NEGa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Next time I see you, I'm going to show you the tab trick in SV makes seeing comparisons a snap. so yall arent remembering all the maps lol - i was wondering if people had great memories, or saved down all the images to compare, etc. looks like there is more to a pay site than i thought (and certainly worth looking into) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @45 it looks like the 18z NAM with a little less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @ 48HR, 1012mb LP off the LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The nam says this is going to be a big storm for part of Ks, Ok, and Ark. It hasn't waivered on that yet. Some areas get over .75" qpf, with excellent ratios. At 48 hours, I can't find the 850 low anymore, so thats not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The nam says this is going to be a big storm for part of Ks, Ok, and Ark. It hasn't waivered on that yet. Some areas get over .75" qpf, with excellent ratios. At 48 hours, I can't find the 850 low anymore, so thats not a good sign Its interesting, because looking at 500mb, this run is actually a bit better than 18z... lower heights over the s/w. The problem is, its also a little bit more broad, so that cancels out the effects a stronger shortwave somewhat... this might not look as good now, but I bet we see slightly higher precipitation amounts now across the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Its interesting, because looking at 500mb, this run is actually a bit better than 18z... lower heights over the s/w. The problem is, its also a little bit more broad, so that cancels out the effects a strong shortwave... this might not look as good now, but I bet we see slightly higher precipitation amounts now across the Carolinas. I don't know. At 57 hours my 850s are dropping and theres some qpf on all sides of here, north, east, south and west, nothing yet for the 85 corridor from Athens GSP CLT to GSO areas. Just saw the 60 hour. Same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't know. At 57 hours my 850s are dropping and theres some qpf on all sides of here, north, east, south and west, nothing yet for the 85 corridor from Athens GSP CLT to GSO areas. Just saw the 60 hour. Same thing. Yep amazing, just bone dry per the NAM. @60....Jeez why is it when the NAM is depicting this you can usually take it to the bank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Haha...okay. So what do we do if the NAM goes all dry on us, and the 0z GFS shows a decent storm.... then what? I'm going to get a headache out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't know. At 57 hours my 850s are dropping and theres some qpf on all sides of here, north, east, south and west, nothing yet for the 85 corridor from Athens GSP CLT to GSO areas. Just saw the 60 hour. Same thing. SREF is brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 for eastern NC, the heaviest precip has actually creeped closer to the coast at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @63 this is a hair pulling run for the 85 corridor and most of central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Central Mississippi gets hammered at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 lol. Large hole over western foothills and Piedmont @60 I don't know. At 57 hours my 850s are dropping and theres some qpf on all sides of here, north, east, south and west, nothing yet for the 85 corridor from Athens GSP CLT to GSO areas. Just saw the 60 hour. Same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The vort actually strengthened on this run crossing TN into western VA. But nary a flake here. Same at 63 hours. Certainly showing nothing or next to nothing on this side of the Apps. The dynamics and moisture are just bad to get this area I'm afraid. The 66 hour shows its over. Nada for this part of NC, really nothing much anywhere in Ala, Ga and the Carolinas, except coastal sections do get some from the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't know. At 57 hours my 850s are dropping and theres some qpf on all sides of here, north, east, south and west, nothing yet for the 85 corridor from Athens GSP CLT to GSO areas. Just saw the 60 hour. Same thing. Well the other problem is that the 500mb features are slightly quicker... so even though they are deeper, they are further east, which means less time to pick up gulf moisture. It would be nice to see this s/w grow deeper further to the west, so it has time to pick up the Gulf Moisture before heading out to sea. I don't know, overall I'd think the 500mb looks better and should be spitting out more precipitation than 18z based on the 500mb plot alone, yet its not... its strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Energy transfer to coast at 54. You can see the 700 rh field jump over western NC /upstate to eastern Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yep amazing, just bone dry per the NAM. @60....Jeez why is it when the NAM is depicting this you can usually take it to the bank? It looks to me like there is the potential to become one consolidated low in future runs? I certainly hope so, if the I-85 corridor hopes to have some accum snow out of this. Haven't been able to read through everything, but I think RW had a post about this earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The vort actually strengthened on this run crossing TN into western VA. But nary a flake here. Same at 63 hours. Certainly showing nothing or next to nothing on this side of the Apps. The dynamics and moisture are just bad to get this area I'm afraid. The 66 hour shows its over. Nada for this part of NC, really nothing much anywhere in Ala, Ga and the Carolinas, except coastal sections do get some from the transfer. That was just a downright depressing run for us....what a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 well we went from 3 strung out lows to 2 the coastal transfer has trended stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is just LOL worthy. I have a hard time believing this solution will occur. Either the 500mb plot will change to less amplification so less precipitation, or we end up with a wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Do you think that the GFS has scored a coup and every model will trend its way? It looks like it right now. I was hoping that tonight's runs would start the stronger and wetter trends. What was I thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 no one has mentioned the fact that the nams 2m temps are horrendous.... CLT is in the 40's by hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Why is it so hard to believe this could be what happens? Now the NAM, GFS, and GGEM are in their camp of low QPF from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Greenville probably gets 3-5" verbatim on the 0z NAM. Watch the Coastal as it seems to be getting stronger each run and is not far away from getting some significant action going in the eastern Carolinas. Even Raleigh might get an inch or two from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 SREF is brutal just saw it. Stays to our south barely. Well the other problem is that the 500mb features are slightly quicker... so even though they are deeper, they are further east, which means less time to pick up gulf moisture. It would be nice to see this s/w grow deeper further to the west, so it has time to pick up the Gulf Moisture before heading out to sea. I don't know, overall I'd think the 500mb looks better and should be spitting out more precipitation than 18z based on the 500mb plot alone, yet its not... its strange. I agree. The 5h is atleast discernable past the Miss. River. All models seem to be losing moisture, and I sure don'thave much hope here for anything, esp. right east of the mountains, where skippage is a problem anywhere unless theres a high in the ohio valley or northeast to help out with east winds. But for Ms, Ark and western Tn and part of Alabama I think its going to be a good snowfall, esp. further west you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Big time fail zone from Birmingham to Atlanta on the 00z NAM. H5 looks the best on any NAM run so far. Yet, meager precip output and multiple lows with energy transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is just LOL worthy. I have a hard time believing this solution will occur. Either the 500mb plot will change to less amplification so less precipitation, or we end up with a wetter solution. It looks like Burger's Bermuda Snow Triangle has expanded 100 miles in each direction!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It looks to me like there is the potential to become one consolidated low in future runs? I certainly hope so, if the I-85 corridor hopes to have some accum snow out of this. Haven't been able to read through everything, but I think RW had a post about this earlier? Yep keep it consolidated and we'd be in business. Instead we end up getting this. Ive seen this pic multiple times and know exactly why the models show a Carolina split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 no one has mentioned the fact that the nams 2m temps are horrendous.... CLT is in the 40's by hr 66 I would have to think that it's probably colder where precip is actually falling in the eastern Carolinas, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z NAM was faster than 12z and I don't think it dug enough to properly tap the gulf. Way too fast for substantial moisture transport. Hence the drier and GFS like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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