crossthread Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well folks, I'm still a Dummie Weenie" when it comes from soundings etc & the like, I'm still trying to learns ya'lls Mets Maps.... And certain terms, as it's applied to the Maps, Shortwaves, etc.. Excuse Me for the Banter, As I'm understanding, what happens to this short wave, gets "digging" into the deep south, (after todays rain) bringing cold Artic air with it ... Surface Low Pressure comes up the Coast. Moister "splits", thus , also with the 850 tenos, (below 0), or Zero Line this is the snow growth region possilbly? always refered to? Gets tugged, oh I mean "surrpressed" to almost here. Couled with the "split flow" hangs Central, Foothilss, out of the runing.. Though with the WEAKER SLP sliding u[, off the coast, bringing Ample Moister with it, could Mean a Winter Flizard here, for the Coasties in SENC, sothward, and DEFINITLY Eastern NC... ? . Am I right thus far? Or Way off the book? As per the Local AFD, seems interesting on thier always conservative outlook... SunCatSorry, you're right. I should have said 'precipitation'. I think you will see some accumulation where you are, but the extreme coastal regions will more likely have a rain/snow mix as things stand right now. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 922 PM EST Monday Feb 7 2011 Synopsis... low pressure off the Carolina coasts will accelerate to the northeast overnight. A cold front will move across the area Tuesday morning.Cold and dry high pressure will dominate Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Another storm system may affect the region Wednesday night and Thursday...possibly bringing a wintry mix of precipitation. High pressure will build into the area Friday and remain through the weekend. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 9 PM Monday...double surface(triple?) low pressure structure extending from the low over western Virginia to the low becoming better organized and offshore of Cape Fear NC. The low offshore will become the main surface low and intensify as it moves to the offshore waters off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast by daybreak Tuesday. This intensification will come from the dynamics associated with the ie. 500 mb vorticity maximum shown over southern Georgia via the RUC and water vapor imagery. The earlier precipitation had mainly been a result of overrunning type rains. However ..for the remainder of the night...Upward vertical velocities across the region will be a result of the dynamics associated with the middle level vorticity maximum as well as the kinematics associated with the upper level jet...ie upper divergence. The remaining precipitation across the forecast area will not be as widespread/heavier as earlier...and should come to an end from SW to NE by daybreak Tuesday. The progressive flow aloft will finally push/shunt the upper moisture plume east and south of the forecast area by daybreak Tuesday. Will continue to hang onto some type of cloudiness after the precipitation ends...with a low level cloud deck dominating as highlighted via latest model time height sections. Surface cold front to push through around or just after daybreak Tuesday. Lows for the night will likely occur around or just after daybreak Tuesday. As for fog...model MOS guidance indicates possible patchy fog late with low stratus dominating below the developing subsidence inversion after the vorticity passes bye. Winds also in the low levels will pick up keeping any rad type fog from developing. && Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... as of 3 PM Monday...cool northwesterly flow Tuesday in the wake of the front and in advance of high pressure building in from the central Continental U.S.. expect mainly clear skies for the bulk of Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximums in the lower and middle 50s are expected Tuesday with mins in the middle to upper 20s on tap for Tuesday night. On Wednesday...expect to see increasing clouds in advance of a system moving NE from the Gulf of Mexico with maximums similar to Tuesday...perhaps a degree or two cooler depending on how quickly clouds arrive. Big potential for a forecast bust Wednesday night with the GFS and NAM offering very different guidance on the strength of the low and the associated thermal and moisture profiles. If the NAM is correct...we could be looking at a significant winter precipitation event over our northwest counties with rain south and east. If the GFS is correct...we may have a brief period of mainly light rain along the coast. For the sake of continuity...the forecast reflects some potential for snow over the northwest counties with rain south and east. Probability of precipitation are limited to the chance category for now due to the uncertainty. Either way...mins Wednesday night will fall to the low to middle 30s. && Long term /Thursday through Monday/... as of 3 PM Monday...quite a low-confidence forecast for Thursday as the models remain inconsistent from one run to the next. GFS/European model (ecmwf) have come in very weak with the coastal low on Thursday...and even try to spin up another low on Friday. NAM is now the strongest of the three with the Thursday system. Have scaled back precipitation chances...now with nothing more than a 50 pop on Thursday morning...but p-type questions persist. Looks like there is deep enough saturation inland...and low levels are just cold enough that we run the risk of a rain/snow mix inland for part of Thursday morning. Moisture is now looking on the meager side...so will knock probability of precipitation down too quickly to face any wintry precipitation issues Thursday night as the system hopefully exits. Biggest change to Friday is that the Arctic surge previously advertised does not happen. Still a chilly high with temperatures well below normal...but now looks like we have a decent chance to crack 50 degrees. Moderating trend over the weekend as high pressure expands across the deep south and Gulf Coast...keeping the Carolinas dry. Temperatures will recover to near normal for Sunday and Monday. end disco, .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I think this will get you some of that hope! Thanks Bud!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Fishel just said maybe a passing flurry Wed night or Thur morning - don't stay up looking for it... his thinking is that the mid levels aren't going to moisten up enough for anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow is this place dead. A significant snow is coming for parts of the southeast but no one cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I can't believe no one posted about the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You guys are in the old thread. This is the new one: http://www.americanw...ii/page__st__40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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