FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It looks like Burger's Bermuda Snow Triangle has expanded 100 miles in each direction!! The mountains, lack of good east winds, and a dying 5H coming into confluent flow all spell demise in this part of NC I'm afraid. The models are clearly showing that now. However from the Apps, west, southwest and even north, not to mention east, get snow. Its just a bad setup here, esp. with no 850 low and good surface low, the 5H doesn't tap the Gulf enough, and moisture probably splits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The northern Outer Banks get destroyed IF 2m temperatures are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Has the latest NAM sampled the s/w so far...has it come into play on the latest model? If not, which will be the first model run ro sample it? That could change everything right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Maybe an inch of snow from the NAM. meh. I guess any snow is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 no one has mentioned the fact that the nams 2m temps are horrendous.... CLT is in the 40's by hr 66 And partly sunny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 BTW, the NAM moves some precip through central GA and SC with 850s below zero at hr 60 and 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Maybe an inch of snow from the NAM. meh. I guess any snow is good At this point I'll be happy with a dusting. Anything more than that is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Although I don't know much about model runs. After 30 years of living in the Mountians, two words I have come to hate are "Energy Transfer" We need to kill this thread & someone with the good snow Juju needs to start a new one pronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I think the models are fairly coming into agreement with this one...There are differences, yes, but it's nothing like how the models handled last storm. I can only hope the two lows turn into one big one and do a NW trend.... Last call is the 0z Euro...if the Euro shows a solution close to the GFS I'll have to admit throwing in the towel on this one for my area. Good luck all for the (possibly) last snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 See you guys when there is a true southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The mountains, lack of good east winds, and a dying 5H coming into confluent flow all spell demise in this part of NC I'm afraid. The models are clearly showing that now. However from the Apps, west, southwest and even north, not to mention east, get snow. Its just a bad setup here, esp. with no 850 low and good surface low, the 5H doesn't tap the Gulf enough, and moisture probably splits. This seems to be the general pattern for any moisture coming up from the Gulf to the Carolinas so far this winter. The moisture looks good, then falls apart as it heads toward central South and North Carolina. RDU NWS is only calling for very light accumulation and temperatures on Wednesday will reach 46 F with 36 F on Thursday, so no extreme cold temperatures. My thoughts are tha,t should things remain as they currently are, central NC will see very light cold rain to a dusting of snow. Heavier rainfall will be to the east as has occurred in the past two rain events. I'd like to see something much heavier for the Triangle so Falls Lake can be filled, but I don't think it will happen this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 See you guys when there is a true southern stream. yeah, you tell em "bro". a "true southern stream" would make ATL/CAE much too warm and even CLT would have to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 dont think itll be rain east of RDU SunCat, not with -4 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 See you guys when there is a true southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That was just a downright depressing run for us....what a disaster. The BST holds on this run Jonathan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 yeah, you tell em "bro". a "true southern stream" would make ATL/CAE much too warm and even CLT would have to worry. Sounds like climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm not considering this a fail because I was saying 3 days ago this wasn't going to amount to anything. Winter ended when we got screwed on the Jan 26th storm and I got chewed out for saying that even then, so go ahead and block me for being right. Happy Spring everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm not considering this a fail because I was saying 3 days ago this wasn't going to amount to anything. Winter ended when we got screwed on the Jan 26th storm and I got chewed out for saying that even then, so go ahead and block me for being right. Happy Spring everyone!! Winter does not end until mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Winter does not end until mid April. Outside of weird events like 4/18/83 and the like, accumulating snowfall in almost all of North Carolina is something of an impossibility in mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm not considering this a fail because I was saying 3 days ago this wasn't going to amount to anything. Winter ended when we got screwed on the Jan 26th storm and I got chewed out for saying that even then, so go ahead and block me for being right. Happy Spring everyone!! You're full of it Nelson. This is a Nina year and Ninas are notorious for late season tanking of the NAO and the cold being delivered well into spring. Don't get me wrong, I would love some warmth when it's time but this is Feb 7th for cripes sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well the Euro and UKIE was better, lets see if they hold. We know the GFS is going to sucketh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Outside of weird events like 4/18/83 and the like, accumulating snowfall in almost all of North Carolina is something of an impossibility in mid-April. That's why I put mid April. As I have seen many early April snows. Not very big snows. In fact two years ago I had my best snow of the winter in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, I haven't given up yet. 0z RGEM looks a bit healthier with our southern stream and pops a low right on the La. coast at 48 hours. Comparing its precip field to the 12z GGEM at 60 hours, the 0z RGEM is somewhat more impressive. Grasping at straws? Maybe. But at least I'm not AirNelson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Daily check-in, so nothing to see here! Oh well, we know the NAM , AND GFS are always right. I'll be back tomorrow when the 1st calls on snow totals are out ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 dont think itll be rain east of RDU SunCat, not with -4 850's Sorry, you're right. I should have said 'precipitation'. I think you will see some accumulation where you are, but the extreme coastal regions will more likely have a rain/snow mix as things stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 New thread, new mojo. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12903-feb-8-12-model-discussion-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, I haven't given up yet. 0z RGEM looks a bit healthier with our southern stream and pops a low right on the La. coast at 48 hours. Comparing its precip field to the 12z GGEM at 60 hours, the 0z RGEM is somewhat more impressive. Grasping at straws? Maybe. But at least I'm not AirNelson. I don't think you are... the RUC continues to be MUCH stronger than the other american model guidance. If the European models come in stronger than their 12z runs, then I'd still say game on. With the last few events, the RUC has been far superior to both the GFS and the NAM with at least depicting precipitation. Perhaps it might score another coop here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, I haven't given up yet. 0z RGEM looks a bit healthier with our southern stream and pops a low right on the La. coast at 48 hours. Comparing its precip field to the 12z GGEM at 60 hours, the 0z RGEM is somewhat more impressive. Grasping at straws? Maybe. But at least I'm not AirNelson. Yeah, it looks great for OK and AR, a super 6-10" snowstorm for the majority of the state. Got a nice SLP on the tip of the boot in LA and heading our way with plenty of cold air here and, poof, just like it's gone. Hard to fathom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, I haven't given up yet. 0z RGEM looks a bit healthier with our southern stream and pops a low right on the La. coast at 48 hours. Comparing its precip field to the 12z GGEM at 60 hours, the 0z RGEM is somewhat more impressive. Grasping at straws? Maybe. But at least I'm not AirNelson. Can you post any of the maps? I need something to give this ole weenie a soid false hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Can you post any of the maps? I need something to give this ole weenie a soid false hope!! I think this will get you some of that hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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