GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Keep in mind that is 6 hour totals between hour 66 and 72 and it doesn't show the totals between hours 60 and 66. I wish I knew why the makers of the uk only give 6 hour totals through 48 hours but then only show 6 hour totals for hours 60 and 72. It's just stupid. Oh, dang. I forgot about this and, therefore, underdid ATL-AHN on the UKMET. I had said ~1.5" based on hours 66-72. However, I'm confident that based on the hour 60 maps (such as 700 mb RH, qpf) that there'd be about that much in addition just for hours 60-66. Therefore, I've decied to up the 12Z UKMET ATL-AHN amount from 1.5" to 3.0" So, here is the corrected summary for 12Z: NAM: 4" UKMET: 3" rough est. Euro: 2.5" JMA: 1.5" GGEM: 1" GFS: 0" Avg.: 2" Based on this higher UKMET amount, I've decided to go with the following for ATL (even higher than what I said earlier this afternoon): None: 15% Trace: 15% 0.1-1" 20% 1.1-2" 20% 2.1-4" 20% 4.1"+ 10% I'd now go with ~2" for ATL-AHN if a gun were pointed at my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I really hope this storm ramps up. It would be nice to have one more snow day. Nice thing is that the NAM is entering the moderate snowfall accumulation zone....hope is returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Oh, dang. I forgot about this and, therefore, underdid ATL-AHN on the UKMET. I had said ~1.5" based on hours 66-72. However, I'm confident that based on the hour 60 maps (such as 700 mb RH, qpf) that there'd be about that much in addition just for hours 60-66. Therefore, I've decied to up the 12Z UKMET ATL-AHN amount from 1.5" to 3.0" So, here is the corrected summary for 12Z: NAM: 4" UKMET: 3" rough est. Euro: 2.5" JMA: 1.5" GGEM: 1" GFS: 0" Avg.: 2" Based on this higher UKMET amount, I've decided to go with the following for ATL (even higher than what I said earlier this afternoon): None: 15% Trace: 15% 0.1-1" 20% 1.1-2" 20% 2.1-4" 20% 4.1"+ 10% I'd now go with ~2" for ATL-AHN if a gun were pointed at my head. Why not factor in the GFS ensembles? Pretty much all show >.10" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'll take that and like it...hopefully the 18z leads the way and gets wetter. Absolutely.... hopefully its a trend and not a joke. To my quick glance sref may be a tad more moist as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Absolutely.... hopefully its a trend and not a joke. To my quick glance sref may be a tad more moist as well. While the SREF is nothing to be excited about I was sure at 9z it had nothing. Can't recall though and since StormVista's SREF maps are all screwed up I can't check (sorry to lazy to google). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hey Cheez got an update on the Euro Ensembles? I know they usually come out around this time right? Or is it usually closer to 4 that they come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yes, the 15Z SREF is more moist than the 9Z. Here is the 9Z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Why not factor in the GFS ensembles? Pretty much all show >.10" QPF. I think your idea has merit, especially due to the gfs being such a dry outlier. However, based on past storm experiences with ensemble mean qpf for storms only a few days away, I've gotten the impression that they tend to be less reliable vs. the respective operational in general that close to the event. Therefore, I usually stick to only the straight operational qpf for these types of analyses as opposed to either substituting or averaging in the ensemble mean with the operational. Also, keep in mind that the past several op. gfs runs have had no qpf. So, it isn't as if just this one op. gfs had nothing. So, I feel the op. gfs' zero qpf deserves to be in the mix especially since it isn't the worst model in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yes, the 15Z SREF is more moist than the 9Z. Here is the 9Z SREF. Thanks! Now we just got to keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think your idea has merit, espcially due to the gfs being such a dry outlier. However, based on past storm experiences with ensemble mean qpf for storms only a few days away, I've gotten the impression that they tend to be less reliable in general that close to the event. Therefore, I usually stick to only the straight operational qpf for these types of analyses as opposed to either substituting or averaging in the ensemble mean with the operational. Also, keep in mind that the past several op. gfs runs have had no qpf. So, it isn't as if just this one op. gfs had nothing. So, I feel the op. gfs' zero qpf deserves to be in the mix especially since it isn't the worst model in the world. Alrighty then...but I wasn't really referring to ensemble mean but looking at each member panel as ALL of them show >.10" QPF. But...I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This system kind of reminds me of the Christmas storm to a certain degree, in terms of QPF amounts leading up to the storm. It may b wishful thinking, but were we not seeing issues with amounts 3 days before and then the models started catching back on? Didn't our "awesome" (tongue in cheek)?American models play catchup with forecasted totals, even during the storm? Lastly, I THINK we have a much colder look this go round? Thanks for any input! Yes you are correct but the lack of qpf on models for that storm was due to the lack of a phase on the models 2-3 days out. With this storm we have no phase so qpf won't be increasing like in that storm. I say .1-.35 qpf for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM rolling in.... Thru hour 39 our shortwave looks a tad stronger and pretty much in the same spot as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM rolling in.... Thru hour 39 our shortwave looks a tad stronger and pretty much in the same spot as the 12z run. Looks wetter to me @48 but not by too much. Gonna be interesting to see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Sweet Rose of Sharon! Just called up the Bufkit for Faynam .... 6 inches of snow at 15 to 18-1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hey Cheez got an update on the Euro Ensembles? I know they usually come out around this time right? Or is it usually closer to 4 that they come out? 12Z Euro ens mean a little wetter vs. 0Z Euro ens. mean fwiw: CLT: ~0.15" 12Z vs. ~0.10" 0Z ATL-AHN: ~0.20" 12Z vs. ~0.10" 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12Z Euro ens mean a little wetter vs. 0Z Euro ens. mean fwiw: CHT: ~0.15" 12Z vs. ~0.10" 0Z ATL-AHN: ~0.20" 12Z vs. ~0.10" 0Z Cool thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM @60 has more moisture on the NW side of the bulk of moisture but hard to know how that translates down field. Is it just me or does it look funky on the 500mb charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM shifting major snow axis east. 0.50-0.75 showing up now in western MS versus the 12z run. Also, arkansas gets hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 @66 looks like it's following the GFS, not as much qpf in GA as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Man, the models keep showing this strung out, multi low set up, i keep wondering if they are going to consolidate them into one primary low, if that happened we would have a much more organized storm with more qpf. Notice 3 main areas of lift on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 BTW there is a weak low crossing the FL panhandle...it looks stronger then what the 12z NAM depicted...would that affect our storm as far as helping push more moisture up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Is arkansas going to get a foot of snow? NAM seems to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Man, the models keep showing this strung out, multi low set up, i keep wondering if they are going to consolidate them into one primary low, if that happened we would have a much more organized storm with more qpf. Notice 3 main areas of lift on the NAM. I see you pretty much answered the question I had. The NAM seems to be trending that low in the panhandle stronger...if it keeps it up could we be in business with them being consolidated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I see you pretty much answered the question I had. The NAM seems to be trending that low in the panhandle stronger...if it keeps it up could we be in business with them being consolidated? I wonder if we are trending back towards the consolidated low the models had days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well this run was a step backwards for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Is arkansas going to get a foot of snow? NAM seems to think so. I just talked to a lady in Little Rock, and she said they were supposed to get 6"-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wow, the NAM is 'hanging on' to the moisture with the arrival of the trailing vort...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM -- 5h maps looked better, surface looked worse. That's why they call it the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Atlanta looks like it has some boundary issues at the start(Hour 60), but quickly changes over to Snow at hours 61-63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 HPC Days 2 & 3. Hot off the presses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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