Lowpressure Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Had nice blue skies here before the sun went down, in the nice black hole for precipitation of central NC. I just hope this next storm does not trend like this storm does, right now it looks awefully like what the modeling is showing for the upcoming storm. Plenty of precip, west, south, and east, but nothing here. I didn't even get a sprinkle today... Look to your ssw my friend, some rain is coming, Maybe a brief flurry on the back edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Welcome to Amwx.. Post often!! I completely agree Bing....glad to see you post over here. I enjoyed your input over at TW...too bad someone had a personal agenda against me there. It wouldn't suprise me to see our totals continue to ramp up from here on out...this could be another good one! btw, all rain with the line moving into the county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I completely agree Bing....glad to see you post over here. I enjoyed your input over at TW...too bad someone had a personal agenda against me there. It wouldn't suprise me to see our totals continue to ramp up from here on out...this could be another good one! Welcome to Amwx! Glad to have another Alabama poster because usually what you get we get in one way or another. I got family up in Gadsden. On topic now, light rain just ended here 45oF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Is this an observation thread or model discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Is this an observation thread or model discussion? I guess both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 no one talking, are we giving up on this one or is everyone getting they're second wind, still have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just looking at the WV loop, and its a pretty healthy spin in southern Idaho and northern Utah/ne Nevada. I think Phil mentioned how the RUC is already stronger than the models, I haven't looked at that yet, but now this is totally in the data network, tonights runs should have good coverage, and I won't be suprised to see a few substantial changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just looking at the WV loop, and its a pretty healthy spin in southern Idaho and northern Utah/ne Nevada. I think Phil mentioned how the RUC is already stronger than the models, I haven't looked at that yet, but now this is totally in the data network, tonights runs should have good coverage, and I won't be suprised to see a few substantial changes. The latest run of the RUC actually has a nice circular closed off 540 contour in Northern Colorado for a few frames. No other models ever had it closing off I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just looking at the WV loop, and its a pretty healthy spin in southern Idaho and northern Utah/ne Nevada. I think Phil mentioned how the RUC is already stronger than the models, I haven't looked at that yet, but now this is totally in the data network, tonights runs should have good coverage, and I won't be suprised to see a few substantial changes. That's what we're hoping for...care to give us something in the beginning to look out for? I'm guessing this biggest thing will be a stronger s/w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The latest run of the RUC actually has a nice circular closed off 540 contour in Northern Colorado for a few frames. No other models ever had it closing off I don't think. I'll be checking it out soon That's what we're hoping for...care to give us something in the beginning to look out for? I'm guessing this biggest thing will be a stronger s/w? If its closed at all, there was one run 3 or 4 days ago in which the Euro had a closed low in Colo. I think, but then lost it. The stronger, the better. I think we have the general track of it coming across the Red River, then heading east, northeast, generally across E. Tn/WNC region (but by then, all models have almost sheared it totally). If it were to hold together much better, more precip. Right now, all models have been pointed to Ok, and ARK as the area where there's the best convergence, a long lived 850 low and an inverted trough, so I don't think that changes. The big question is how quickly it dies when it comes toward us. Hard to believe it dies as quickly as the models show, b/c the longwave axis is actually in a good alignment to atleast help it maintain its strength, and the confluence in the Northeast isn't that strong..I 've seen systems survive here with much more confluence up there, so not sure why the models do kill it. But they see something I guess. Anyway, had a band of heavy rain, and large drops just move through. Looking under the floodlights I see the drops are huge, so I know its wet snow that doesn't survive the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'll agree on the consistency part but the QPF double part is a wait and see. Now with our big January storm we were dealing with a similar situation where we had a shortwave moving from TX to the SE and was progged to get sheared out along the way. The models trended drier as we got within the 3 day period and if my memory serves me correctly the EURO almost lost the storm in this time frame. Also if I remember correctly the NAM was the first to ramp up the QPF and the GFS followed within 24 hours. Typically the NAM is a "follower" and not a "leader". I'm not saying this will happen again but there are similarities. The big key difference with the NAM is that it keeps our southern shortwave more separated from the PV way up north which allows it to stay stronger longer. That is what we need to happen obviously. Now the 12z NAM is fixing to roll so we shall see if the NAM holds serve but history says the NAM will be a follower. Now the good thing for MBY is that I'm in the jackpot for QPF for GA with both the 6z NAM and the 6z GFS....well at least no one in GA gets more QPF than me with the 6z GFS which is ZIP. LOL Us Dahlonegian's always have each others back regardless. I am sticking to my guns with 2-4 inches for our location. How do you see it playing out as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'll be checking it out soon If its closed at all, there was one run 3 or 4 days ago in which the Euro had a closed low in Colo. I think, but then lost it. The stronger, the better. I think we have the general track of it coming across the Red River, then heading east, northeast, generally across E. Tn/WNC region (but by then, all models have almost sheared it totally). If it were to hold together much better, more precip. Right now, all models have been pointed to Ok, and ARK as the area where there's the best convergence, a long lived 850 low and an inverted trough, so I don't think that changes. The big question is how quickly it dies when it comes toward us. Hard to believe it dies as quickly as the models show, b/c the longwave axis is actually in a good alignment to atleast help it maintain its strength, and the confluence in the Northeast isn't that strong..I 've seen systems survive here with much more confluence up there, so not sure why the models do kill it. But they see something I guess. Anyway, had a band of heavy rain, and large drops just move through. Looking under the floodlights I see the drops are huge, so I know its wet snow that doesn't survive the trip. As always, thank you for the updates Robert! FWIW...just had a burst of flurries here in Belmont, NC. Its trying to get going. Radar returns not promising though. Hoping the runs tonight show some better promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The NAM has started. I don't really pay much credence to the 6z and 18z so I'll be interested to see if it still looks as good at 66 hour and 72 as it did, esp. with the track of the 850 low in northern Alabama...and see how other things trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Right off the bat, 00z NAM is stronger than the 12z NAM with the s/w @ 6HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The NAM has started. I don't really pay much credence to the 6z and 18z so I'll be interested to see if it still looks as good at 66 hour and 72 as it did, esp. with the track of the 850 low in northern Alabama...and see how other things trend. Are you gonna gives us some PBP Robert? We need some good trends to start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'll be checking it out soon If its closed at all, there was one run 3 or 4 days ago in which the Euro had a closed low in Colo. I think, but then lost it. The stronger, the better. I think we have the general track of it coming across the Red River, then heading east, northeast, generally across E. Tn/WNC region (but by then, all models have almost sheared it totally). If it were to hold together much better, more precip. Right now, all models have been pointed to Ok, and ARK as the area where there's the best convergence, a long lived 850 low and an inverted trough, so I don't think that changes. The big question is how quickly it dies when it comes toward us. Hard to believe it dies as quickly as the models show, b/c the longwave axis is actually in a good alignment to atleast help it maintain its strength, and the confluence in the Northeast isn't that strong..I 've seen systems survive here with much more confluence up there, so not sure why the models do kill it. But they see something I guess. Anyway, had a band of heavy rain, and large drops just move through. Looking under the floodlights I see the drops are huge, so I know its wet snow that doesn't survive the trip. I'm curious to see how it will match up against the RUC. I saved that 500mb run of the Euro that gave a large part of the SE a significant snowstorm. Just look at the comparison... very close to what the RUC has. 15hr forecast of the 00z RUC: 00z Euro On Saturday... the run that crush the Carolinas and Georgia with close to 1" plus precipitation. Notice any similarities Granted our event has sped up a little bit (by about 12 hours or so) but the similarities are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 S/w very stout and still stronger than 12z @ 18HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 As always, thank you for the updates Robert! FWIW...just had a burst of flurries here in Belmont, NC. Its trying to get going. Radar returns not promising though. Hoping the runs tonight show some better promise! If we're gong to have all these different threads lets stick to the subject. This thread clearly states FEB 8-12 model discussion. Today is the 7th. No excuse for obs, especially form outside the clearly sated parameter of this sub-sub-sub-sub-sub thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 There ya go Phil...... Thanks for the comparison . I'm curious to see how it will match up against the RUC. I saved that 500mb run of the Euro that gave a large part of the SE a significant snowstorm. Just look at the comparison... very close to what the RUC has. 15hr forecast of the 00z RUC: 00z Euro On Saturday... the run that crush the Carolinas and Georgia with close to 1" plus precipitation. Notice any similarities Granted our event has sped up a little bit (by about 12 hours or so) but the similarities are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 S/w very stout and still stronger than 12z @ 18HR. Yep out to 24 still stronger and that energy to the north isn't as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Not sure if this NAM run is going to be better... already significantly different than the RUC at 15 hrs... not nearly as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @ 24HR, the northeastern confluence isn't nearly as strong. Looks like it's scooting out of the way. Might keep our s/w intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 so far, no big changes on it that I can notice, but I don't have the 12z recollected too well. The 850 Zero does touch the Gulf Coast in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 One question I have, I obviously can't seem to figure out if a s/w is stronger or not, anyone care to clue me in outside of the obvious? It looked like it was stronger then it's 18z run but I guess it wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 so far, no big changes on it that I can notice, but I don't have the 12z recollected too well. The 850 Zero does touch the Gulf Coast in 24 hours. Next time I see you, I'm going to show you the tab trick in SV makes seeing comparisons a snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't recall most of Kansas slated to be in .50" or greater qpf, but the NAM has a good chunk of the state covered in snow. Great ratios, 850s well down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 One question I have, I obviously can't seem to figure out if a s/w is stronger or not, anyone care to clue me in outside of the obvious? It looked like it was stronger then it's 18z run but I guess it wasn't. Sometimes you have to look at different fields. Its not only about the depth of the s/w, but also its orientation and width. A very sharp s/w might have the same depth as a very broad s/w, but the fact that all the vorticity is kept is a much smaller area makes is much more powerful for generating precipitation in that particular region. What I'm seeing actually is that the 700mb low is actually weaker on the 00z run than even 18z, so its likely not going to be a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like the NAM is a tad faster than 12z @ 36HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Sometimes you have to look at different fields. Its not only about the depth of the s/w, but also its orientation and width. A very sharp s/w might have the same depth as a very broad s/w, but the fact that all the vorticity is kept is a much smaller area makes is much more powerful for generating precipitation in that particular region. What I'm seeing actually is that the 700mb low is actually weaker on the 00z run than even 18z, so its likely not going to be a great run. True. I'm looking at the broad 5H look and at 36 it looks pretty good to me so far. Theres still a vort in NM and AZ that will dig into the base of it, probably around eastern Tx,La area. It may be a little north at 36, but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Sometimes you have to look at different fields. Its not only about the depth of the s/w, but also its orientation and width. A very sharp s/w might have the same depth as a very broad s/w, but the fact that all the vorticity is kept is a much smaller area makes is much more powerful for generating precipitation in that particular region. What I'm seeing actually is that the 700mb low is actually weaker on the 00z run than even 18z, so its likely not going to be a great run. True. I'm looking at the broad 5H look and at 36 it looks pretty good to me so far. Theres still a vort in NM and AZ that will dig into the base of it, probably around eastern Tx,La area. It may be a little north at 36, but I'm not sure. Thanks guys, sounds like I need to have 20 tabs open instead of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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