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February 8-12 model Discussion II


Isopycnic

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Overall the 18z gfs is starting to look like the euro imo...the wave is stronger and all the energy doesn't jump to the coast...It seems to stay together across the fl panhandle. Imo this is a step in the good direction.

I was kind of hoping the GFS would get to this point, but not until Monday's 0z runs, I still think N/W is our concern.

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I was kind of hoping the GFS would get to this point, but not until Monday's 0z runs, I still think N/W is our concern.

The good thing is the gfs is still east of where the euro is. Over the next day or so the gfs will start to creep its way back west like normal.

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Haha you never learn BF! You always worried about it then you cash in weight_lift.gif. There is probably a good chance you are on the outside looking in, but like I said it always comes through for you at the last minute.

Yes on minor events, But most of the BIG ones seem to be south and east of me. And a track that clobbers RDU and east is no good for me! :axe:

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The good thing is the gfs is still east of where the euro is. Over the next day or so the gfs will start to creep its way back west like normal.

And the Euro will be totally out to lunch only to come back Monday night. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Waiting for the snow map to come out and it should look good.

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The good thing is the gfs is still east of where the euro is. Over the next day or so the gfs will start to creep its way back west like normal.

It seems that once inside 48 hours these storms to tug a little more N/W so we can't be on the line at 48 hours. I know I am getting a head of myself but it seems like there is going to be a winter storm of some sort next Wed/Thurs.

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It seems that once inside 48 hours these storms to tug a little more N/W so we can't be on the line at 48 hours. I know I am getting a head of myself but it seems like there is going to be a winter storm of some sort next Wed/Thurs.

Another thing to look for is if the storm will have a large or small transition zone (snow - sleet - freezing rain - rain). The high to the north (strength & placement) will be crucial for somebody.

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Well the much beloved and almost never correct snow map of the GFS has a large chunk of NC, and SC in 4-8 even CAE is in 2-4. GA and TN have practically nothing...but it could be 0-2 the map I have just doesn't shade that.

Per the Wright-Weather snow map 18z GFS is has Atlanta northward in the 1-2.5" shade.

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Northern Oklahoma get's destroyed on the GFS. I haven't been paying attention but it seems like they just got hit a couple of days ago hard. Must be nice.

Yeah, not surprising. They got the big one and then another 3 inches or so on that yesterday. It's really strange anymore, Oklahoma Cities seasonal average is lower than many communities in the southern apps but seems the last 10-15 years they have been outdoing these areas.

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It seems that once inside 48 hours these storms to tug a little more N/W so we can't be on the line at 48 hours. I know I am getting a head of myself but it seems like there is going to be a winter storm of some sort next Wed/Thurs.

Oh yea, we'll be sweating this one out to the end I'm afraid but that's normal for this area. The thing is, for us to get a big event we have to be close to that line. Sometimes it works out for us though and maybe this is one of those times. (I'm going to positive think myself into a snowstorm!)

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You remember that one? grampa.gif

Nope - but I do have many recollections of my great grandfather and great uncles talking about it. I'm just a kid (relatively speaking).

And - by the way - no sarcasm was intended; I truly hope you all north of here get a glorious one!I was only saying it would be nice if all of us could ....

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Oh yea, we'll be sweating this one out to the end I'm afraid but that's normal for this area. The thing is, for us to get a big event we have to be close to that line.

Yeah, on one of the regional forums (NYC or PHL or MA) they were stating the 12z Euro Spaghetti plots had a number of SLP tracks NW of the OP.

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Yeah, on one of the regional forums (NYC or PHL or MA) they were stating the 12z Euro Spaghetti plots had a number of SLP tracks NW of the OP.

I'll go w/ the mean over the spaghetti plots because the mean was good for us....:whistle:

Plus they're probably looking at this w/ blinders on since they want it to come west so they get in on a big storm.

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Haha you never learn BF! You always worried about it then you cash in weight_lift.gif. There is probably a good chance you are on the outside looking in, but like I said it always comes through for you at the last minute.

you can tell him nothing, they have all trending west and this one will, too far out to even worry about it anyway

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