaker, Less Impact" track would bring significant snows to a lot of the Southeast. arrowheadsmiley.png

Another wild swing with the DGEX. Never know what it might show next! Snow in Tampa? Rain in Winnipeg? Nothing is impossible with our favorite model!

Don't forget that Accuweather is only trying to please their viewers, who are in the Northeast. Don't even think for a second that Accuweather would actually forecast a weather event in the south. That's too difficult! :P

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

When the Euro locks on it's hard for me to believe it would be that far off...but then again anything is possible.

Well I won't be up for the Euro tonight but I hope it shifts SE tonight, give us some breathing room, we know it's going to pull back NW inside 48 hours.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Well I won't be up for the Euro tonight but I hope it shifts SE tonight, give us some breathing room, we know it's going to pull back NW inside 48 hours.

As long as the euro continues to show us getting hammered I will be staying up for it. That doesn't come very often so I'm going to enjoy every minute of it.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I see some forecasters are going more north and west. Thats possible, I don't deny that. Without the -NAO and a true block, odds are this does creep a little north than shown, but maybe not that much...we don't know its southwest most point, and generally it should round the bend of the long wave that extends from Hudson bay, so once it reaches its southerly most point, I won't be surprised to see it edge north. Many have done that, in fact most have, from 5 to 6 days out, which is why its' always nervous here in the South to see a potential then watch it time after time edge north at the last moment. I'm not saying that will happen this time, we have several factors still shoving this pretty far south, but they're only portrayed so far on the schemes, so I urge nobody to be expecting verbatim the Euro track or qpf.

However, someone north of the track is going to get snowed in. So far this shortwave looks like a strong one, and the trend this season has been even stronger than shown, so I wouldn't be suprised to see this end up a massive Winter storm for the Tenn Valley and surrounding regions. Its a totally unique setup with no additional shortwaves , no phasing, a separate flow, and cold air that is shown to be well established pretty far south...all these things we usually don't have, and all those things continue to be modeled in general by all models, its just we can make the snow/rain line yet. We don't need a strong or even moderate surface low to generate a lot of precip. Several good snowfalls occurred across the I-40 corridor without one, just good lift and convergence, a separate and moderate s/w, and very cold air for high ratios.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

I'm still quite concerned about an inland solution. After most of us got burned badly by the January 25-26th threat... I think we need to watch the trends of the Polar Vortex very carefully. Right now its dipping down just enough to allow us to have enough cold air in place.

However, there are a couple of things that should also be observed, which I'll highlight here that might prevent such a disaster of modeling like this last major threat.

1. Our short wave should be modeled much better than the January 25th-26th threat

The reason for this is that we have a much stronger impulse that will be diving down into the Southwestern United States. This is not similar to our situation in January 25-26th, as we were dealing with a very low amplitude shortwave that in order to intensify had to phase to some degree with another polar shortwave. Phasing just adds additional complications to the matter, and the fact that the original shortwave was very low amplitude made it susceptible to minor errors in the modeling causing major changes to the solution. Thus, when the models caught on to a stronger shortwave, it caused a major change in the solution.

2. The upcoming shortwave leading our major disturbance is amplifying over the southeastern united states, rather than dampening out.

This is a big one, and likely the most important part of next weeks forecast! So far the models have been showing the leaving shortwave that is expected to bring the cold air actually amplifying over the southeastern United States. Look at the image below. Note that the leading shortwave that swung down into the United States was on a weakening trend, and thus, its CAA was limited. The models are show the opposite effect with Monday's expected shortwave. A shortwave thats amplifying instead of weakening would be able to bring down more CAA on its backside as it passes the southeast.

This was the setup for the January 25th-26th storm... not the dampening shortwave before our main event.

2jdklfk.gif

Now Compare this to the upcoming event... the first shortwave is digging into the Southeast, not vice versa.

2qk1dv9.gif

Its the upcoming system that should be able to pull down the PV enough to keep the cold air in place. The January 25th-26th case was a good example where we just couldn't get enough cold air in place, and then when the storm amplified too much, it was just the nail in the coffin.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

As long as the euro continues to show us getting hammered I will be staying up for it. That doesn't come very often so I'm going to enjoy every minute of it.

To depressing to stay up and watch the Euro if it comes inland, I wouldn't be able to fall back asleep. The fact that every other model (outside of the JMA) has come SE should indicate this isn't going way inland but we will see.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I'm still quite concerned about an inland solution. After most of us got burned badly by the January 25-26th threat... I think we need to watch the trends of the Polar Vortex very carefully. Right now its dipping down just enough to allow us to have enough cold air in place.

However, there are a couple of things that should also be observed, which I'll highlight here that might prevent such a disaster of modeling like this last major threat.

This was the setup for the January 25th-26th storm... not the dampening shortwave before our main event.

Now Compare this to the upcoming event... the first shortwave is digging into the Southeast, not vice versa.

good post. I saw the Euro was even colder behind that wave for Tn and NC esp. at 850 behind it. I think the models have been strengthening it a couple of days now. The colder it can get before the storm hits, the better as it will allow time to warm us up. I'm always nervous of overamplification though on these southern systems as they def. have a tendency to ramp up, and the PV will be strong but probably place far enough north to allow some northerly movement. There's always a fine line between staying cold enough for snow and switching over. Also, the Euro had that damming showing up, which I'm not convinced is real yet. Could be. If so, the ice will be a problem for some who don't get snow or switch from snow to something else.

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Northern Foothills Snowman

Northern Foothills Snowman

Posted
Posted

I'm still quite concerned about an inland solution. After most of us got burned badly by the January 25-26th threat... I think we need to watch the trends of the Polar Vortex very carefully. Right now its dipping down just enough to allow us to have enough cold air in place.

However, there are a couple of things that should also be observed, which I'll highlight here that might prevent such a disaster of modeling like this last major threat.

1. Our short wave should be modeled much better than the January 25th-26th threat

The reason for this is that we have a much stronger impulse that will be diving down into the Southwestern United States. This is not similar to our situation in January 25-26th, as we were dealing with a very low amplitude shortwave that in order to intensify had to phase to some degree with another polar shortwave. Phasing just adds additional complications to the matter, and the fact that the original shortwave was very low amplitude made it susceptible to minor errors in the modeling causing major changes to the solution. Thus, when the models caught on to a stronger shortwave, it caused a major change in the solution.

2. The upcoming shortwave leading our major disturbance is amplifying over the southeastern united states, rather than dampening out.

This is a big one, and likely the most important part of next weeks forecast! So far the models have been showing the leaving shortwave that is expected to bring the cold air actually amplifying over the southeastern United States. Look at the image below. Note that the leading shortwave that swung down into the United States was on a weakening trend, and thus, its CAA was limited. The models are show the opposite effect with Monday's expected shortwave. A shortwave thats amplifying instead of weakening would be able to bring down more CAA on its backside as it passes the southeast.

This was the setup for the January 25th-26th storm... not the dampening shortwave before our main event.

2jdklfk.gif

Now Compare this to the upcoming event... the first shortwave is digging into the Southeast, not vice versa.

2qk1dv9.gif

Its the upcoming system that should be able to pull down the PV enough to keep the cold air in place. The January 25th-26th case was a good example where we just couldn't get enough cold air in place, and then when the storm amplified too much, it was just the nail in the coffin.

One of the problems with the storm on the 25th&26th was the fact that the cold front that came through had time to migrate off the NE coast so ther was no Artic H in the northeast.If the storm had hit on Mon as apposed to Tues afternoon we would have gotten slammed .May not all snow but a mix none the less.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

One of the problems with the storm on the 25th&26th was the fact that the cold front that came through had time to migrate off the NE coast so ther was no Artic H in the northeast.If the storm had hit on Mon as apposed to Tues afternoon we would have gotten slammed .May not all snow but a mix none the less.

Can you please take the images out of that post?

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