buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like a little bit of everything amounting to alot of nothing...lol 18Z NAM CAE 110210/0900Z 63 04008KT 36.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 16| 30| 53 110210/1000Z 64 03008KT 35.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 49| 17| 34 110210/1100Z 65 02007KT 33.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.031|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 79| 0| 21 110210/1200Z 66 02008KT 33.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.028|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 87| 0| 13 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/1300Z 67 03008KT 32.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.6 0.055|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12 110210/1400Z 68 03008KT 32.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 1.0 0.047|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 90| 0| 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z RGEM to 48HR looks stout! http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think it's just the GFS. Not sure what it's problem is with shortwaves diving from the NW but it just doesn't know how to handle them. I think GAME ON! I agree. Unless models trend towards the GFS IMO it's game on. I mean the 18Z GFS is a non-event for everyone east of MS, WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 how can something that stout just die out, I just don't see it. I agree. Unless models trend towards the GFS IMO it's game on. I mean the 18Z GFS is a non-event for everyone east of MS, WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z RGEM in motion. Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trey1716 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Watch this thing just keep expanding and keep rolling across the country...I agree can't see this thing of this magintude in OK/ARK just fizzle out...possible, I guess, but not likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree. Unless models trend towards the GFS IMO it's game on. I mean the 18Z GFS is a non-event for everyone east of MS, WTF? i just saw that and had to do a double-check. 18z gfs is nothing for anyone lol how can something that stout just die out, I just don't see it. that, unfortunately, can happen...heavy rain moves from al to ga and dries up quickly. (no i do not believe that to be the case this time. at least i sure as fire hope not) as others have mentioned - at this point , unless the other models start following the gfs, i think there will be snow across the se this week. i am much less confident on just how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 that, unfortunately, can happen...heavy rain moves from al to ga and dries up quickly. (no i do not believe that to be the case this time. at least i sure as fire hope not) You mean to tell me that big body of water down south called the Gulf of Mexico doesn't feed any moisture into this system? I call shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 how can something that stout just die out, I just don't see it. No true gulf tap..it almost works like a clipper just rings it's self out and then it's done...and even when it does the transfer of that low as shown on previous models is what kills it. Not throwing in the towel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 You mean to tell me that big body of water down south called the Gulf of Mexico doesn't feed any moisture into this system? I call shenanigans. thats the fine line lol. if it taps the gulf and is stronger, in comes the warmer air. if its not as strong the colder air stays in, but we dont get a lot of qpf. what we need are high ratios to make a little seem like a lot i dont think its really supposed to get a good fetch going off the gulf this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z RGEM in motion. Looks pretty healthy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z RGEM in motion. Looks pretty healthy to me. That s/w certainly looks a lot better..but the million dollar question is what it does after 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Screw GuFuS. We have better models to watch. The HPC is showing almost 2.5" in the Gulf. It almost looks like they're expecting convection to cut off the moisture further north OR figure the cold air will keep it futher south, I don't know. But there's a lot of moisture showing up if we can just get it in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ???I'm confused about tonight Tonight Mostly cloudy. Rain likely with possible snow or thunderstorms this evening...then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with lows around 30. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nice Greenland block on the 12z GFS today in the long range. Don't know if it's legit but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 That .25 line needs to be moved into more of the central midlands of SC in my opinion. The latest 18z NAM came in with exactly .25 qpf as all snow for CAE btw. The op GFS did this with the last storm up until 24 hrs or less out while the NAM got heavier and we ended up with a pretty major 4-7 inch snow around SC. The Euro and UKMET are good for the low's track and both fit climo pretty well for this time of year although their precip shields are most likely off as they usually always are. This storm is knocking on last year's Feb 12th storm since it will be coming around the 11th so I will definitely buy the Euro's track but a little further Southward and a larger area of nicer precip. As long as the GFS and GGEM (which the RGEM is quite healtier btw) OP runs are too dry which GFS ensembles show, I think ATL, CAE, MYB, could all end up with something to end the Winter with the current trends. The local guys took sleet/snow 70% out for this area replaced it with rain/snow 50% weds night and Thursday. With the storm's potential track and climo once again, I'd expect to see this change and I-20 being the dividing line once again so anyone North of I-20 should be mainly snow and just South the mix. Surface temps look like they could inhibit much in the way of major accumulation across I-20 though! After tonight's 00z Euro/UKMet run, I think I'll stick with the Hi-Res WRF, RUC, GFS, SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 ???I'm confused about tonight Tonight Mostly cloudy. Rain likely with possible snow or thunderstorms this evening...then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with lows around 30. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. had about 15 minutes of heavy snow go through dusted the ground temp 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Screw GuFuS. We have better models to watch. The HPC is showing almost 2.5" in the Gulf. It almost looks like they're expecting convection to cut off the moisture further north OR figure the cold air will keep it futher south, I don't know. But there's a lot of moisture showing up if we can just get it in the right place. It would be interesting to see a freezing line superimposed on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It would be interesting to see a freezing line superimposed on this. The line for low enough 850's and sfc temps would probably be something like this based on most of the models verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Kinda wondering, but is there a threat for thunderstorms across the Gulf coast/Florida? Gotta think of a reason why we would be robbed of moisture. If there's thunderstorms down there, then all of the energy and moisture will go towards that, and it would ruin our QPF totals across N Alabama, Georgia, SC/NC. I say this after looking at the HPC map posted above. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 had about 15 minutes of heavy snow go through dusted the ground temp 37 I got rain with big wet flakes mixed in right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Awesome Bo.. Will need to keep an eye out. I got rain with big wet flakes mixed in right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Awesome Bo.. Will need to keep an eye out. Only lasted about 10min. but was enough to wet the porch. You could tell that the majority were melted all the way into rain but some held together at nickel size. Made supper go down real good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I got rain with big wet flakes mixed in right now! I thought something might happen tonight!! I'll be keeping my eyes to the sky at work tonight. Not being concerned about "How much" or "Where" is kind of a relief. Just gonna watch it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If burrel looks hard enough he will see some in a minute. That line has intensified a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 If burrel looks hard enough he will see some in a minute. That line has intensified a bit. Whoops!! I wasn't paying attention to radar and let that cell slip through mby without seeing if there was snow mixed in. My wife is on her way home from Greenville so I told her to watch for flakes on the windshield. She should be driving through the heaviest echoes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadTrends Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM in motion. Looks pretty healthy to me. I completely agree Bing....glad to see you post over here. I enjoyed your input over at TW...too bad someone had a personal agenda against me there. It wouldn't suprise me to see our totals continue to ramp up from here on out...this could be another good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just got in and saw the 18z NAM. Nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Had nice blue skies here before the sun went down, in the nice black hole for precipitation of central NC. I just hope this next storm does not trend like this storm does, right now it looks awefully like what the modeling is showing for the upcoming storm. Plenty of precip, west, south, and east, but nothing here. I didn't even get a sprinkle today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Had nice blue skies here before the sun went down, in the nice black hole for precipitation of central NC. I just hope this next storm does not trend like this storm does, right now it looks awefully like what the modeling is showing for the upcoming storm. Plenty of precip, west, south, and east, but nothing here. I didn't even get a sprinkle today... Day ain't over yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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