rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Overall the 18z gfs is starting to look like the euro imo...the wave is stronger and all the energy doesn't jump to the coast...It seems to stay together across the fl panhandle. Imo this is a step in the good direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Strange on the 18z GFS, instead of the storm turning into speed racer it just stalls and crawls up the NC/SC coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wouldn't that just be congrats basically all of NC? Ha yea pretty much, but it keeps all the heavy QPF out of Central and northern NC except on the east side, looks like RDU does well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Overall the 18z gfs is starting to look like the euro imo...the wave is stronger and all the energy doesn't jump to the coast...It seems to stay together across the fl panhandle. Imo this is a step in the good direction. I was kind of hoping the GFS would get to this point, but not until Monday's 0z runs, I still think N/W is our concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ha yea pretty much, but it keeps all the heavy QPF out of Central and northern NC except on the east side, looks like RDU does well though. Yeah, it kind of reminds me of the Xmas storm track, where I-95 in NC get's slammed. WeatherNC has to like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looking at the accumulated qpf maps it looks like pretty much all of NC gets .50 out of this run as well as most of GA and SC the big losers are in NW SC but it's pointless worrying about the qpf right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was kind of hoping the GFS would get to this point, but not until Monday's 0z runs, I still think N/W is our concern. The good thing is the gfs is still east of where the euro is. Over the next day or so the gfs will start to creep its way back west like normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Haha you never learn BF! You always worried about it then you cash in . There is probably a good chance you are on the outside looking in, but like I said it always comes through for you at the last minute. Yes on minor events, But most of the BIG ones seem to be south and east of me. And a track that clobbers RDU and east is no good for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Northern Oklahoma get's destroyed on the GFS. I haven't been paying attention but it seems like they just got hit a couple of days ago hard. Must be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The good thing is the gfs is still east of where the euro is. Over the next day or so the gfs will start to creep its way back west like normal. And the Euro will be totally out to lunch only to come back Monday night. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Waiting for the snow map to come out and it should look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The good thing is the gfs is still east of where the euro is. Over the next day or so the gfs will start to creep its way back west like normal. It seems that once inside 48 hours these storms to tug a little more N/W so we can't be on the line at 48 hours. I know I am getting a head of myself but it seems like there is going to be a winter storm of some sort next Wed/Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It seems that once inside 48 hours these storms to tug a little more N/W so we can't be on the line at 48 hours. I know I am getting a head of myself but it seems like there is going to be a winter storm of some sort next Wed/Thurs. Another thing to look for is if the storm will have a large or small transition zone (snow - sleet - freezing rain - rain). The high to the north (strength & placement) will be crucial for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well the much beloved and almost never correct snow map of the GFS has a large chunk of NC, and SC in 4-8 even CAE is in 2-4. GA and TN have practically nothing...but it could be 0-2 the map I have just doesn't shade that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I watch with anticipation for all of ya'all north of me (model hugging for your sake). I only wish this thing could miraculously turn into February 12 & 13, 1899. Anyway - good luck, Macon, north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well the much beloved and almost never correct snow map of the GFS has a large chunk of NC, and SC in 4-8 even CAE is in 2-4. GA and TN have practically nothing...but it could be 0-2 the map I have just doesn't shade that. Per the Wright-Weather snow map 18z GFS is has Atlanta northward in the 1-2.5" shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I watch with anticipation for all of ya'all north of me (model hugging for your sake). I only wish this thing could miraculously turn into February 12 & 13, 1899. Anyway - good luck, Macon, north! You remember that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Per the Wright-Weather snow map 18z GFS is has Atlanta northward in the 1-2.5" shade. Yea I sort of suspected that as N GA should have at least had something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Northern Oklahoma get's destroyed on the GFS. I haven't been paying attention but it seems like they just got hit a couple of days ago hard. Must be nice. Yeah, not surprising. They got the big one and then another 3 inches or so on that yesterday. It's really strange anymore, Oklahoma Cities seasonal average is lower than many communities in the southern apps but seems the last 10-15 years they have been outdoing these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You remember that one? Good one! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 About time to update the ol' blog...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It seems that once inside 48 hours these storms to tug a little more N/W so we can't be on the line at 48 hours. I know I am getting a head of myself but it seems like there is going to be a winter storm of some sort next Wed/Thurs. Oh yea, we'll be sweating this one out to the end I'm afraid but that's normal for this area. The thing is, for us to get a big event we have to be close to that line. Sometimes it works out for us though and maybe this is one of those times. (I'm going to positive think myself into a snowstorm!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You remember that one? Nope - but I do have many recollections of my great grandfather and great uncles talking about it. I'm just a kid (relatively speaking). And - by the way - no sarcasm was intended; I truly hope you all north of here get a glorious one!I was only saying it would be nice if all of us could .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Oh yea, we'll be sweating this one out to the end I'm afraid but that's normal for this area. The thing is, for us to get a big event we have to be close to that line. Yeah, on one of the regional forums (NYC or PHL or MA) they were stating the 12z Euro Spaghetti plots had a number of SLP tracks NW of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Linky?? About time to update the ol' blog...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 well evidentally there were a number of spaghetti plots SE of the Euro OP as well since the ensemble mean is SE of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, on one of the regional forums (NYC or PHL or MA) they were stating the 12z Euro Spaghetti plots had a number of SLP tracks NW of the OP. I'll go w/ the mean over the spaghetti plots because the mean was good for us.... Plus they're probably looking at this w/ blinders on since they want it to come west so they get in on a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The 18z GFS mean is of course SE of the OP but is NW of the 12z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Linky?? http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/brandon-huffman i'll update later this evening for sure. i usually write when interesting weather events are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS looks like the Christmas storm track... not going to get excited east of 95 as it looks like we will likely get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Haha you never learn BF! You always worried about it then you cash in . There is probably a good chance you are on the outside looking in, but like I said it always comes through for you at the last minute. you can tell him nothing, they have all trending west and this one will, too far out to even worry about it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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